Parker-Hannifin Corporation 投资思考 二

大千网友写的PH投资分析是在2015年4月，之后PH股价一路下滑至年底， 2016年初反弹至今上涨一倍以上。这是一个比较典型的 Mr. Market 类型的投资机遇， 也是一个比较理想的投资机遇，一线优质长期蓝筹股在股市短期波动中，出现与和公司长期商业价值不对应的短期非理性价格大幅波动。我个人是比较偏爱这种类型的投资机遇 。

"The very liquidity of stock markets causes people to focus on price action. If you buy an apartment house, if you buy a farm, if you buy a McDonald's franchise you don't think about what it's going sell for tomorrow or next week, or next month, you think about how is this business going to do. But stocks with this huge liquidity suck people in and they turn what should be an advantage into a disadvantage." - 芒格

优质一线蓝筹股，做为一个整体是长期市场投资回报率最高的一个群体，也是失败率最低的一个群体。


We've really made the money out of high quality businesses. In some cases, we bought the whole business. And in some cases, we just bought a big block of stock. But when you analyze what happened, the big money's been made in the high quality businesses. And most of the other people who've made a lot of money have done so in high quality businesses. 

Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you're not going to make much different than a 6% return—even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you'll end up with a fine result. 

So the trick is getting into better businesses. And that involves all of these advantages of scale that you could consider momentum effects.  - 芒格

如果你买了一个价值低估的股票，你就要等到价格达到你算出来的内在价值时卖掉，这是很难算的。
但是如果你买了一个伟大的公司，你就坐那儿待着就行了。-  芒格

PH在我和网友的谈论之后不久就出现了非常好的投资机遇。如果PH在今后继续成功当然很好 ， 但是如果ＰＨ在今天以后走向失败了呢？如果这个投资最终是失败的该如何面对呢？

"I have never met a rich man who hasn't lost a lot of money, but I have met a lot of poor men who have never lost a dime"

- Rich Dad and Poor Dad

老巴在投资IBM失利以后怎么办，接受失败和损失，然后一如既往的继续投资，比如之后投资苹果的获利大大超过了在ＩＢＭ上的亏损。

投资中是无法全避免失误，错误和失败的，但是有一些错误是可以和应该避免的。　

比如美国的二房，在０６－０７年时，ＴＤ银行的ＣＥＯ决定退出所有次贷相关业务，原因是他认为“　It doesn`t make common `sense.“，，把钱借给即没有实际经济偿还能力，也没有足够商业信用的人，是没有 common sense 的愚蠢行为。

 

Samuel Untermeyer: "Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?"
Morgan: "No, sir; the first thing is character."
Untermeyer: "Before money or property?"
Morgan: "Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it.” From Morgan’s testimony before the House Committee on Banking and Currency in December 1912.

The first thing is character. Before money or anything else. Money cannot but it.

你愿意把钱借给没有实际经济偿还能力，也没有足够商业信用的人吗？

在投资中投资常识性的错误是可以和应该避免的。

From Li Lu’s 2010 Columbia University Lecture:

So how do you really understand and gain that great insight? Pick one business. Any business. And truly understand it. I tell my interns to work through this exercise – imagine a distant relative passes away and you find out that you have inherited 100% of a business they owned. What are you going to do about it? That is the mentality to take when looking at any business. I strongly encourage you to start and understand 1 business, inside out. That is better than any training possible. It does not have to be a great business; it could be any business. You need to be able to get a feel for how you would do as a 100% owner. If you can do that, you will have a tremendous leg up against the competition. Most people don’t take that first concept correctly, and it is quite sad. People view it as a piece of paper and just trade because it is easy to trade. But if it was a business you inherited, you would not be trading. You would really seek out knowledge on how it should be run, how it works. If you start with that, you will eventually know how much that business is worth.

"A certain industry might have characteristics that make it different than others. In certain industries you might have better prospects than others. Find the best of the players in the industry and the worst players. And see how they perform over time. And if the worst players perform reasonably well relative to the great players — that tells you something about the characteristics about the industry. That is not always the case but it is often the case. Certain industries are better than others.

So if you can understand a business inside out you can then eventually extend that to understanding an industry. If you can get that insight, it is enormously beneficial. If you can then concentrate that on a business with superior economics in an industry with superior economics with good management and you get them at the right price — the chances are that you can stay for a very long time.