2020选举评论(1)

10/1/2019 Dasan's prediction: 

1. Biden will drop out and his voters will fall to Buttigieg - no path to fall back to Obama and too vulnerable for oponents' attack.
2. Sanders will drop out and his voters will fall to Warren - no path to solialsm yet.
3. Harris will drop out and her voters will split into Warren and Buttigieg - no solid broad appeal.
4. Final demos' contenders will be between Warren and Buttigieg.
5. The best combination for demos to go general will be Warren and Buttigieg teamed up.  Warren adjusts her tone toward Buttigieg's, and win the 2020 election with Buttigieg as the VP.

〈20190930〉RollingStone : The RS Politics 2020 Democratic Primary Leaderboard   https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/2020-democrat-candidates-771735/ -

1) Elizabeth Warren

Website: ElizabethWarren.com
The Massachusetts senator continues to outpace her competitors on policy, including calling to wipe out student debt for tens of millions of Americans. Warren is targeting Democrats who seek progressive purity from their 2020 champion, including in fundraising. Eschewing fundraisers with big contributors seeking political favors, Warren raised more than $19 million from grassroots donors in the second quarter. But unlike Sanders, who embraces the mantle of democratic socialism, the 70-year-old Warren is a capitalist at heart, having spent a career trying to make the system work for working people. 
Signature Policy: Warren wants to address American inequality with a wealth tax, imposed annually on “ultra-millionaires,” to pay for benefits, including universal free or low-cost childcare, for “yacht-less Americans.” Fortunes greater than $50 million would be taxed at 2 percent. Billionaires would pay 3 percent. The proposal has greater than 60 percent support and would raise $2.75 trillion over 10 years. (Read more about Warren’s platform.)
Signature Apology: Warren has apologized for conflating “family stories” about Cherokee heritage with native identity. At the Native American Presidential Forum in August, Warren underscored her regret. “Like anyone who’s being honest with themselves, I know that I have made mistakes,” she said. “I am sorry for the harm I have caused.”
RS Coverage: Elizabeth Warren Wants to Wipe Out Student Debt for 42 Million Americans

2) Joe Biden

Website: JoeBiden.com
The former vice president continues to offer America a seductive promise — a reboot from the Trump catastrophe and a return to the Obama era. And rather than risk falling in love with a progressive New Hope, many rank-and-file Democrats, particularly older voters, seem happy to fall in line behind Biden, 76, who is raising plenty of cash: $21.5 million in the second quarter alone. At his Philadelphia kickoff rally in May, Biden touted his record as a Mr. Fixit: “I know how to make government work.”
Signature Policy: Biden has peerless foreign policy credentials and isn’t afraid to tout them: “I’m the most qualified person in the country to be president,” he’s said. “I know as much about American foreign policy [as] anyone around, including even maybe Kissinger.” (Read more about Biden’s platform.)
Signature Apology: “I’m sorry I didn’t understand more,” Biden told reporters after being rebuked by multiple women for his space-invader style of politics. “I’m not sorry for any of my intentions. I’m not sorry for anything that I have ever done. I have never been disrespectful intentionally to a man or a woman. So that’s not the reputation I’ve had since I was in high school, for God’s sakes.”
RS Coverage: Joe Biden Is Not Helping

3) Bernie Sanders

Website: BernieSanders.com
The 77-year-old Sanders remains a force thanks to a potent combination of people-power and cash. His campaign announced it raised more than $25 million in the third quarter. And the campaign’s focus on grassroots organizing is peerless in the 2020 field. Sanders does not have the left lane to himself as he did in 2016 — many candidates have embraced his once-distinctive proposals. But he is seen as an uncompromising champion of Medicare for All, and he has one-upped Warren’s income-based college debt relief by calling for a complete wipeout of the nation’s $1.6 trillion in student debt. 
Signature Policy: Sanders’ 2016 campaign set the table for 2020. He gets full credit for mainstreaming a $15 minimum wage and tuition-free college. Sanders recently introduced the “For the 99.8% Act” that would sharply increase the estate tax, including imposing a 77 percent tax on estates in excess of $1 billion, raising an estimated $315 billion over a decade. (Read more about Sanders’ platform.)
Signature Apology: Sanders apologized to former female staffers for a 2016 campaign marred by pay disparities and allegations of sexual harassment by male staffers, promising to “do better” moving forward.
RS Coverage: On the Trail With Bernie Sanders 2.0

4) Kamala Harris

Website: KamalaHarris.org
Harris showed fearlessness and precision in attacking Biden in Miami during the June debate. But her showing in the second DNC debate in Detroit was less transcendent — and put Harris on the defensive about her law-enforcement record and her universal health care plan. She has been sliding in recent polls and risks losing contact with the top tier, but Harris did manage to raise nearly $12 million for the third quarter. The Californian stands astride the tectonic plates of the Democratic Party — an establishment politician who has adopted a platform responsive to the passion of grassroots, including a Green New Deal and marijuana legalization. Her fundraising in the second quarter reflects success in sustaining this tricky balance: Harris raised $12 million, including $2 million in a post-Miami surge. Black women are the heart of the Democratic Party, and seeing themselves reflected in the Howard University-educated Harris (born to Jamaican and Tamil Indian parents) could boost her prospects in an early-vote state like South Carolina.
Signature Policy: Harris has promised executive action to punish pay disparities. She would require companies to receive an “Equal Pay Certification” and fine one percent of corporate profits for every percent of wage gap that persists between male and female employees. (Read more about Harris’ platform.)
Signature Apology: Harris has accepted accountability for missteps as California’s attorney general: “The bottom line is the buck stops with me, and I take full responsibility for what my office did.”
RS Coverage: Kamala Harris’ Moment

5) Pete Buttigieg

Website: PeteForAmerica.com
The 37-year-old mayor vaulted from dark horse to phenom in a matter of months, but he has plateaued. Plainspoken and steeped in the values of the Christian left, Buttigieg has wowed pundits and prospective voters alike. He was featured in a photo shoot in Vogue, and (with his husband Chasten) scored the cover of Time. Is “Mayor Pete” a true contender? His fundraising is prodigious: Buttigieg raised more than $19 million in the third quarter. But his lack of resonance with black voters is holding him back. In recent polls he’s registered at zero percent support among African Americans in South Carolina, Florida, and Mississippi, despite scoring in or near double digits with whites.
Signature Policy: “The electoral college needs to go.” (Read more about Buttigieg’s platform.)
Signature Apology: After news reports revealed that Buttigieg declared “all lives matter” in 2015, Mayor Pete distanced himself from the comment, insisting he “did not understand” at the time that the slogan was “being used to devalue what the Black Lives Matter movement was telling us.”
RS Coverage: Is America Ready for Mayor Pete?; Pete Buttigieg’s Antiracist Education