2020选举评论(2)

2/3/2020 analysis before Iowa results:

• Warren is going to further fall behind and will drop later - 2 major reasons: 1) she's getting too combative in recent couple of months and even cross fire against Bernie, 2) AOC effect - AOC has huge influence in young votes and minorities, her endorsement to Bernie giving him a huge boost 
• Buttigig has been impacted by Bloomgers' entering into the race; if Buttigig cannot pass Biden Iowa, he's chance is greatly reduced 
• Bloomberg adds a wild card in the game, however will not get solid traction, and will dilute Biden and Buttigig
• If the final race is within Bernie and Biden, Bernie will nomination
• Bernie vs Trump will still have a lower chance if Bernie is not adjust a little to the middle, however if he distance himself from Warren a bit, he could win over Trump.

10/31/2019 共和党已经堕落成了只为一人服务的工具。支持共和党多年的我觉得这是很可耻和很可悲的事。无论是共和党还是民主党，美国的老派政治、老人政治、老赖政治、老极端政治等等应当休矣！应该是支持理性公平非极权非极端的新生代掘起的时候了。

10/15/2019 Dasan's analysis and prediction: 

The 4th Democratic debate on 10/15 is changing the needle of election landscape. That is demonstrated by the continuously rising of moderate, rational, young generation candidates, Pete Buttigieg and Andrew Yang.  Our predictions put forth on 10/1 stand solid except the #5 seems unlikely.  Although it is the best way for demos to win the final election, inflexible of Warren and the trending rise of Buttigieg will not make #5 heppen. 

On Warren side, she seems unlikely to adjust her stands because of Sanders. Sanders eventually will have to drop off, however he would like his ideas be carried on by Warren. On Buttigieg side, he is gaining more ground in the middle and showing a viable replacement of Biden. 

So, the consolidation trends will continue as suggested by #1-#4, however a team of Warren and Buttigieg is unlikely. We have a modified, bold prediction of #5:

    5. The best team for demos to go general will be team Buttigieg and Yang.  Betting on American will embrace the new moderate, rational, young generation leaders, and bypass the extream, emotional, old generation leaders, we predict Buttigieg win the 2020 election.