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(2021-08-04 12:01:25) 下一个
【中国近期对大型网络企业的“打击”】
 
上海股指：今年是过山车
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mr. Fang told the meeting attendees Wednesday that China will in the future introduce new policies in a more cautious manner to avoid market volatility, and that more time would be given to let the markets digest new information, according to the people familiar with the matter. He said regulators will also consider the impact of their policies on publicly listed companies.
The regulator also said China’s Communist Party is eager to protect the interests of private companies and international investors, and the government is planning to introduce more policies to attract foreign investment, the people added.
 
 
 
 
没有腐败，纯属政策不同意见，但是不是被企业收买（captured）？
 
外资撤出
So when the federation and four other state propaganda arms issued a sternly worded set of “opinions” on how to conduct literary and art criticism, investors took the admonishment as a “sell” signal for a group of listed companies that use algorithms to promote online content.
Unfortunately for investors, at the sharp end of the crackdown are trained ideologues, like those in the state literary and arts establishment whose “opinions” included the decidedly un-technocratic instruction to “promote truth, goodness and beauty, criticize fake, evil and ugliness.”
 
新的看法
西方马上给抓住了：
 
 
 
 
深度调查
5位采访
2014年阿里在美国上市后，破冰环节中的尺度明显没那么大了，风气也好了很多。除了外部审视，也因为内部质疑的员工太多。总部的人也管过，只是没有强制取消
那时组长还起哄要求拥抱，我拒绝以后还导致我们组被扣了分
然后画风就开始不对：那两个妹子再加上P9老大，基本上一直是边开玩笑边问问题。问的都是些“如果要在我们在场的几个男的里面选老公，选谁？选情人，选谁？”这样的。已婚的妹子也被问到，在场的男的也基本都是已婚，其他人还会起哄。还有问性经历、次数、地点，甚至会刨根问底到姿势什么的，以至于后来我每次开会看到老大那张脸都会不适。我们部门都是社招，所以没有那种刚毕业的小姑娘，但这种事情无关年龄，已婚的听了也犯恶心
 
（2016）团队在私下团建时，每个新人都要经历一个破冰仪式——不论男女生，都需要交代初夜经历
 
2018年时，有阿里出来的人在我参加的团建活动上搞这套，要所有人轮流从在座的异性里分别选出结婚对象、恋爱对象和一夜情对象。我当时直接甩脸走人了，但很多女生硬着头皮继续留在那里参与游戏
 
 
 
不能不说，尽管有破冰，大部分员工还以以身为阿里感到自豪，这才是这次事件巨大反映的原因
 
 
 
 
 
Beijing’s latest move is a response to long-held public grievances about educational inequality and the resulting pressure to keep up
 
2021.10.23
对时局的回顾：反垄断、反串谋，共同富裕
 
 
 
DanWang: This NYMag piece is surprisingly sympathetic to the regulatory concerns of the tech crackdown, outlining the financial risks created by Ant, the sundry excesses by the big platforms, and the monetization of status anxiety in online tutoring:
 
 
课外补习老师能赚多少？
对于课外补课机构的上课时间和收费标准也有了新规定，每节课的时间要和学校期间一样，每节课不能超过45分钟，而课间的时间也要在10分钟左右，晚上不能超过8：30
举一个很简单的例子，如果补课班每节课的费用是100元，一周上3节课，那么一个月就是1200元，如果按照半年的费用计算，那就是7200元，但是现在一次性不能收取超3600元
一般补课班的费用是比较高的，一节课基本上都会在80元左右，有些一对一的老师一节课就会达到200元
那么已经明确规定，在职教师不允许课外授课
 
我们这教育局的领导的孩子寒暑假都请公立教师给自己的孩子辅导，领导开会的时候说的，还对那个老师表示感谢
公立学校在编教师属于公职人员，禁止有偿补课，可以举报。无偿补课是允许的，私立学校或代课老师不受限制
我们仅从法律层面上来看，你当然是具有举报的权利的。但是通过你的描述，你所在的学校几乎所有的老师都会进行这种私下的补课，那已经成为了一个大家一致认同的事情，你即使去举报了，我觉得作用也不是很大
 
美国老师也月光
 
在香港，各式各样的补习机构加起来有近千家，课余时间，学生们背着书包在大街小巷里的补习班穿梭。1996年，香港有补习经历的学生还只有34.1%，十几年后这个数字变成了72.5%
有调查显示，今年（2019）暑假，就有差不多40%的家长为子女报了暑期兴趣班及补习班，超过10%报了超过6个补习班
 
Teachers, too, have been drawn into the industry. Many training schools hire public school teachers to work part-time for handsome salaries, and some teachers now put more effort into their after-school classes than their full-time jobs. Others go further, by not teaching important material during the school day, and instead implying that students should sign up for paid after-school classes if they want to learn it
 
 
 
 
 
 
【台湾】
胡锡进诈唬：
 
冠毒战
"but a lack of progress in talks with the U.S. company mean the project will take time"
瞎扯：
 
美国就是不行
 
 
 
东盟，有戏吗？
 
John Verwey, a trade and investment analyst with a focus on microelectronics, argues that it is China-powered growth that finances the US industry’s ability to innovate and thus stay ahead in its race with China
 
 
 
东盟是中国周边外交的优先方向。去年外长会以来，双方领导人保持战略沟通，为中国东盟关系提供政治引领。双方友好合作取得新的重要进展。一是团结抗疫诠释友邻之谊；二是贸易投资合作可圈可点；三是可持续发展合作稳步推进；四是“南海行为准则”磋商保持势头
 
区域内的贸易，亚洲过半是自己跟自己贸易。但这也有另一层含义，区域外的就不把你当成有吸引力，如欧洲
 
非洲在追赶
 
 
 
中国的，区域结合，亚洲人管亚洲人，就是要把美国赶出去，但未必能成。因为大家希望美国留下捣乱，但美国除了捣乱，别无良招
 
 
印度
莫希智（随水）
the world’s largest democracy is changing in fundamental ways, raising questions about whether it should even be called a democracy at all
recently reclassified the country as an “electoral autocracy”
 
 
 
如果美国内讧，谁是第一个受爱者？华人
 
与我们不同意见的，都是反对者，反对者都是敌人。怎么对待敌人？是尊重？法制？
 
美国左右两边都不能说到一起，都恨不得杀了对方，当这场冲突风险太大而旁边恰恰有一只替罪羊，一群与美国民族不共戴天的中国相关的人的时候，结果会这样？那时候如果暴徒袭击华人，警察只要怠工，不能么
 
 
「二」美英澳：法国气疯了
 
上周美英澳突然宣布达成了新的反华联盟，英国打气，美国助阵，澳大利亚上战场【1，2】，有些澳大利亚人这么形容这个协议：
 
Illustration: John Shakespeare
奥媒漫画
 
新闻发布会上，大家还是很客气的，“完全不是针对任何人......没有没有，跟中国无关”，美英澳三国只是要同心协力维护印太的安全，在会上，（澳大利亚总理）莫里森顺便再次“友善地邀请习近平‘商讨两国关系’”【3】，中国对奥的经济制裁，这次莫里森是能大胆地回应了。不过中国还没反应过来，那边法国气疯了【4，5】。
法国外长和防长：
 
美英澳战略联盟的核心部分是奥将从美国买入核潜艇，可奥已经和法国有一个建造（常规）潜艇的合约，新的美英澳协议意味着澳大利亚将撕毁与法国的合约，这是激怒法国的原因。法国人和大家一样，自己被捅了一刀后才在报纸上知道自己被捅了，法国外长和防长都公开发表声明，“两面三刀”，“背信弃义”，“不可接受”，“凶残”，“川普第二”，（“这种毫无商讨，单方的决定和川普没什么两样”）【6-10】，前法国大使把世界描述成丛林【6】，盟友不盟友，美英奥照样捅你。
 
 
 just one hour before Scott Morrison the Australian PM announced this at a press conference
 
 
 
This line reads exactly like Chinese statements: The officials said the partnership ... was "not aimed at any one country."
 
 
 
 
 
反应
 
从美方的计划和准备，甚至事后法国的反应来看，美国对法国的反应毫无准备，从新闻发布会到随后的表态，美国只是说“法国和核心盟友”，“这种小事能妥善解决”，法国视为危机【12，13，14，15】，美国视为小事。
 
法国的反映确实厉害，中国骂美国英国的话，法国都说出来了，从背信弃义，杀人不见血，到充当走狗【16】，这只是说的，行动上，法国取消了美法240 伙伴关系庆祝会【17】，召回驻美驻奥大使【18，19】。因为澳大利亚是打手，莫里森一直在为自己撕毁协约辩护，他越辩护，美英越不当一回事，法国越气，叫停法英国防峰会【20】，封杀欧奥自贸协议【21，22】。
 
对此，英国首相庄生受不了了，公开对媒体说：“你们法国有完没完啊？是个大人吗？”，新外长撰文欢呼英国“够狠”，
 
 
原因
 
澳大利亚呢？法国慢，工程期不断延迟，价钱也一升再升，
Earlier this year, Australia approached the UK about switching to a nuclear powered subs. The UK then approached the United States
Their view is that this was an Australian decision based on their changing strategic circumstances and a deteriorating environment.
结果还是澳大利亚，但美国轻视，与拜登班子不配，导致双边关系受损，后果不一定能挽回
“Hey France, your current diesel powered sub project is late and costs are running over, you wanna ditch that and start a NEW project?”法国前大使也这么说
 
美英澳新的防卫条约和核潜艇计划一个暗中的主要目标是公开表达对台湾的支持，
 
谁先发起来的？为什么要这么做？美国国防部终极官员（中国问题专家）杜如松说美国他已经就此费了好几个月的心，可见计划好一阵子了，这暗示着美国一直在筹谋这件事，澳大利亚两个月前还向法国担保核潜艇合约，感觉是美国一直在鼓动，澳大利亚肯定也动心了，但没拍板，美国很可能提出这是对中国制裁美国
 
为什么美国没跟欧洲，尤其是法国打招呼？一是担心法国激烈反对，二是报复德法去年中欧全面投资协定不理睬拜登当局，三是给澳大利亚找到了一个回应中国经济讹诈的手段，

Some really bold leaks coming from State Department. In one France was not informed because “we knew they would go ballistic.” In another France was not informed “because we thought it was no big deal.” In a third the whole idea came from Australia
 
英国方面的故事
Scott Morrison discussed the defence deal with Boris Johnson at the G7 summit while the French focused on sausages
英国是美英澳“反华集团”的核心主力，筹谋者，这一高度机密，英国只有10个人知道
起于今年3月，澳大利亚对法国潜艇的评估是不足以突破中国的防卫线，生存率低，想换成核潜艇，只能向美国求助，但要英国帮忙，英国则将之视为自己再次成为美国“核心成员”的机会，美国外交部、国防部和能源部都要审核
 an excited Johnson was keen for something much deeper. “Boris really pushed it. There was a choice about how broad it would be — was it just a technical agreement on a specific subject or is this more broad? Boris was pushing that it had to be as ambitious as possible. This was a strategic move,”
庄生要把它和英国的印太战略连到一起，
AUKUS is not merely about submarines. It is much more significant. As the Australian prime minister Scott Morrison said, it is “a partnership where our technology, our scientists, our industry, our defence forces will work together to deliver a safer and more secure region that ultimately benefits all”
 
美国方面的故事
评论（Max Bergmann）：1. France is right to be pissed. It's like they were left at the alter and found out via text. 2. But AUKSUS makes more strategic sense for Australia. No good way to end it w/ France. 3. US is stuck in the 90s on EU，美国根本不顾欧洲，视为一群眼巴巴看着美国的二流角色
Meanwhile the US has pushed Europe hard on our priority, China. France, unlike Berlin, shares the concern and has been supportive and active
 When Europe, ie France, pushes for the EU to reduce its dependence on a disengaged US ("strategic autonomy") and develop EU defense, we freak out, kill off any bold efforts. EU defense is stalled b/c of us
they like Europe's dependence，美国的目标也是要把欧盟打造成二流角色，增加对美国的依赖性
 
也难怪中国人暗中乐
这事儿法国人一直被瞒在鼓里，跟大家一样在见报后才发现（有说提前几个小时通告的）
Has anyone made any sense of the Biden doctrine? Human rights at the core. We no longer enforce human rights globally. China is a mortal threat. We need to work with China. European allies critical. We do not care about what Europe wants.
 
对法国产业、就业的打击，即使在战略上对法国没什么影响，也是不能接受的，900亿（美元）的订单，很多人等着这开饭
 
克里兜售内幕，损人
 
法国方面的故事
法国国内的战略思维，欧洲的独立性，不能在美国阴影笼罩之下，是欧洲有自己声音的关键
最新内幕，10.03
 
 
对法国的伤害
奥法的合约，美国国企洛克希德·马丁拿到的分量比法国还多
1. "We wanted nuclear subs!"
2. "Manufacturing delays!"
3. The final justification, the impolitic one, is one that sounds hard-nosed and realpolitik-y, is "The US is a closer ally and they can offer more so we’ll choose them over you."
4. Indeed, from the French perspective, the Australian partnership was seen as a strategic lynchpin of a Pacific strategy aligned with the Western alliance, and away from a policy of balancing the US with China.
5. Ok I have found the true reason for the Australian decision. And tbh, I understand.
 
报复（10.04）自贸协定
 
heavy political act which signals the gravity of the crisis between our countries
"There have been lies, contempt and a breach of trust ... An hour before, we knew nothing about these negotiations. You do not deal with an ally like France with such brutality and unpredictability
I do not understand the logic of this agreement [...] It illustrates Australia's willingness to be a surrogate for the United States and to abandon its sovereignty
中国骂美国英国的话，法国都说出来了，从背信弃义，杀人不见血，充当走狗
【阿富汗事件美国也伤了欧洲的心，因为欧洲信了美国的情报估计】
"Mr. Macron had made the growing French relationship with Australia a cornerstone of a strategy to expand Europe’s role in meeting the challenge of China’s rise. Because an American company, Lockheed Martin, was a partner in the French submarine deal with Australia..."
...the contract was viewed in Paris as an example of how France and the U.S. could work together in Asia. That belief has now been shredded, replaced by bitterness, suspicion and a measure of incredulity that the Biden Administration would treat France this way."
Questions: So no one in DC thought of this? Or was willing to delay the announcement for a few days to break the news to France? Or figure a way to bind European countries into the strategy instead of cutting them out?
The temporary return of the ambassadors to Paris amounts to a severe diplomatic rebuke that is usually used against adversaries.超出了盟友所应当做的
“For any who still doubted it, the Biden administration is no different from the Trump administration on this point: The United States comes first, whether it’s in the strategic, economic, financial or health fields. ‘America First’ is the guiding line of the foreign policy of the White House.”
in its secretive preparation but also indicative of a fundamental strategic shift that calls into question the very nature of the Atlantic alliance
越来越激烈
 
 
如果法奥不涉及金钱，法国会这么急吗？美国是为了在澳大利亚死死地拉到自己的一边，还是顺便收收保护费？如果金钱是个因数，那中国那方面的“收买”，是不是也还会有魅力呢？
 
发生在拜登任期，川普时都没有出现的事故
 
法国虽然没有从英国撤大使，但公开说“跟你们没完，你这心甘情愿当美国走狗”（[Britain] is hiding in the American bosom, This is a return to the American fold and a form of accepted vassalization），看来不是中国才这么说。
 
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1439652352638783500?s=20
 
下周在匹兹堡的美欧贸易技术委员会会议（Trade and Technology Council，TTC）能不能达成任何协议都成了问题
I am also hearing that AUKUS vindicates Germany on Nordstream
 
尽管捅了法国一刀，在中国这大原则上，美欧还是站到一起了
然而：
 
As Axios reported, President Xi Jinping's senior officials would only speak with Kerry by video call, sending a junior official to meet the former secretary of State in person
 
 
 
为什么伤害
 
法国本身的战略宏图被排挤到边缘
唯一向南海排出核潜艇的欧洲国家，积极响应美国，参加军演，同时自谋利益，
The US missed the political and strategic dimensions of this case in Paris.
根本没把“盟友”放在心上
 
美国把盟友分成等级，像英国日本都急着巴结，好往上蹭，提高自己在美国面前的身价，这也无奈，但这样对待欧盟可是伤了这一世界三大经济体之一的心，
可同时，你也隐约觉得这未必不是美国的出发点，表面上哄着你，但不想你有一天成为一个对手
 
The US, UK and Australia decided to publicly humiliate France and are now surprised France is not happy about it. Seems that simple to me
 
虽然是个别，也许极端些，这话从法国人嘴里说出来，真是一番滋味
"It's very symbolic. There was a breakdown of trust."
@JY_LeDrian
, Minister of Foreign Affairs, on the case of the contract for submarines broken by Australia
 
法国的野心
 
法国梦
从某个角度来看，法国和英国很相近，那就是觉得自己是个世界大国，大国就得有打过的架势，实力，最直接说的，是“影响力”，就是说话有人听，有人附和，最后自己的利益得到保护，利益越大，势力影响也越来越大，两者相互相成，所以曾经像个大国的，英法，也包括日本，对自己的形象，对自己的利益都有极强的保护本能。法国时常用武力干预北非是法国这种帝国梦的反映，当法国意识到自己实力不足时，主张欧盟的独立性，也是希望利用、借助欧盟整体来加强自己的实力，美国在法国背后捅一刀，是对整个法国民族的自尊心捅了一刀，（All of a sudden, French assumptions about its foreign policy — the West, working alliances, its place in the Pacific），把法国整个战略宏图的构思和基础都推翻了，站在法国那一边想想，如果这一刀是一个不停地向你保证合作共同价值的“盟友”所为，你会这么想？仅仅几句安慰就能解决吗？
France was Europe’s leading voice for a China strategy less muscular than what the United States and some Asian powers have come to espouse，法国有不可饶恕之罪Supporters of French policy in the Pacific say that France was not blinded by its past, but simply trying to establish a coherent policy in a region
“The decline of France is a theme that emerges often, especially during electoral periods, and is popular among the right and far right,” Mr. Decis said. “It’s the idea that France used to be extremely powerful and influential, and that the France of today is insignificant and contemptible
 
法国的野心法国的梦
 
很多人给拜登的迷魂汤灌晕了，以为美国真的是为了“价值”，They were kept secret even as the US administration encouraged France and the EU to develop their own efforts to counter China’s more belligerent posture in the region. That counts as straightforward mendacity.拜登也确实用“价值”把大家吃死了，你总不能跟中国站在一起吧？确实不能，那大家就只好吃苦果子，老老实实当从属、附庸
 
法国自己的军工产业
国防依赖于一个强大的军工产业，而军工产业如果没有一个宿敌，也就失去了社会的支持，可国与国之间的军工产业不是零和，但很有零和的味道，所以价值、势力背后是产业间的竞争
 
美国党媒
 
清晰
卢斯倒不是站在盎格鲁撒克逊一边幸灾乐祸，而是指出真正的危机
The handling of the Flag of United StatesFlag of AustraliaFlag of United Kingdom sub deal looks stunningly inept. Didn’t anyone consider handling the certain Flag of France reaction and the potential Flag of European Union implications? This runs very deep in Paris for reasons well beyond the sub deal in itself
澳大利亚的手段非常狠，有种狗急跳墙的意思，死死抱住美国大腿，并没有考虑后果，因为奥是个小国，小国最关键的择主、挑边站队
 
中国威胁论，比民主自由普世价值，更有新引力，因为那是一种条件反射，生存的本能，欧洲是可以感觉到的，主要是中国的主权
 
抗议美英澳结新盟，核潜艇“捅法国一刀”，法国召回驻美大使。不久前中国召回驻立陶宛大使，被西媒挤哒，但那已经是避免断交所能做的最严厉的决定。法国这一决定，还不在于法国是不是气疯了，而是自誉为人才济济的拜登当局为什么没有预测国际关系发展的先见
 
总统候选人之一：
 
美国把责任推到澳大利亚身上
美国是不是真的，有意撇开欧洲，嫌欧洲摇摆不定，碍事呢？没有欧洲（只有不与中国串通一气）行吗？
AUKUS "was very closely held inside the administration, and spearheaded by the Asia team working under Kurt Campbell."
 
 
智库的反击，没料到法国的反映
 
在中国，大家都哀叹西方控制着话语权，在西方，英语体系控制住话语权，西方智库绝大多数都是美国，或者美国附属，美国支助的，所以都是一片“美国为领导的国际自由民主秩序”声音，当法国怼美英澳时，智库一股绞杀法国的浪潮，
 
澳大利亚和美国都有一种这边捅你一刀和那边亲热是两码事那种感觉，就是好的我都吃了，你还得跟我玩儿，这是对中国的态度，也是对法国的态度
莫里森还公开表示“绝不后悔”
 
是欧盟在中欧全面投资协定上给了美国一个警告，借口、理由
Frustrating Paris has apparently been seen as an acceptable prize, as France was unwilling to join the US re China
The US has not concluded that it can’t work with allies on China. That is just a wrong judgment. Bonnie Glaser / 葛來儀
 
鹰派:
baodao
 
There’s inconsistency on both sides in the #AUKUS row. Anglos complain France not reliable / committed in Indo-Pacific yet begrudge its offense at being sidelined in that very arena; French preach European strategic autonomy yet are appalled when Anglos take them at their word
Better to see AUKUS as the poorly handled realisation of new basic realities. UK and Aus both have strong impetus (Brexit & geography respectively) to move in lockstep with US on China policy; France & EU have grounds to seek a more nuanced form of alignment with US positions
Recognising those differences, and the inevitable pluralism of any post-hegemonic Western alliance (“Westishness” as I’ve called this in @NewStatesman), would be a good first step to managing them more constructively in future and thus moving on from the AUKUS row.
Final thought in passing... the term “strategic autonomy” is clearly becoming more hindrance than help to the actually sensible French goal of a Europe better able to manage its own security (and to be a sovereign partner rather than surly supplicant to US). Time to ditch it
 
 
美英澳联盟是对反华阵营的重组，分出高低，为了反华，其他一切都可以牺牲，但也反应拜登不再犹豫，对中国是全社会反华，虽然文明冲突这叫法名声不好，但实质就是文明冲突，只是掩盖成意识形态的冲突
报复中欧投资协定，德法不够坚决，惩罚法国
If the US strongly desires to organize a network of alliances to counter China, it acted truly irresponsibly by antagonizing a longtime partner and by cutting itself off from at least part of the Europeans.傲慢
 
美英澳联盟是一把插向中国心脏的尖刀，一招要害
 
 
和稀泥
The EU is trying to bind France to the bloc’s nascent Indo-Pacific strategy. Per senior EU diplomat: “There will be no real change to the structure of the EU’s strategy. The bitterness of the French? At the end of the day, the French are pretty much behind the strategy.”
So now the argument is that France should not complain about submarines deal because global economic competition is a jungle but Australia can complain about its trade deal with the EU because we live in a rules based order?
 
 
欺骗、捅了一刀，残酷现实：法国如果没有整个欧盟在背后撑腰，啥也不是
法国自觉有基地、有策略，一直是欧洲的带头人，可偏偏就依赖澳大利亚，法国想做的，美奥都包了，没什么留给法国，只好去巴结印度。不久前八强峰会和北约峰会拜登笼络人心的热情全都扔到爪哇国了，当时德法有异议，北约跟中国无关，但为了顾全大局跟班了，现在拜登一脚踹了。法国太天真了，“拜登不是川普”。美国总是必须当老大，大家在“平等相处”的原则下以为不提就能糊弄过去，当自己被教训一把的时候，才会深深领悟到那是啥滋味。
 
欧盟你没刀没枪，光说说有啥用？还得看我的
 
 
战略意义
 
澳大利亚少数不同意见
拜登连莫里森的名字都忘了
The three amigos – an Aussie marketing huckster, an English buffoon and an American senior citizen. Fresh from being chased out of Afghanistan and humiliated by barbarian terrorists they’d set out to defeat 20 years earlier
20年之内没货，奥担心现有常规潜艇技术不足以对抗中国，那么现在美国的核潜艇技术20年后有戏吗（当然美国也可能会更新技术，但好像不再海军计划里）？澳大利亚如果在这期间想要，就不知道到哪儿去买了。
澳大利亚国防的潜艇计划一直处于紊乱状态，2009年（工党）陆克文定了从日本买，他的继任吉拉德把方案撤了，后来自由党上台，阿博特又跟日本商量，继任特恩布尔再次变卦，跟法国签了大单合约，几天前又被莫里森撕毁（回到爹妈（英美）家里，奥媒的用语）
by the time these nuclear submarines begin to arrive, the contest likely will have been decided.
Australia is speaking loudly and carrying a small stick. Or perhaps speaking loudly and hoping its mates are bringing the sticks
A re-invigorated, tri-continental, battle-tested alliance of capable, modern nations has just declared itself opposed to any Chinese pretensions to an easy hegemony.中国靠诈唬是不行了
Li posited that the US was seeking to isolate China from the Asia-Pacific, much as it had isolated Russia from Europe.
两党支持，成了国策，有基础
基地，军事技术、产业
看似笨拙，但有致命一击之势
美国、日本、澳大利亚，还有欧盟的军舰在巡逻，不开火，都是大家大声向中国挑明南海不是你的，你再说也没用，难道你斗胆跟全世界为敌？所以这招是很厉害的
 
澳大利亚加载美中之间，不仅仅是因为美中之间的冷战，还是国防上依赖美国，经济上依赖中国这么一个特点，尽管澳大利亚与中国的关系近年来日益恶化，但很多人意识到奥经济对中国依赖这么一个现实，所以奥还是有向中国摇摆的可能，这点，不仅澳大利亚鹰派担心，美国也担心，这一联盟把奥死死地绑在美国这艘船上，奥失去了变卦的能力，但这也把澳大利亚和中国的经济关系推到台前，中国肯定会把斩断对奥的依赖放在自己的战略目标之上
 
分析
澳大利亚一直在欺骗法国，说要继续，只是新闻公报前一个小时才正是通知法国，搞乱了西方自己的关系，奥政府未必胜任
骂：
 
英语语系里好战的三国：美英澳，战略联盟，
 
美英澳新联盟是回应中国的崛起，中国军事力量壮大带来的威胁，中国海军过去几年的扩张是历史上绝无仅有的，一句话，中国逼的，叫单方面改变区域力量分布现实，受冲击者不得不反击，所以如果说这是一场新的军备竞赛，那是中国引起的军备竞赛。
 
美国和欧洲（反华势力）的计划：重新写游戏规则，欢迎中国进来玩，但没有规则制定权，基本上承认原有的西方自由民主国际秩序已经被中国占领，玩不下去了，入关了也没用。这说明一个古怪的现象，美国所谓的“基于规则的国际秩序”，中国是最大的捍卫者，最近申请加入泛太协定又是一个新的例子，反而是美国招架不住，不停地在嚷嚷“基于规则的国际秩序”，但却在现有体制内步步后退，抛弃、砸烂，重新打造新的，因为玩不过中国。美国可以说中国市场不够开放，（商业）法制不健全，国家干预经济过多（补助），但从中国的申请来看，中国有信心进一步改善、提高，反而是美国适应不了。
 
中国政府应当发表一份白皮书：一个开放，没有外国势力干预，欢迎大家交流、交易和投资的开放环境，建立在一个大家共同介绍的规则之上，而不是少数国家的“基于规则的国际秩序”
 
如果还不够清楚：
 
 
醉翁之意：
That Taiwan has remained a free democracy, independent from China, is a story of successful deterrence
AUKUS represents a judgment, a gamble even
Natasha Kassam is Director at the Lowy Institute.
 
 
 
既是对中国致命的打击，也是对欧盟又一白眼
 
欧盟
欧洲如何被骗了？
法国马上出任欧盟主席
 
在欧盟宣布亚太战略前一天，这一决定也否定了欧盟的地位，冯德莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen）没脑子不是第一次了
盎格鲁撒克逊联盟有把欧盟从亚太战区中排挤出去的意思
 
 
 
欧盟今天宣布自己的印太战略
东盟是欧盟的朋友
欧盟会出现在亚太，但影响有限
欧盟的独立性
AUKUS also signals the end of President Emmanuel Macron's ambitions of constructing a strategic alliance with Australia and India, which he first hypothesized in 2018,
 
“The quicker we acknowledge something structural is changing in transatlantic relations, the better we can transform them in a way that serves the interests and security of both sides.”
 
 
对时局的影响
 
美国不仅对整个事态的可能性和严重性毫无预料，而且还是看不到其严重性，还是一副蔑视，不屑一顾的态度，把法国视为孩童，要给法国“出出气”“出出气就好了”
 
法国从来没有召回大使（虽然这次只是短期的），在川普期间也没用，美国还是一副无所谓的样子
美国的态度是觉得印太战场跟欧洲没什么关系，其态度还暖味，不坚决
无疑，法国自然意识到自己没有“把中国封死在第一岛链”那样的本事，所以有一种倡导和平的倾向，自然也就更具包容性，不把中国视为敌人，默克尔的德国更没有这种想法，这跟美国的霸权意识是冲突的，从这个角度，美国踩死法国即使不是必然的结局，也是不在乎的根源，因为法国在挡路，将之踢到一边只是正常的行为
 
 
战争风险大增，都是美国的因数
Two stand out. The most important is the hawkish domestic US consensus on China
The second is America’s allergy to trade and investment deals
美国不能在经济上提供任何机会，只能用武，结果加剧冲突的可能性
 
pushed to postpone a key EU-US trade meetin
signals to Europe that “it is not perceived as a global player with whom the United States will gain [from a deeper] co-operation, at least in the Indo-Pacific,”
大家都是大人，能明白，几句话哄哄是没用的
英国故事
Australian officials say it was not in their interest to alert Paris; keeping the French deal alive heaped pressure on Biden to agree a deal that would bring huge industrial rewards to the US大家各自有自己的小算盘
Johnson’s inner circle said they had thought through the consequences for the Macron relationship
“There was a bigger prize at stake,”
 
 
美国周一早上宣布对欧盟已经接种疫苗的放行，这是美国拖了好久后腿才做出的决定，之前一直压着欧盟，就是不放，尽管欧盟的接种和疫情管控都远优于美国，小道说此举完全是为了给欧盟息怒，不清楚的是美国是不是一直留着这一手就为了今天，还是一直留着，今天派上用场了。
 
除此之外，外长布林肯还马上要求和法国外长在联合国会议上碰头，拜登也主动要与马克龙通话，法国外长已经拒绝了布林肯的要求，拜登到时会说什么？
欧盟三大头都已表态，不接受美英澳的（无耻）行为
欧盟将会更加独立
跟拜登蜜月半年多就觉得破裂，那不是小闹，而是这个关系本质出了问题，也许是美国从来就没有把欧盟当成“反华核心盟友”，只是利用，但中国又不是一个可以结交的对象，欧盟如果寄望于调节、重组，那还是陷在幻觉之中
 
The slogan of democracy provides a fig leaf that allows them to continue speaking as if—and maybe even believing that—they’re acting in the universal interest
 
美欧翻脸与中欧结盟不是一回事，欧盟一直想保持一定的独立性，但在中国的威逼下，大有与美国形成反华战线的冲动，但这种统一策划统一行动的战线是没有了，但欧盟反华的风气还在，只不过现在会留一手，不会赶尽杀绝
 
美国并不想与欧洲闹矛盾，但美国有自己的打算，而且是自己的打算是天下唯一重要的，大家都要围着美国转，拜登的两论，“盟友论”“民主价值论”，我在半年前就说那是懵人的，是为了把西方笼络到自己反华阵营之中，当不涉及利益的时候，大家都觉得挺受用，等到拜登真的把大国争霸（Great Power Compitition，国际关系里的一种关系和策略，已经好几年成为美国的国策，但拜登卖个关子，居然把大家哄住了，然而即使是美国国内也不再买拜登的账了，大家都知道拜登实在哄骗傻白甜）
 
 determination to weigh foreign and security policy decisions based on a clear-eyed and cold-hearted calculation of U.S. interests
“France will have gotten mad without getting even, never a good idea in politics or diplomacy.”美国人就这样France’s ability and willingness, alone among European allies, to project force decisively beyond its borders还是没用，美国觉得法国没本事，反而碍事，干脆踢掉，心狠手辣
美英澳协议是美国向世界表态的一个关键决定，你敢说美国不狠，不把主力放在亚洲，不敢跟中国开战？
Judge Biden by his actions, not his rhetoric
 
In some glimmer of face saving news, there were indications earlier this week that von der Leyen would make transatlantic relations a centre-point of her State of the Union speech. In the end, she didn't and it barely featured. Which turned out to be for the best
 
美国马上出来说“法国是关键盟友”，晚了，耍孩子吗？
"This makes Europeans realize that maybe some of Trump's policies, beyond the scandals and the tweets, were not an aberration but signaled a deeper shift away from Europe," 美国智库还是指望“中国威胁论”会让法国、欧洲回心转意
 
印度再问，如果美国能欺骗一个大西洋公约组织成员，核心盟友，那“小不点”盟友会有什么待遇呢？
 
马来西亚、印尼担心军备竞赛，不过，发对声音不足，也是对中国的白眼，
日本印度台湾称好
菲律宾好像是支持（未必出自总统之口），
马来西亚最大声
 
德国
France, with its network of overseas territories, is the only European nation with real skin in the Indo-Pacific game.照样被推落井
although Biden is keen for Europe’s support in the competition with China, the officials in charge of his Indo-Pacific strategy do not see this as a top priority
one senior U.S. official I spoke to pointed to a rush at the top levels of the National Security Council to deliver a big win for Biden after the embarrassment of Afghanistan.  France was an afterthought as officials scrambled to get the deal done ahead of a meeting of Quad leaders on September 24
He has made clear that he has no intention of joining the United States in a coalition against China. Macron is an advocate of European strategic autonomy罪
The submarine deal, and France’s fierce reaction to it, puts Germany in the awkward position of having to choose between
 “What is happening to the French is what happens when you are strategically irrelevant,” a German defense official told me. “It can happen to us.”
 Laschet and Scholz have been outspoken about what they do not want: economic decoupling, a new Cold War, and being forced to choose between Washington and Beijing
 
代价
 
 
拜登要挽回（上周）
 
 
 
美国军火商乐坏了
 
 
 
欧盟要求澳大利亚道歉，否则自贸协议休了，这就是一个台阶，
 
The French ambassador to EU yesterday briefed his 26 fellow counterparts on Aukus and “underlined the strategic issue that the American approach poses to the EU as a whole”, a diplomatic source told Politico.
He also called on the EU to be “more present” in the Indo-Pacific.
 
美英澳核潜艇协议看上去爽，但首先挑起了盎格鲁撒克逊和欧洲的对立，很显然这不是美国想要的，这有两个可能性，一是美国根本没意识到，欧盟不舒服，但顶多发发脾气，另一种可能性是知道欧洲肯定不高兴，但只能把苦果子咽下去，因为欧盟已经在自己的劝说下把中国当成头号大敌，为了共同对抗中国，这种损失是小事，会顾全大局的。但这是个战略性的误判。
 
法国是西方所有国家里在太平洋有最多领土的（仅次于美奥），而且有上百万发工资在那里工作生活，法国的印太战略是所有国家里最有模有样的，法国把与澳大利亚的潜艇协议当成在
 
澳大利亚的赌博
如果你从奥的角度来看，奥的选择是意识到中国的威胁，已经不是潜在的威胁，而是直接的威胁，当然这首先是中国对南海主权的态度，如果中国“霸占了”整个南海，那么奥觉得中国跑到奥门口是迟早的事，这跟中国这么说没关系，因为西方就是这么想的，如果他们自己强大了，也会跑到其他国家前示威，所以整个西方都自然觉得中国一旦强调肯定会这么做，
如果美中真的打起来，不是在澳大利亚附近，而是在台湾，中国把美国击败了，那澳大利亚怎么办？这种可能性是有的，而且越来越高，而且即使美中不开战，但中国的海军军舰越来越多，多到夹着美军开，美国最终还是有可能顶不住，从亚洲撤出去
 
 Washington’s gesture, this commitment of American military and technological prowess, is hugely significant. But it is no guarantee the United States is prepared to enter into a new Cold War-style contest with China
The size of its economy alone makes it one of the mightiest adversaries the United States has faced in more than a century. So the United States would need a very good reason to take on a power as great as China.
Why should the United States commit itself to a contest with China when the stakes are less than existential?
美国在亚洲的目的是霸权，但不影响美国的生存，霸权等于生存是美国统治阶层灌输给美国老百姓的鸡汤，这种想法是不是会永久保留下去，谁也说不清。美国的90后和00后压倒性的反对美国充当世界警察，等到澳大利亚拿到核潜艇，美国变卦是无法排除的，因为美国是个民主国家。
 
 
美英澳协议是奥向美国表忠的“卖身契”，是以放弃澳大利亚主权为基础的，因为既然澳大利亚把国防完全寄托在美国身上，那就失去了独立性，以后想改也没法改了。
If so, AUKUS may be stretched thin, seeking to cover many foreign policy and strategic objectives across three democracies weakened at home.
一个没有策略的协议，因为它不改变现状（如奥缺乏自卫和进攻的能力），也没有改变现状的计划
 
奥英美潜艇协议的意义并不在潜艇，首先这潜艇20年内没货，第二20年后这潜艇还能不能用根本就是问题，说中国目前反潜能力差，但20年后台湾早就了结了，技术也不再是航母潜艇了，所以这协议有另外一层含义。
 
那是不是澳大利亚借此把美国绑住，成为自己的保护人呢？有这个意思，但美奥已经是盟友，有互卫协议，如果澳大利亚受到中国攻击，美国是会来帮忙的，向奥宣战也就是向美宣战。
 
奥媒漫画
 
美国的核潜艇技术一直是美国国家机密，只有英国有（与法国不同，法国有自己的技术，英国没有），与奥分享，就是升级了，莫里森强调这是个永久性的协议，澳大利亚将永远和美国站在一起，这就是以全面投向美国来换取美国的保护，核潜艇是个象征性的武器，因为它是进攻性武器，这就表示奥原以为美国两肋插刀，既然如此，美国也应为奥两肋插刀。所以归根结底这分协议对澳大利亚来说发誓表忠，奥太急迫，用了甩了法国这种手段来表达自己的决心。
 
对美国来说，这又是另一种含义。美国不需要向奥表忠——虽然大家还在怀疑美国许诺的可靠程度有多少，但要向全世界表明美国是真的把主力移到亚洲了，尤其是在阿富汗丢丑之后要有个表示，这是美国愿意同法国一刀的又一个原因。同时，美英澳时第一个以反华为目的的军事联盟，这是该联盟对美国真正的意义，美国这是直接向中国表露出军事威胁，中国一直在打压澳大利亚，因为中国对美国没辙，只能找小个子的欺负，美国也没什么回应的手段，这次来个一不做二不休，中国用经济手段来传递军事威胁，美国把经济讹诈当成军事威胁来对待，一下子给中国一个响亮的回应。这一军事联盟明确是向中国暗示美国有决心有能力在第一岛链之内击败中国，奥可以成为美国中程导弹基地，成为对抗中国二炮的利器，既然奥拍了胸脯不怕中国，那美国就可以借用这个基地（而不是夏威夷）来做后备力量。
 
 
 
 
英国的动机
英国丢不掉自己几百年的帝国梦，老觉得自己是一号人物，总得在世界舞台上有个表演，可实力不行，怎么办？宁愿把文化输出和外援砍了，也要把航母派到中国门前走一圈
Current events reveal an isolated, mid-sized nation battling to maintain its international relevance，自顾不暇，苏格兰独立是迟早的事，那时英国可能排在前十之外（现在第五），大家得质疑其常任理事国的资格。庄生这个帝国梦叫“全球大英”（Global Britain）
抱美国大腿是英国实现“全球大英”梦的唯一出路，如果你当不上霸主了，跟着霸主耀武扬威也有点霸主的意思，尤其是有时霸主不好说话，
 
 
庄生的行动在英国国内得到媒体的广泛支持，英国帝国梦未死
 
 
 
自尊心，“价值”，不是普世，但也是价值
 
捉衿见肘，还是骗子？
 
美国是不是觉得遏制中国这一事关美国生存的百年不遇大变局靠不得他人，即使盟友也靠不得，所以无所谓得罪不得罪，必须亲自上阵，澳大利亚主动打头阵，加强了美国控制全球，但集中主力对付最大威胁的战略，所以其他一切都是次要的
 
拜登马克龙通话，拜登算是间接承认行为不妥，但这就解决问题了吗？第一，法国的印太战略被废，得重新布局，第二，法国军工受重创，两者相互加剧了所遭受的打击的严重性，第三，法国不仅声誉严重受损，还其影响力还被质疑，这是美国道歉所不能弥补的，而且美国是真的带有歉意，还只是为自己过于鲁莽后悔，或者对法国公开发问蓄怒？
 
除了实质性的伤害（产业受巨大打击），能一句话就过去了？
“黑夜里一记闷棍”，美国告诫大家，为了扼杀中国，谁都不会顾，澳大利亚也是“人不为己天诛地灭”，你们法国咋娘娘的？
 
 
原计划针对中国的美欧技术联盟，也蒙上阴影
 
“外”厉“内”荏的英国
抢汽油，因为没司机，都是东欧来的，被脱欧赶走了，还“优惠”请人家回来
食品奇缺，物价攀升
同时要派航母到太平洋
industry leaders across the economy have warned about chronic labor shortages — of truck drivers, yes, but also fruit pickers, meat processors, waiters and health care workers — disrupting supply chains and impeding businesses
A master shape-shifter, unburdened by any sense of accountability or honesty, he thrives in conditions of adversity
英国需要的首相
 
美媒：拜登联合国大会首秀面临挑战，如何向盟友证明自己不是特朗普 (guancha.cn)
“We’re not seeking — say it again, we are not seeking — a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocs,” he said. Yet in describing what he called an “inflection point in history,” he talked about the need to choose whether new technologies would be used as “a force to empower people or deepen repression.” At one point he explicitly referred to the targeting of Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region of western China.
The president’s senior aides, at least publicly, have been dismissing the idea that China and the United States, with the world’s largest economies, were dividing...But in private, some officials concede
 
As an ironist myself I can’t hide some amusement at the way Biden has turned into the Trump caricature that once populated the nightmares of anti-Trumpers, including Biden, the first of those anti-Trumpers
A clash with liberal and internationalist hero Macron involving the first ambassadorial recall in more than two centuries of history? Trump or Biden?
 
 
A joint French-German approach to China combining engagement with firm criticism of China’s human rights record could be the foundation of a distinctly more conciliatory European stance on the world’s most pressing strategic issue
 
 
 
 
蹩脚拜登
 
Biden’s foreign policy is a faithful continuation of Donald Trump’s and a repudiation of Barack Obama’s
But the growing concerns go well beyond any one episode. A senior European diplomat noted that, in dealings with Washington on everything from vaccines to travel restrictions, the Biden policies were “'America First’ in logic, whatever the rhetoric.” A Canadian politician said that if followed, Biden’s “Buy America” plans are actually more protectionist than Trump’s. Despite having criticized Trump’s tariffs repeatedly, Biden has kept nearly all of them. (In fact, many have been expanded since most exemptions to them have been allowed to expire.)
Biden and his team often criticized Trump for his assault on the rules-based international system. But how does one rebuild such a system while embracing naked protectionism, unilateral sanctions, limited consultations and America First policies on vaccines and even travel?
英国空姐：“It seems that these days you Americans just want a double standard that helps you no matter what others think.”
 
《外交事务》The Age of America First
Washington’s Flawed New Foreign Policy Consensus
外交老手哈斯（Richard Haass）
 
 
口头上说一套，事实上做另一套，是历届美国政府的惯用手段，但没有那一个像拜登当局那么公开，媒体那么配合
卢斯说出这样的话，也难为了
拜登和川普是貌离神合，都是美国第一
But being likeable is not the same as being a good ally. On that count, Europeans are starting to see continuities between Biden and Trump
The most striking is that Biden does not much value their opinion, even if he seems to be listening.
It is not the first time Biden has blindsided Europe — and it can boomerang. In May, the president announced that he would ask for the suspension of global vaccine patents at the World Trade Organization. The move was bold and unexpected. But it was stillborn.  It caught the Europeans by surprise and they killed it
The US and its European allies have yet to forge a convincing common front on China and look unlikely to do so.
As a result, the COP26 climate change summit that the UK is due to host in November risks becoming a train wreck. The British government is touting pledges from the private sector — a familiar augury of political failure
Biden talks a big game on global warming but is not walking the walk
John Kerry, Biden’s climate envoy, is travelling the world urging countries to do the things America will not do
国内（政治）条件不成熟不是借口，因为这只能证明你这个国家不行，不能承担责任，更没有资格充当领导
 
推翻美国民主，变天
 
 
Robert Kagan. His argument can be reduced to two main elements. First, the Republican party is defined not by ideology, but by its loyalty to Trump. Second, the amateurish “stop the steal” movement of the last election has now morphed into a well-advanced project
He must now understand that he will need devoted loyalists, of whom there will be plenty, to run the departments responsible for justice, homeland security, internal revenue, espionage and defence. He will surely put officers personally loyal to himself in charge of the armed forces
川普已经开始清洗党内不同意见者，不愿意为之效劳的，在各州以超越通过民主投票的反映的民意，用美国的间接民主夺走选举结果
“As has so often been the case in other countries where fascist leaders arise, their would-be opponents are paralysed in confusion and amazement at this charismatic authoritarian.”
Chart of survey responses showing that the US is a country divided and despondent
But neither the electoral system nor the Republican party will go back to what it was. The latter is now a radical party with a reactionary agenda.川普百年之后，小川普会接着出现
 
有色人种群体逃离民主党
 
After an eight-month review of the United States’ trade policies toward China, the Biden administration has concluded that Donald Trump was right and Joe Biden was wrong. On the campaign trail, Biden relentlessly attacked Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, calling them “disastrous.” Now, he has adopted those same “disastrous” policies.
 
 
你们这些糊涂虫，狂妄自大，不照照镜子，以为把中国当成人民公敌就有了目标，有了目的了，西方的衰落绝大部分是咎由自取，川普连任才是对自由民主最大的威胁
 
没人信拜登了
 
 
“Capitalism will destroy this country,” read one sign in the window of a Dollar General in Eliot, Maine, this spring. “If you don’t pay people enough to live their lives, why should they slave away for you?”
‘Everything Going the Wrong Way’
 
 
没错，拜登就是小川普
川普现象不是昙花一现
 
 
 
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