先说说Trump的名字,中文翻译为”特朗普”或者”川普”,但我还是习惯用英文称呼.字典里Trump是王牌,击败或取胜的意思.最近Hilary Clinton演讲中说:”Love trump hate”,爱战胜仇恨,一语双关,用他的名字影射他某些被看作散布仇恨的竞选观念-驱逐非法移民,建筑边墙,短期内严禁穆斯林教徒入境. 但我们也可以用这个字表示对Trump支持,比如说”Trump is winning by trumping the establishment, the rigged system and PC” (Trump因打败了当权者,选举舞弊,和政治正确而赢得胜利.)而且Trump和Triumph(胜利)字面相近, Trump竞选中常说到胜利,他正以行动证明这个诺言,这也是人民对未来的期待,所以我喜欢称呼他-Trump.
前段时间Trump竞选之程一波三折,媒体从各个角度审视他,任何语误都要揪出来24/7反复讨论,比审查犯人还要严格,不讲理,选情充满悬念,连输Utah, Wisconsin两个州,Colorado, Wyoming 的delegates也被Cruz以所谓”地面部署”(ground game/strategy)的方式席卷,不过自从竞选移师到纽约后,Trump的战局越来越开朗,他作为总统候选人的能力也越来越强大.直到Indiana初选再次毫无异议表明民众的心愿,RNC主席随即宣布Trump成为既定提名人(Presumptive Nomiee).在事实面前,媒体开始公正对待Trump了,不再讥讽他或一味批评他的言论举止了,因为他们也意识到选民不买媒体的帐,有自己的判断.这个竞选中选民显然不相信传统的政客和媒体,而乐于支持一个最不像政客的总统候选人.我感觉,识事务的主流媒体正在变,虽然大部分学者评论家还是带着挑剔的眼光,但是他们都把他放在一个完全有可能成为总统的位置上,认真对待他的每句话每个动作,甚至某些媒体主持人开始为他说话了.
经过十个月的艰难跋涉,来自全方位360角度的攻击,受到全世界的偏见敌意,Trump终于可以放松一下了.回顾他的竞选之路,可谓惊心动魄,323天每天24小时都是关于他的新闻和争论, 从来没有一个人像他这样如同一股飓风,扫荡整个政治制度和主流文化.以一人之力对付全国媒体所有政敌和四面八方的反对势力,令人佩服的是无论在什么境况下,他从来没有惊慌失措或者畏惧退缩,借用网友的话,在硝烟弥漫的战场上,他的西装连皱折都没有.这样的风范让我想到侠客,不过他既不是忠厚老实的郭靖,也不是痴情叛逆的杨过,不是正义凛然的萧峰,也不是滑头多情的韦小宝.
如果你看过电视剧”浪迹天涯”(吴若甫主演)也许记得足智多谋的主人公秦涧泉.英雄通常都要过三关闯六将,吃尽苦头,先被小人陷害,再被恶人折磨个半死才能战胜邪恶,取得胜利,秦涧泉却不然,他断案如神,轻松识穿小人的伎俩,坏人在他面前丑态百出,无计可施,一败涂地,他游山玩水, 笑看风云,一路有忠诚随从,何人不识君,知己满天下. Trump 和他有很多共同之处,首先都有三两拨千斤的功夫,不管对方来头多大,多么老谋深算,Trump都能轻松收拾他们,从low-energy Jeb, little Marco 到 Lyin’ Ted,他不光在选举中打败他们,还有办法让他们出尽洋相.看看上周Cruz最后挣扎的滑稽表现,他刚经过一串失败,却高调宣布选了副总统人选,这个举动引来众多窃笑,连CNN也借用网络评论说下周失败后不知道他要选谁组内阁?然后他的副总统人选Carly Fiorina站台时突然不见了,原来掉下台了,Cruz站在后面却好象没看到,这一幕被Trump在自己集会中提起,他说:就连我都会伸手帮一下,Ted却完全不管,这真的是一个奇怪的协议(that ‘s a weird deal),平常一直骂Trump说话不得体的媒体这回也含笑不语,最后在初选前一天,Cruz又遭受打击,这次来自Trump的支持者,Cruz原本是要去说服他不再相信Trump,没想到这个支持者立场坚定,头脑敏捷,Cruz说”我们的国家将变得更好”,那人接着说”如果没有你”,Cruz继续说”每个人应该问的问题是”,那人接着问”你是不是加拿大人?”这段交锋持续了七分钟,Trump的支持者处处占上峰,让人想到Cruz提出要和Trump进行一对一的辩论,Trump不予理睬,现在变成Cruz和Trump的支持者辩论,而Cruz也败下阵来.你不得不惊奇. Trump又有能力又有运气,总能让他的支持者感到开心又骄傲.
当然了,他历尽风波,穿越地狱,才有今天的结果,这个结果(虽然离最终的胜利还差很远)来的这么快,是包括他自己,所有的人都没有预料到的.就在一个月前,专家们还断言他没有可能在党代大会前拿到超过半数的代表名额,因此不会得到提名,但在这一个月里,他以迅雷不及掩耳的速度赢得从东到西7个州所有选区,从而锁定提名,不管党内元老精英如何不甘心,人民已经明确表达了他们的选择.这一个月可谓Trump竞选中金光闪闪的时光.每个初选日子, CNN都在第一时间(选举投票结束同一时间)宣布Trump是冠军,. Pennsylvania等五州初选刚结束,第二天早上六点钟他接受电视采访,中午出现在华盛顿做一个重要的外交政策的演说,随后他来到Indiana在著名教练Bobby Knight陪同下进行造势活动,晚上参加电视台举办的town hall,一天之内去了三个州,面对不同场合不同观众,他的演说风格尽管有所不同,却都是自己真实的风格,引起老百姓的共鸣.他每到一个地方都吸引着上万民众 ,虽然也不乏抗议者.但如果抗议者的目的是吓退Trump的支持者,削弱他的气势,就事与愿违了,因为敌人越猖狂,Trump的支持率越高.上周他去加州党代表会,会场旅馆被抗议者围堵,他临时决定把车停在公路边,和随行人员穿过栏杆,爬上草坡,从旅馆后门进入,这一幕让电视前的观众印象深刻,媒体上一些原来激烈反对Trump的人也换角度考虑问题了,原来就喜欢他的人更坚定了对他的支持,有人评论:”他生活好好的,不需要受这些气,他选择这么做,说明他真心爱这个国家.”几天后Indiana举行初选,这个原本不属于他的州变成了Trump’s country,从而结束了党内竞争,让他成为半个多世纪以来第一位从未担任公职就获得提名的总统候选人.
不断创造奇迹的Trump不仅带给我们源源不断的惊喜,也带领我们见证一个历史性的重要时刻,今年刚好是美国独立第240周年, 2016年是否成为历史上的转折点,让我们拭目以待,也许一个新时代已经开始,因为这是一个真正属于人民的选举,由人民决定未来方向的选举, ,第一次可以为一个不为政治体制服务的总统候选人投票,给无数曾经沉默的人带来希望.Trump是当今时代第一个揭露政治伪装,揭露体制弊端,呼吁体制改革的总统候选人,并在竞选过程中他就实现了曾经不可思议的想法,让曾经不可动摇的体制经受了巨大震动.对于我,他精彩的竞选之程像一部大侠的故事,不仅喜欢他的敢作敢为,还喜欢他的机智和幽默,祝福他在未来途中,像秦涧泉一般轻松解决问题,潇洒面对挑战压力,事实上他已经做到了,不管打了多少仗,他始终坦然自若,从眉头到西装都没皱过,天下何人不识君,Trump支持者已遍布世界.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Washington Post
Donald Trump’s absolutely remarkable 323-day odyssey to the Republican presidential nomination
By Chris Cillizza May 4, 2017
Donald Trump announced for president on June 16, 2015.
NBC and the Wall Street Journal released a national poll days later. Here’s how the Republican primary field looked:
Republican primary voter preference, June 2015
Among registered voters who said they would vote in a Republican primary
Jeb Bush 22
Scott Walker 17
Marco Rubio 14
Ben Carson 11
Mike Huckabee 9
Rand Paul 7
Rick Perry 5
Chris Christie 4
Ted Cruz 4
Source: Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, June 14-18, 2015
You’ll notice Trump didn’t make that graphic. That’s because he was getting one -- yes ONE – percent of the vote in the hypothetical Republican primary race. That put him in the company of other one-percenters like Lindsey Graham, who has emerged as the single most vocal anti-Trump politician, and John Kasich, who will end his presidential campaign today and, in so doing, clear the field for Trump.
That wasn’t even the worst news in the poll for Trump! Two-thirds of Republicans said they couldn’t see themselves supporting him for president. Just 32 percent said they could imagine backing him for president. And, unlike many of his unknown Republican rivals, everyone knew Trump’s name in the poll.
Then everything changed. Fast. …
Had it been any candidate other than Trump, this race would have been effectively called weeks ago. Trump led virtually wire to wire in this race. He systematically knocked out heavyweights within the GOP – from old bulls like Bush to rising stars like Marco Rubio and Scott Walker. He barely even stumbled in his march to the nomination.
And Trump did it all as a first-time candidate who, up until the last month, was surrounded by an inner circle of loyalists who had only the briefest experience in politics (if any at all). This was, from beginning to end, a Donald Trump production. And it was a master work.
The next act for Trump will be even more difficult. Trump convincing Republicans, many of whom share a world view with him, that he was more and better than they thought is a very different thing than convincing independents and even some Democrats of that fact. Trump’s numbers among Hispanics and white women, to name just two groups, are tremendously bad.
Trump starts as an underdog in the race against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. But, anyone who has borne witness to the last 323 days in politics – and I am one – can’t simply write off his chance just yet. This is someone who has already performed the politically impossible once. Who’s to say he can’t do it?
