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欧洲外交关系委员会民调显示，大多数欧洲人将中国视作“必要伙伴”
刘程辉 2023-06-07 观察者网
【文/观察者网 刘程辉】“欧洲人如今将俄罗斯视为敌人，而不是中国。”《纽约时报》6月7日以此为题报道了一项最新出炉的欧洲民调结果。报道称，尽管法国和德国与中国的互动引发了美国方面的不满，但大多数欧洲受访者仍将中国视作“必要的伙伴”，并没有如美国精英期望的那样同中国对抗。民调还显示，一旦中美围绕台湾问题爆发冲突，大多数欧洲人希望保持中立，而非支持美国对抗中国。
今年4月，欧洲外交关系委员会对11个欧盟成员国的6000多人开启了这项民意调查，涉及欧洲与中国和俄罗斯的关系，调查结果于7日公布。上一次类似的调查是在2021年。
民调显示，俄乌冲突的爆发对欧洲人对待俄罗斯的态度产生了较大影响，约有64%的受访者将俄罗斯视作“竞争对手或敌人”，而两年前这一比例约为三分之一。
至于欧洲与中国的关系，调查表明，欧洲人在许多方面更倾向于马克龙的对华接触战略，而非冯德莱恩的对华强硬政策，大部分受访者不认为中国是一个想要挑战和破坏欧洲的大国，也不相信拜登政府推动的所谓“民主与专制”框架。
受访者回应欧洲应该如何看待中国
与2021年的民调结果相比，欧洲人对中国的看法几乎没有发生太大变化，在所有受访者中，只有约35%的人将中国视作“竞争对手或敌人”，几乎每个国家的受访者都普遍认为，中国是欧洲的“必要合作伙伴”。
就具体国家而言，保加利亚对华持积极态度的比例最高，有约三分之二（66%）的受访者认为中国是欧洲的“盟友或必要的伙伴”，只有10%的人选择了“竞争对手或敌人”；匈牙利、西班牙、荷兰认为中国是“盟友或必要伙伴”的受访者比例均超过了一半。
所有11个国家中，只有德国、法国、丹麦和瑞典四国的主流观点认为中国是“竞争对手或敌人”。其中，只有31%的法国人和33%的德国人将中国视为“必要伙伴”，而50%的德国人和41%的法国人将中国视为“竞争对手或敌人”。
若中美围绕台湾问题爆发冲突，欧洲受访者所持立场
民调还显示，一旦中美围绕台湾问题爆发冲突，大多数（62%）欧洲受访者希望保持中立，而非支持美国对抗中国，支持美国的比例仅为23%。
选择“支持中国或保持中立”比例最高的前四个国家分别为奥地利、保加利亚、匈牙利和西班牙。选择“支持美国”比例最高的前四个国家分别为瑞典、波兰、荷兰以及丹麦。
民调的联合作者、欧洲外交关系委员会官员亚娜·普格里林（Jana Puglierin）表示，总的来说，“欧洲人准备赞扬跨大西洋关系，并看到了更多的好处而不是风险，但他们不认为这伴随着义务。他们不认为台湾问题是美国战略的基本组成部分，也不认为它与乌克兰有关”。“尽管美国对欧洲进行了大量投资，但人们很少意识到不站在美国一边会有什么问题，他们认为中立也是一种选择。”
Europeans Now See Russia as an Adversary, but Not China
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/07/world/europe/europe-russia-china-poll.html#:~:text=
An extensive poll of 11 European countries finds citizens less eager for competition and rivalry with China than Washington — or European elites — have become.
President Emmanuel Macron of France and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, during a welcoming ceremony in Beijing in April.Credit...Ludovic Marin/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
When Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France recently made separate but friendly visits to China, it sparked considerable dismay among their fellow leaders in Europe and Washington.
Especially given Beijing’s “no-limits partnership” with Russia, the efforts to treat China as what Mr. Macron called “a strategic and global partner,” rather than as a rival, were met with sometimes caustic criticism.
Yet, an extensive opinion poll released on Wednesday, shows that Europeans tend to agree with them.
Even as Beijing moves closer to Moscow, and despite the war in Ukraine, a majority of Europeans still see China predominantly as “a necessary partner,” according to the poll of more than 6,000 people in 11 E.U. member states carried out in April by the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The poll indicates that majorities in all 11 countries are unwilling to support the United States against China if there were to be a military escalation between these two powers and would wish to remain neutral.
At the same time, Russia is increasingly seen as an adversary or rival, a view held by some 64 percent of respondents, an increase from about a third of respondents when the same question was posed in a 2021 poll.
“Europeans clearly see the Russia-China alliance and that it’s formed against the West, but they treat them differently,” said Jana Puglierin, co-author of the report accompanying the poll. “That only changes if China supplies arms to Russia.”
Indeed, 41 percent of Europeans would support economic sanctions against China if Beijing were to provide significant military aid to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, while 33 percent would oppose that step.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points in larger countries and plus or minus three percentage points in smaller ones.
While wishing to cooperate with Beijing on global issues like climate change, European leaders officially consider China a “systemic rival” and “economic competitor,” according to their “strategic compass,” the European Union’s strategy paper.
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, in a speech in late March, took a tough line on Beijing, saying that it was entering a new era of “security and control,” had a policy of “divide and conquer” and that Europe must “de-risk” key sectors from dependence on China.
Her views are closer to those of the Biden administration, but European opinion is closer to the views of Mr. Macron, Ms. Puglierin said.
Yet Mr. Macron was widely criticized for his comments after visiting China’s president Xi Jinping in April, when he said that Europe should not be “followers” on Taiwan or “adapt ourselves to an American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.”
He said that it would be “a trap for Europe” to get caught up in crises “that are not ours.” Europeans should continue to develop their own strategic autonomy and become a “third pole” in the world order, and not risk becoming “vassals” in a U.S.-China confrontation. Like Mr. Scholz, Mr. Macron downplayed any rivalry and said that China was “a strategic and global partner.”
Still, while France and Germany are the main partners for Beijing, “the reality is that French businesses are disillusioned with the Chinese market, and the long-term picture for Sino-French economic partnership looks gloomy at best,” cautioned Philippe Le Corre, a scholar of China with the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.
For him, the most important finding of the survey is that French and German respondents have fairly negative views of China, with only 31 percent of the French and 33 percent of Germans seeing China as a “partner,” while 50 percent of Germans and 41 percent of the French see China as a rival or an adversary.
That would seem to leave both leaders, even if more in tune with European sentiments, on more challenging ground at home, but perhaps making it easier for Germany in particular to reduce its significant economy dependency on trade with China, especially in the key automotive sector.
Elsewhere, Mr. Le Corre said, Europeans were either “largely apathetic” about China or wary, especially of Chinese investment in European infrastructure, tech companies and the media. “Europeans do not want an increase in Chinese foreign direct investments — so much for the Belt and Road Initiative,” Mr. Le Corre said, referring to China’s push to build ports, rail lines and telecommunications networks around the world.
Views on Russia have hardened, with majorities seeing Russia as an adversary, with growing doubts about Moscow even in traditionally sympathetic France and Italy, pointed out Pawel Zerka, a co-author of the report.
Roughly half of all respondents believe that even after a peace in Ukraine, future relations with Russia should be “limited.” But in Bulgaria and Hungary a majority of respondents viewed Russia as an “ally” or “partner” and in general would like to cooperate with Moscow after the war.
While views of the United States as an ally have improved from 2021, when Donald J. Trump was president, roughly three-quarters of respondents believe that Europe should reduce its security dependence on Washington and invest more in its own defense. Some 56 percent of all respondents said that the re-election of Mr. Trump would weaken trans-Atlantic relations.
In general, Ms. Puglierin said, “Europeans are ready to praise the trans-Atlantic relationship and see more benefits than risks, but don’t see that it comes with obligations. They don’t see that Taiwan is considered a fundamental part of U.S. strategy or that it is linked with Ukraine,” or to the protection of the Pacific sea lanes on which European trade depends.
“There is little awareness that it would be problematic not to side with the U.S. after it has invested so much in Europe,” she said. “They see neutrality as an option.”
Steven Erlanger is the chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe, based in Brussels. He previously reported from London, Paris, Jerusalem, Berlin, Prague, Moscow and Bangkok. @StevenErlanger
