2020选举评论(3)

02/20/2020 analysis after 9th Democratic debat and before Nevada voting:

 

>> The NH & Iowa results give the clear signals: 1) socialists will not win general popularity even win the Demo's nomination, that is shown by (a) Senders + Warren don't gain any new ground and far below 50% even within the party (b) Amy K's pop up just due to her clear rejection to socialism; 2) money is not the #1 fact to win this election as shown by Tom S' null results; 3) large number of undecided voters who are not strongly affiliated with either parties will be the #1 factor to this election, they could go to any moderates in Demo primary and could go to Trump too in the general. =>> So, the key action needed now is for the top moderate's team to do the ground work in communities visiting voters door by door to make the connection, starting in Nevada and SC, to make the connections and to consolidate the undecided voters.

 

>> We were concerning the Bloomberg's entry might have big impact on the moderates, however the 9th debat presents a disaster for Bloomberg and reduced this risk. As we also believe the money will not be a big factor in this election, along with this low debat performance, Bloomberg will not go too far in the race.

 

>> Winthin other moderates, Amy K will not gain traction after NH pop; Biden will not improve much either although may have a pop in SC; so we will see Pete's steady gaining ground.

 

>> The fanal contestents will be between Senders and Pete.  If the moderates' consolidation processs is quick enough, we expect Pete will win over Senders. We are more firm in our previous prediction that Pete and Yang will form a team and this new generation, moderate, and rational "Pete and Yang" team will win the 2020 election.