笨狼发牢骚
发发牢骚，解解闷，消消愁
正文
【所以在第二次世界大战之前，“强权就是公理”一直西方真正的准绳，以中国（清朝）背信弃义为借口侵略中国，只是一个借口。】
补充
2021.10.28
treating law as if its explanatory power were almost unlimited, as for example when the huge growth in the number of civil wars since 1945 is attributed to the fact that ‘these conflicts are not prohibited by the pact.’
Everything that has been achieved can be rescinded, forgotten, tossed away. That is the message Hathaway and Shapiro want to convey.
【冷战后美国处于单极时代，美国以军力取代外交的欣慰大增，奥巴马强化了这一趋势】
【奥巴马这么做，一方面是担心恐怖活动，这是情有可原的，另一方面也是为了面子，不愿意整天打打杀杀，不停地见到尸体，把军事行动转变成无人机暗杀，军方都不需要通告大家，事发了也不见报，美国老百姓高高兴兴继续过日子，政府也没用压力。这是政治方面的考虑，也情有可原。关键的问题，是奥巴马在公开场合把这种新的军事行动描述成一种人道的军事行动，把美国打点成规则、惯例和人道的捍卫者，这才是真正的矛盾。】
That was far from the truth. Obama himself had been so upset by excesses in the new incursion he ordered into Yemen that he stopped the drone attacks there for a year between 2010 and 2011
第一：不精确，第二，不确定，第三，法官侩子手
In just the first few months of 2009, after Obama took the oath of office, the initial metamorphosis of American war into humane form was achieved. As the worst sins of the prior administration were disowned, Obama’s lawyers claimed authority to continue war indefinitely across space and time, devising formal legal frameworks for targeted killings
But that lawyerliness often served as an elaborate rationalisation process. The president’s men and women, Savage has written, “were trying to fight al-Qaida while adhering to what they saw as the rule of law”. Though what they saw as the rule of law meant little more than self-regulation, their commitment to humane standards of fighting war
He was a politician whose career depended on protecting the American people. But not only did Obama design a far bigger and more encompassing form of war than necessary, and not only did he undermine the US’s earlier commitments to a legal order consecrating peace to do so
Then Trump went on to repeat the very same pirouette from anti-war candidate to endless war president that Obama had performed. And now Joe Biden risks doing the same.
*************
At its heart lies a convincing line of argument: recent efforts to humanize war by reducing its lethality have come at the expense of normalizing violence
Whereas the ambition of the nineteenth century peace movements and their successors was to outlaw war—or at the very least to establish forms of legal arbitration or international institutions to radically limit its occurrence—recent decades have been dominated by efforts to regulate the conduct of war.
“We had made a moral choice to prioritize humane war, not a peaceful globe”
remarkable change principally to the closing years of the Vietnam War
朝鲜战争是最不受约束，最残忍的战争，美国（双方）使用了一切可以使用的手段，造成的伤亡密度之大，比二战有过之无不及，但越战是促成国际法转变的契机，一是美国对自己在越战中形象的羞愧，Potentially endless violence has been ushered in under the guise of legal regulation. “In our time, swords have not been beaten into ploughshares. They have been melted down for drones”
美国以各种人道名义出兵干预他国，到了20世纪末，成了人道主义干预原则的所谓“保护责任”（Responsibility to Protect），就是说一旦发生人道主义灾难，如种族灭绝，那么世界在联合国倡导下有“责任”武力干预，当然这种干预主要是西方的武装干预，成了美国、北约和西方出兵的道德依据
Moyn contends that the “self-humanization of the [American] military under law” was arguably the most important post-Vietnam factor in the emergence of humane war.
The Kakarta Method
But basically, what I’m getting at is the longer the war on terror goes on, the longer these mechanisms, these tools exist, it’s a matter of time until there are people in these relevant positions who simply say, you know, particularly if I’m a senior lawyer at one of these agencies, I’ll come up with whatever pretext I need to come up with to say my operations are lawful.
This is exactly what happened during the Bush administration when an attorney named John Yoo and another named David Addington decided to essentially retcon the laws about torture and about surveillance to allow these things to happen. This happened in the Obama administration when attorneys named Marty Lederman and David Barron decided to manipulate and retcon the laws to permit the assassination of an American citizen. We see with Trump not discontinuity, but a whole lot of continuity in an uncomfortable way that I write this book to reckon with
A deeply tragic missed opportunity that put millions of people in peril that entrenched lawlessness in American national security, and then from their American government, that told itself that it was lawful.
Barack Obama really makes the forever war forever,
under Barack Obama, the opposite occurs
The N.S.A. grows more powerful, often by inertia, by allowing its tools not only to develop in sophistication, but now after a 2008 surveillance law that Barack Obama votes for knowing that he will very likely soon be president
It kills potential combatants. In particular, it kills what it calls military age males, people between, essentially, the ages of 16 and 50-odd something. And the point I’m trying to drive at is that throughout all of this, not only does Obama expand the aperture and the operations of the war on terror while viewing himself as winding all of this down, but he does so through a particularly perilous way, which is to say that he empowers a lot of lawyers to set up belts of process that the previous administration, as well as the subsequent administration, don’t bother with
从生活在大家都知道，有些行为是可以通过规章制度，用不近人情的方式来处理的，而且现代社会需要这种没有人情，公事公办的制度，但夺走一个人的生命是绝对不能属于这种行为的。奥巴马正是通过自己“诺奖的光环”，以为自己高高站在人道立场上行使这个世界唯一的超级大国的特权，而且是用一种人道的手段去实行的，这就把杀戳当成行政
建立反恐机制
反恐信念的常态化，法律的常态化
意识形态（敌我，伊斯兰基督教，有色人种白人，外夷国人）法律化
战争机械化，杀人游戏化（因为美国的高技术武器是个不对称的手段，
这种永久战是为了反恐，就是维护美国的安全，还是投射美国势力的手段？
反恐是把战线推到敌人家门口，这种用帝国武力威慑来反恐的方式，必然是以压制他人为手段的，压制他人迟早会产生新的敌人，所以这种前沿反恐的策略的逻辑就是永久战，所以不是因为威胁美国的恐怖活动永远存在，所以美国必须打一场永久战，而是美国的政策会不断地制造新的敌人，这些敌人打不过美国，只能以恐怖分子的身份出现，所以这一政策给奠定了这是一场永远也不会结束的战争，这一政策制造了这场永久战
奥巴马一切的所作所为，都加强了美国反恐战争这一国家机器，与他人，包括后任川普的拜登不同，奥巴马是个理想主义者，可正是这理想主义者，这人道主义者，这反战者，把美国
In spite of its brevity, the review captures two cornerstones of my account I cared most about: one is the centrality of racialization to the history of the laws of war; the other is the complex lawyerly morality of Barack Obama's role in that history
美中开战，大家都进集中营
中国行动（The China Initiative）
骚扰、起诉
赶走、清洗
Samuel Moyn: Rule based international order, humane wra
Endless war for human rights as domonation
But, she (Michèle A. Flournoy) added, “It’s important to draw a distinction between his appetite for nation-building, which is essentially nil, versus his appetite for using force if it’s necessary to defend U.S. national security, which I believe remains quite strong.”
In the Shadow of 9/11 | The Nation (Moyn review of other books)
Biden seems to recognize that humanitarianism, far more than politics, justified, legitimized, and, indeed, required violence
The international media tended to every report of violence across the country after largely ignoring the torture, rape, massacres, and other war crimes committed by Western armies and their allies as well as by the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and ISIS over the past twenty years
Even as Biden promises to forsake humanitarian interventions for political interests, he is still drawn back to the scene of cruelty that defines the former
Unaccountable, unrepresentative, and anti-political, humanitarian interventions are evaluated by internal and economic criteria that include best practice as determined by competitors, value for money as defined by the market, and efficient delivery as measured by budgets and timelines decided without the participation of beneficiaries
军工发了
Oh, the Humanity (justsecurity.org) (mix of brilliance and error)
smoothed the unjust exercise of power and paved the way to a dystopian future in which domination by force may evade the checking function of a legal order focused narrowly on collateral damage.
Moyn’s searing book is about nothing less than the mechanisms by which the powerful of the planet control the weak
presents a confounding mix of brilliant moral vision with maddening historical omissions and one-sidedness
The best the law can do is reflect our best selves, though surely it often mirrors our worst
state military power routinely included law-abiding force of jaw-droppingly brutal proportions
Front assult
Did making war more humane make war worse and longer?
That's what Moyn said. Haven't read the book, but had read 3 excerts. Pretty convinced he has a strong argument. But his inadvertant use of Mayer sparked some retort. Mayer strongly objected to both "anti war and anti atrocities are counterproductive" and
Then Dexter responded specific to Moyn. He said Moyn was wrong.
No he didn't say Moyn was wrong.
He said Moyn was wrong b/c he attribited it to the wrong reason. By Basically, by quoting Atkin, Dexter laid out the true reason is the industrial military complex has grown so big it's got a life of its own. Hardly anything new. But apparently Atkin's knwoldge of details and its inner working is so vivid that his story
Did Moyn say the human rights moement is wrong, as in
? "Human rights movement" is not wrong per se, but has a detrimental and pervers effect of making war forever. I think that's Moyn's point. "What it reveals is that, for some, the only imaginable alternative to more humane war is more brutal war--not less war." Ah, he is attacking
Maybe he expressed the resignation "you may as well not do it".
But is Moyn wrong? Dexter said "it was only after the revelations of Abu Ghraib that a majority of Americans came to think the war was a mistake", very true. But the interesting question is, if so, why did the war not end for another 16 years? Here is why Moyn is right. We all agree the industrial military complex doesn't want the war to end. It takes the politicians to end it. But politicians are always bought, "persuaded" with "reason of national security" for "change their mind" even if they campaign public
Moyn suggests that opposing war crimes blinds us to the crime of war. If this is an empirical claim, it’s contradicted by the facts.
To judge by survey results, it was only after the revelations of Abu Ghraib that a majority of Americans came to think the war was a mistake.
永久战并没有完，拜登就明言要继续下去，也许是要保卫美国人的安全，不受恐怖分子袭击的安全（新疆？），无人机暗杀和特种部队会接着把“美国的威严展示到世界的任何一个角落”，明言要打垮中国这死敌
As an exclamation point, Biden authorized two strikes targeting ISIS in Afghanistan, one of which reportedly killed Afghani civilians and children.
The administration is continuing the strategy that emerged under Obama, as, in the words of Hal Brands and Michael O’Hanlon, armchair strategists based at Johns Hopkins and Brookings, the United States “failed its way to counterterrorism success.” In what they dub the ”medium footprint strategy,”
The president even reviewed assassination targets each week. Obama ended dropping 10 times the drone bombs that Bush did. “Turns out I’m really good at killing people,” he quipped, “Didn’t know that was gonna be a strong suit of mine.”
One NPR correspondent said privately to me that America needed to do everything we could to stop the next terrorist attack, arguing that the ACLU’s hard-line defense of civil liberties was wrongheaded
拜登实质上是个务实者，但他的外交政策是用理想主义打包的
美国将会在8月31日全面撤出，避免引起和塔利班的冲突：
Asked by @karentravers about timeline to evacuate individuals from Afghanistan, Psaki says: "The possibility of a deterioration of coordination with the Taliban is real. Putting our service members at risk is real and those are certainly part of the president's decision making." pic.twitter.com/wFP9IAOrgz
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) August 24, 2021
“The worst capitulation of Western values in our lifetimes”
— Bruno Ma??es (@MacaesBruno) August 30, 2021
pic.twitter.com/Onl4MEg0wt
主题：美国控制不住中国
2018
sunk cost fallacy
正是现在批评拜登的那些人导致阿富汗失败，他把锅甩给拜登，拜登成了替罪羊
有人借攻击拜登撤军大错之机推行留守，其实很多人只是攻击拜登撤军大错，但是也有人看出撤军是有代价的
British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab just said the moral esponsibility for civilian casulties(including 6 children) caused by US drone strikes "lies with the terrorists"（责任全在他人）
But the history of great power interventions into insurgencies suggests that efforts to stabilize Afghanistan through democratization would have been futile. My research explains why the success of great power interventions to stabilize countries relies heavily on coercion and corruption, rather than democratizing overhauls.
拜登不仅保留了川普所有反华政策，连在美国国内清算华人的“中国行动”，在最近一连串丑闻，被揭露其目标和中国扫黑除恶，是设了指标，大家有任务抓人的，照样坚持下去
Joe Biden is displeased. After our recent editorial criticized the Vice President for privately telling Chinese leader Xi Jinping to ignore U.S. rhetoric on human rights, White House spokesman Stephen Spector wrote to object: “As he has said publicly many times, the Vice President sees human rights in China as fundamental to advancing U.S.-China relations.”
It turns out Mr. Biden has a long record of playing down human rights in private diplomatic meetings while mouthing support in public. His message to China’s Mr. Xi—that U.S. human-rights talk is meant to satisfy a “political imperative” from voters at home—is almost identical to what he told Soviet leaders as a Senator visiting Moscow in 1979.
中国与塔利班
【经济与世贸】
【从阿富汗逃离，拜登是不是丢了欧洲】
「」
「」
「零」「引子」
"Human rights will be the center of our foreign policy," Biden says.
— Susan Glasser (@sbg1) August 31, 2021
Still not clear on what that means. or how that is even possible. Human rights abusers do not give a damn about our harsh statements.
Wake up Europe! Your nanny has resigned.
— Gérard Araud (@GerardAraud) August 31, 2021
「一」「传说」
「二」「檄文」
「三」「圣战」
「四」「气炸」
「五」「“美国回来了”」
“When Biden says ‘America is back,’ many people will say, ‘Yes, America is back home,’” said François Heisbourg, a French defense analyst.
「六」「疯了，大家都疯了」
「七」「几个钱？」
The US failure makes it much harder for Biden to push his core message that “America is back”. By contrast, it fits perfectly with two key messages pushed by the Chinese (and Russian) governments. First, that US power is in decline. Second, that American security guarantees cannot be relied upon
「八」「谁是超级大国？」
“美国人说遭受到伊组恐怖袭击是等英国，我咋不知道？”
「九」「谣言」
「十」「西贡啥？」
「十一」「美国世纪」
「十二」「背叛」
「十三」「叫我怎么不伤心？」
「十四」「动摇」
「啊，太棒了」
「十五」「耻辱」
government officials seemed openly disoriented, expressing shock and fury at their own government, and a deep sense of shame. Another military officer urged me to publicly attack U.S. immigration officials for failing to process Special Immigrant Visa applications for roughly twenty thousand Afghan interpreters who had worked with U.S. forces. “These are extraordinary times,” the officer said. “It called for extraordinary measures. They failed. Hope you consider this.”
美国人以为“大战略”不在乎这些
“There is no system. The system has collapsed,” s
American-backed leaders in Afghanistan engaged in corruption and empowered warlords, even as some three hundred thousand Afghans joined the Army and the police to fight the Taliban. Sixty-six thousand of them perished. The Taliban suffered enormous casualties of their own, losing fifty-one thousand in battle.
“It’s hard to believe that we’ve abandoned the Afghans so overwhelmingly,” he said. “We created this society, like it or not.
「十六」「你坏」
「十七」「你这么想？」
「十八」「beiyue」
「十九」「这是真的？」
「廿」「拜登外交纲领就跟川普差不多」
「廿一」「解释解释“美国第一”」
「廿二」「」
「廿三」「」
「廿四」「」
「廿五」「」
「廿六」「」
「廿七」「」
「廿八」
「廿九」
「卅」
「卅一」
「卅二」
「卅三」
「卅四」
「卅五」
「卅六」
「卅七」
「卅八」
「卅九」
「卌」
Afghanistan also belonged to US allies.
It’s a failure of the Western world and it’s a game changer for international relations,” the European Union’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell
The United States looked blundering and inept, and it dragged its allies down with it
That has led to recriminations in London and Berlin and Brussels, directed at leaders there, and at the United States
“Was our intelligence really so poor?” former British Prime Minister Theresa May asked in Parliament earlier this month. “Was our understanding of the Afghan government so weak? Was our knowledge on the ground so inadequate? Or did we just think we had to follow the United States and on a wing and a prayer it would be all right on the night?”
Are the United Kingdom and Europe too dependent on the US for their security?
Joe Biden’s reassurances that “America is back” is not enough
the US communicated, but didn’t consult
欧洲，通过北约，完全是美国的从属，没有独立的能力，欧洲那种为自由民主奋斗的雄心，只是在美国逃跑，自己狼狈不堪后才发现一直是狐假虎威，这一切，把欧洲三大国德英法不久前非要高唱自己是全球势力（Global Briton, Global Germany, Global France, Global EU），是亚太大国，每个国家都来个亚太战略，还派几艘军舰跑到南海威风一把，显得极其可笑
美国根本没有跟盟友商量，只是通知一下，晒在一边，欧洲怎么想呢？是觉得被亏待了？你想过站在美国一边摇旗呐喊时那威风是怎么一回事过吗？结果欧洲，主要是德英，几乎来不及撤退，帮自己的那些阿富汗战友撤退，束手无措，结果国内只能张口大骂，原来盟友不是盟友，欧洲要求延长最后期限，美国简单“不”
A sense of impotence, Martin said, has laid bare the extent of allies’ dependence on the United States
The dependency on the United States fuels insecurity about what happens if the country’s domestic interests diverge more profoundly from Europe’s
Biden has said the right things, and has promised allies he will work to rebuild the relationship. But the Afghanistan exit adds to “this realization that maybe some of the things that were attributed to Trump were actually part of something deeper that’s going on in the US on both sides of the political spectrum,”
难民
德国：part of selling that mission to the public was selling its humanitarian mission,现在被打脸，怎么跟国人交代？
US allies are wondering where they fit in the US’s priorities
withdrawal added to a growing skepticism of the United States, and its larger commitment to collaboration with allies
过去十来年中东首先意识到，尤其是那些专制的产油国，不仅石油依赖中国，而不是美国，美国也要走了，大家都在下面留一手
现在欧洲也感觉到了，欧洲是重要，美国不会让欧洲成为自己的敌人，但除此之外欧洲就没什么本事，结果美国需要的时候哄一哄，不需要的时候不搭理
“平等的盟友关系”实际上是从属关系，跟中国为难时大家摇旗呐喊时要的，之外就呆到一边，别惹事
反驳：NATO allies were briefed on the plans at a joint meeting of foreign and defense ministers on April 14 of this year by none other than Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin themselves. Here’s how NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg described the meeting at the time:
All Allies agreed. And all Allies agreed actually a statement, which we agreed at the ministerial meeting today, where we clearly state that we now have decided to start the withdrawal of all our NATO troops from Afghanistan, starting first of May. And the plan is to finalize that drawdown, or withdrawal, within a few months
none of the diplomats and government officials believe that the pictures of the Taliban overrunning Kabul and the United States on the run will be without geopolitical consequences for Washington—and that includes the Biden administration’s campaign to build a coalition to counter China.
the space for Europe to get cozy with Washington has narrowed
For the time being at least, making the case for a robust partnership with Washington is not good politics.
联合国人权理事会，中国一直大声叫，要调查美国澳大利亚在阿富汗犯下的战争罪
“Those in Europe arguing for more autonomy and independence will be strengthened,” b/c “In the end, U.S. policy is still ‘America First.’
but the retreat heightens the sense that America’s backing is no longer unbounded
grumblings about American credibility, compounding the wounds of the Trump years and reinforcing the idea that America’s backing for its allies is not unlimited.
How on Earth did we get to a point in which "unlimited support for allies" became the expected norm??? Trita Parsi
“When Biden says ‘America is back,’ many people will say, ‘Yes, America is back home,’” said François Heisbourg, a French defense analyst.
That hesitation will now be felt all the more strongly among countries in play in the world, like Taiwan, Ukraine, the Philippines and Indonesia, which can only please China and Russia, analysts suggest.
美国这种“战略撤退”并不是今天才有的，很多人公开表示担忧，但骨子里却祈祷美国维持自由霸主、世界领袖的地位，在危机当头不会放弃自由世界，所以尽管美国越来越令人失望，但大家的希望还在那儿，这也是当拜登当局重新高举自由民主人权大旗与中国叫阵的时候，大家踊跃而上的原因。阿富汗政府崩溃的戏剧性再一次提醒大家霸主不仅能力有限，而且她的动机和目的与其他追求“自由民主人权”的人并不一致，这种希望与其说是美国的行为与愿望之间的差距，不如说是自己的一种混淆理想和现实的幻觉。
The country expressing the most concern has been China, which shares a short, remote border with Afghanistan, which under the Taliban served as a haven for Uyghur extremists from Xinjiang, the far western Chinese province
中国与塔利班的接触是不能当成当成双方将会有一个稳定关系的体现，毕竟双方对现代的观念相差太远，塔利班访华，表示塔利班意识到中国的实力和影响，意识到自己不能同时树立美国和中国两个敌人，但塔利班对政权稳定和经济发展的要求很低，把社会制度和生活方式放在首位，所以它对中国的依赖是次要的，如果中国处理得不好，双方随时可以反目成仇。
Those who recommended staying indefinitely did so in the full knowledge that 20 years of massive expense and effort could not produce a stable central government or a secure Afghanistan. There is zero evidence any outside force ever could do that. None ever has.
But it is also a severe blow to the West
But in the end, the timing and nature of the withdrawal were set in Washington
To become a more capable ally, Europe must invest more in its security capabilities and develop the ability to think and act in strategic terms
European Strategic Compass, a document that will precisely define our ambitions for security and defense for the next five to 10 years.
consisting of about 5,000 troops, that could undertake rapid and robust action. Helping to secure an airport in challenging circumstances, as in Kabul, c
这是笑话，美国5000人的部队也控制不了喀布尔机场，之所以没冲突，是塔利班想着以后的国际关系，而且美国是不是收买了塔利班也说不清，美国军方公开说他们时刻和塔利班有联系，最后一批撤退的，就是塔利班通过特殊路径，保护他们到机场的（其他人太多）
But we must go further and faster. The European Defence Fund, established to boost the bloc’s defense capabilities, will receive close to 8 billion euros, or $9.4 billion, over the next six years
A more strategically autonomous and militarily capable E.U. would be better able to a
The stunning meltdown of the U.S.’s Afghan client state
The dramatic scenes of despair in Kabul have frustrated and angered many American allies, particularly in Europe, inflicting considerable reputational damage
非常赤裸裸把利益摊在桌上
“中国俄国恳求美国继续参与”，哈
the American withdrawal was a deliberate policy move, even if it caused unintended consequences党媒
美国不理解战场不再军队较量
Even the closest of America’s allies, such as the U.K., have openly criticized the U.S. withdrawal. Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the foreign-affairs committee in the U.K. House of Commons and an Afghanistan war veteran, compared the debacle in Kabul to the 1956 Suez crisis, which bared the limits of British power and precipitated his nation’s strategic retreat
Since President Obama, the action has been of U.S. withdrawal, but my God, has this made it clear,” Mr. Tugendhat said in an interview.
The U.S. denouement in Afghanistan has raised particular concerns in Taiwan, the democratic island Beijing seeks to unite with the mainland—by force if necessary
The prevailing view among U.S. allies and partners in Asia is that Washington can now deliver, finally, on the “pivot to Asia” t
While the chaos in Afghanistan has at least temporarily undermined America’s credibility with partners and allies, these relationships, from Taiwan to Israel to Ukraine
government officials seemed openly disoriented, expressing shock and fury at their own government, and a deep sense of shame. Another military officer urged me to publicly attack U.S. immigration officials for failing to process Special Immigrant Visa applications for roughly twenty thousand Afghan interpreters who had worked with U.S. forces. “These are extraordinary times,” the officer said. “It called for extraordinary measures. They failed. Hope you consider this.”
美国人以为“大战略”不在乎这些
“There is no system. The system has collapsed,” s
American-backed leaders in Afghanistan engaged in corruption and empowered warlords, even as some three hundred thousand Afghans joined the Army and the police to fight the Taliban. Sixty-six thousand of them perished. The Taliban suffered enormous casualties of their own, losing fifty-one thousand in battle.
“It’s hard to believe that we’ve abandoned the Afghans so overwhelmingly,” he said. “We created this society, like it or not.
【盟友与国际影响】
Even as he asserted that “the buck stops with me,” Biden pointed fingers at everyone but himself: DONALD TRUMP tied his hands with his deal with the Taliban, the Afghan army wasn’t willing to fight, and some civilians didn’t initially want to leave
帝国不是请客吃饭：
reduced role for America as the world’s policeman worries allies in the Middle East and Europe
“It sounds like the end of an era,” said Bruno Macaes
reassure allies that “America is back” after four years of Trump’s
Britain, France and Germany, are unhappy with America’s end to the Afghanistan war, which came with little co-ordination
“Mr Biden wants to appeal to a strong notion of the American national interest. That has a cost: partners can no longer expect their own interests to be taken into account in major US foreign policy decisions,” Mr Macaes
“We are hearing from EU officials that a new caution is necessary on forging a common EU-US policy on China. That’s an immediate and heavy cost of the Biden decision,” said Mr Macaes,
European and Asian allies remain dependent
Finally, what is taking place should only encourage Europe to strengthen its strategic autonomy to make sure it can continue working with allies whenever it can—as well as autonomously any time it needs to. Nathalie Loiseau
the way this war ended presents a crisis of legitimacy for the transatlantic alliance, and for NATO in particular. Dave Keating
The credibility of US foreign policy, as well as its intelligence services and military, is so damaged that it harms the political and moral credibility of the West as a whole. Daniela Schwarzer
Many of the ideas coming from Washington have visibly stopped working. Bruno Maçães
《华人街日报》社论：How Biden Broke NATO - WSJ
The chaotic Afghan withdrawal has shocked and angered U.S. allies
警示一，帝国主义就是纸老虎
警示二，阿富汗果然是帝国坟场
警示三，决定胜负的是人不是武器
警示四，自大的结果就是自己打脸
警示五，农村包围城市再次得到验证
警示六，人心向背非常重要
警示七，美国是世界最大的破坏者
警示八，中国是世界最大的建设者
警示九，不改变就没有出路（指塔利班）
警示十，美国道德彻底破产了
操作：Sean Parnell@SeanParnellUSA
Right off the top of my head:
Begin AFG exfil in winter
Maintain intel & air power for ANA
Evac Civilians: Charities/NGOs
Evac Civilians: USG pax
Evac vetted Afghans
Transport high value equipment
Disable heavy arms
Evac US military
Terminate Kabul Airport ops
Transfer Bagram
Observers abroad see the culmination of decades of American incompetence
难民
数千（21300）阿富汗难民在欧洲的民军基地等待前往美国，但盟友担心美国拖延，找借口把这些难民留在欧洲，大家信不过美国
大约2万阿富汗人将会在美国定居，这不是个大数目，其他国家（加起来）接受的更多。拜登的撤军觉得既是一个战略决定，更是一个政治算计，一开始美国接受阿富汗难民人数极少，据媒体透露，美国外交部的头头几乎一天24小时再给全世界打电话，恳求大家接纳阿富汗难民。拜登的打算，是如何在中期选举里站住脚，保证能继续掌权，继续推行自己的政纲【这点跟共产党有不同的吗？】
塔利班：一路打回喀布尔
泰晤士时报代表英国是最狠的
Is Joe Biden up to the job? | News | The Sunday Times（Josh Glancy）（读）
— Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) August 22, 2021
Mitchell: "We have destroyed morale ... and it is a real problem for America's leadership abroad." pic.twitter.com/q8In4D7Qrp
真的？
But government officials and defence experts from across the region have told the Financial Times that the comparison between Afghanistan and Washington’s relationship with the rest of Asia is misplaced.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-02/juniper-mystery-attacks-traced-to-pentagon-role-and-chinese-hackers
https://twitter.com/matthew_d_green/status/1433451378391883782
军工也是一份职业
The Strategic Logic of a Forever War：The United States should have ignored sunk costs in Afghanistan and maintained a light military footprint
This may be the most dishonest of the "sustainable status quo" arguments I have seen so far, and there has been a lot of competition for that distinction
伤感
拜登班子内斗
补充
哦
共同富裕，怎么共同富裕？
2021下半年经济
第四：Could China’s rising household debt threaten Beijing’s consumer-led growth vision? | South China Morning Post（2021.08.07）
千万贷款，值一千八百万的三个单位（如果原价一千五百万，首期三成就是四百五十万，千万贷款表示刚刚买了不久升值20%，卖掉一个个净赚一百万，就能完全周转过来，但如果刚买不久就升值20%，谁愿意卖？），存款只剩20万，月供6万，还有其他消费，但还是不愿意卖掉一个单元。反映：全民押在房产，房价升也不是，降也不是
By the end of last year, China’s household debt as a percentage of disposable income had reached a record high of 130.9 per cent
当收入都用到利息上的时候，资源就不是用在刀刃上
必须剧烈的房地产税，免税额，第二套以上不计面积全面3%以上（五百万的3%也只有15万），第三套6%（30万了），等等，如果像上面的两套多余的，每年45万税，那么工资就不能承担，迫使大家出售
Household debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) stood at 62.0 per cent at the end of the second quarter, down 0.1 percentage points from its historic peak of 62.2 per cent at the end of last year, and 0.1 percentage points below the first quarter of this year.
这一政策基本堵死出租房，是不是妥当呢？大家又到那里投资呢？如果只有股市，是不是另一个泡沫呢？
help the family sell their three-bedroom flat to raise 8-9 million yuan.
疯了，这才是内卷，赌“Everyone’s loans and leverage are piling up. If you don’t increase yours, you will lag behind in wealth. Of course the risks are growing like crazy, but no one dares to lower leverage, neither the rich nor the government.”
“维护房地产市场的健康发展，维护住房消费者的合法权益”
说教
但这“保障了基本民生”的背后却是在2020年中国民间增加了1.7万亿（美元）的债务来弥补政府无为带来的消费缺口，自救的结果【16】
Over the past five years from 2015 to 2019, China’s households have added $4.6 trillion in borrowing, compared to a $5.1 trillion expansion in US household debt from Q3 2003 to Q3 2008.2008
A new look at the declining labor share of income in the United States McKinsey Global Institute (2019)
The LabourShare in G20Economies OECD (2015)
THE GLOBAL LABOUR INCOME SHARE AND DISTRIBUTION ILO, (2019)
（点击放大）
丹麦、英国的财富、人生遗传性
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W270RE1A156NBEA
税收比例低，并不一定是说总收入低或福利低
中国的数字显然可疑
有意思：
收入分布
张维迎：市场经济与共同富裕
张维迎是北大教授，信奉西方自由市场，经常跟政府为难，还好命比许章润好多了，他在经济50人论坛写了一篇文章，向共同富裕质疑，被西媒广泛引用，
公众号：大海里的针
China’s push for “common prosperity” is not just about taxing the rich but also directing resources into rural areas and the lower-income group, according to one of the country’s most prominent experts studying income inequality.
中国的贫富不均在特征上跟美国很相像，垄断性的行业（金融、高技术），高技术职位（对教育依赖性极强），技术人才往往是收入和资产都大大高于社会平均。政府起到了推动的作用，第一税收制度不健康，第二把资源（配套基建、土地、资本和行政支持，如规章制度上的优惠）投在支持这些新兴产业上，第三主要把投资放在城市。
李实特变指出中国的税收制度非常不妥，直接税收（收入）只占三分之一，间接税收反而是三分之二，前者减轻分化，后者加剧分化，全世界这的比例是反过来的。
李实解释的这些简单事实，说明中国改革开放依赖一直是一种非常亲资本，贱劳工的制度，只是因为发展的太快，大家都得益，才让人忽视了社会上层拿走了绝大部分果实这么一个事实，就是说，这一段时期中国有钱人是在世界都是最惬意的。同样的制度也反映在企业管理，政府对企业的优惠，这是近期习近平两打，全面监管企业，反垄断，封杀一些行业，和共同富裕一下子涌出来，吓得大家发抖。这原因是企业和有钱人一直享受特殊待遇，资本与政府基本是一家人，如果政府要改，也得有个过程，可习近平一下子半年却盘出台，大家精神上没做好准备。
李实特别提到城乡差别，建议政府增加农村教育的投资，我也说过好几次这多重要
共同富裕肯定不是富裕
最近震荡中外的是习近平讲话里强调的“共同富裕”。习近平每天都讲话，习近平讲话是要提醒各级领导干部他的旨意是什么，让大家反省是不是跟上队伍了，习近平讲话也是要提醒所有各级干部老百姓「通过严明政治纪律和政治规矩，推动各级党组织和党员干部始终自觉地在政治立场、政治方向、政治原则、政治道路上同以习近平同志为核心的党中央保持高度一致，确保党中央一锤定音、定于一尊的权威」。本来很习近平说了那么多，难说到底哪句话，哪个方针是最重要的，这次之所以受重视，是因为过去快一年以来中国政府开始加紧对大型民企和平台的整治，从蚂蚁上市被拒，阿里被罚，到网络数据管制，滴滴到美国上市后受打，到破除阿里腾讯美团的垄断，铩羽各大平台，绞杀整个补习产业，限制游戏时间，重申996违法【1，2】，消灭娘炮，根绝饭圈，大家发现把习近平当成只是喜好事无巨细，啥都插一手，却不必当真的话，是要摔跟头的，政府以前只说不做，现在可能变了，所以习近平的讲话，用的每一个字、词，都被严加分析，当最近一次讲话数次提到“共同富裕”后，外媒都坐不住了，《彭博》一分析【2】，发现大事不好，以前“共同富裕”只是偶尔提提，今年“共同富裕”用量是爆炸式增加：
习近平讲话里“共同富裕”每年出现的次数
再也不能视而不见了。那次中央财经委员会会议，中国的大头都出席了，是大家站队，还是习近平的新政得到了中央普遍的支持，都无关紧要，每句话，每个字都得当真。不过你要是读读中央财经委员会会议的公布，并没有什么惊人之处，就是通过改善分配机制（如税改）来使得社会分配更加公平：
“推动更多低收入人群迈入中等收入行列”，“完善养老和医疗保障体系、兜底救助体系、住房供应和保障体系”，“依法保护合法收入，坚决取缔非法收入”都是非常对老百姓有利的政策，“形成中间大、两头小的橄榄型分配结构”也绝对是西方正统经济学的观念，中国如果不是，那就是有问题，有问题要改，不是什么怪事，那什么引起了震荡？是“三次分配”，“合理调节过高收入，鼓励高收入人群和企业更多回报社会”，因为这马上让人联想到“共产”，习近平的共同富裕肯定是杀富济贫，在有钱人听了发抖后党媒出头说“不是杀富济贫”有点乱此地无银三百两了，说不是却要求主动三次分配，
共同富裕的背景，目的和意义，兔主席有详细的解释【4，5，6，7，8】，
共同富裕“不是杀富济贫”，“不是平均主义”
习近平讲的共同富裕有没有根据，理由和法律基础呢？都有，
在政府这一轮攻势下，继马云退出阿里后，拼多多黄峥，京东刘强东，字节跳动张一鸣纷纷退居二线，有避难之意，像是政府不容
禁止996会影响企业创新吗？
习近平总书记“无论是会议上的发言、调研时的谈话，还是出访时的演讲、报刊上的文章，他都善于用故事来传达深意，感染他人，于细微动人之处向世界诠释中国智慧、中国方案和中国力量”
China’s richest 20% earn more than 10 times the poorest 20%, a gap that hasn’t budged since 2015. The country counts 400 million people -- about one-third of its population -- in its middle class, defined as those with annual household income between 100,000 yuan ($15,392) and 500,000 yuan. More than 600 million people in China still live on a monthly income of 1,000 yuan
一是坚持以人民为中心的发展思想，我明确提出了坚持以人民为中心的发展思想。2020年10月29日，在党的十九届五中全会上，我进一步强调要努力促进全体人民共同富裕取得更为明显的实质性进展
二是不再简单以国内生产总值增长率论英雄
三是我国经济处于“三期叠加”时期
四是经济发展进入新常态
五是使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用、更好发挥政府作用
六是绿水青山就是金山银山
我们决不能允许贫富差距越来越大、穷者愈穷富者愈富，决不能在富的人和穷的人之间出现一道不可逾越的鸿沟
实现共同富裕，要统筹考虑需要和可能，按照经济社会发展规律循序渐进。同时，这项工作也不能等，要自觉主动解决地区差距、城乡差距、收入差距等问题，推动社会全面进步和人的全面发展，促进社会公平正义，让发展成果更多更公平惠及全体人民，不断增强人民群众获得感、幸福感、安全感，让人民群众真真切切感受到共同富裕不仅仅是一个口号，而是看得见、摸得着、真实可感的事实
美国人觉得习近平这么做一箭双雕，一是赢得国内民心，继续担任 党和国家领导人，二是在中美冷战中把中国提升到一个更吸引人的位置，这第二点是有历史依据的，也是显而易见有影响力的
Xi wants to reverse economic inequality would be if the government pushed through measures such as introducing property and inheritance taxes aimed at the rich. Such moves could be challenging because many of the elite have links to the party, and anger could flare among many Chinese people who have bought up housing as their main investment.
是，如果打击过于严厉，房价大跌，那受影响的范围太广，社会是会动乱的
提高发展质量效益，夯实共同富裕的物质基础
看看其中两项的具体计划，在“深化收入分配制度改革，多渠道增加城乡居民收入”，要点有“统筹各类职业技能培训资金，合理安排就业补助资金，健全统筹城乡的就业公共服务体系”，“创造公平就业环境，率先消除户籍、地域、身份、性别等影响就业的制度障碍（包括取消户口限制，不能因为30岁以上，生孩子等就受歧视）”，“支持企业通过提质增效拓展从业人员增收空间，合理提高劳动报酬及其在初次分配中的比重，合理调整最低工资标准（意思是提高工资）”，“加快构建产教训融合、政企社协同、育选用贯通的技术技能人才培养培训体系，完善技能人才薪酬分配政策，拓宽技术工人上升通道。对有劳动能力的低收入群体，坚持开发式帮扶，提高内生发展能力，着力发展产业使其积极参与就业（培训）”，“完善再分配制度（税收改革）”。在“缩小城乡区域发展差距，实现公共服务优质共享”里，“推进城乡区域基本公共服务更加普惠均等可及，稳步提高保障标准和服务水平。推动义务教育优质均衡发展，建成覆盖城乡的学前教育公共服务体系”，“以人定地、钱随人走制度，切实保障农民工随迁子女平等接受义务教育，逐步实现随迁子女入学待遇同城化”，“加快建设强大的公共卫生体系，深化县域医共体和城市医联体建设，推动优质医疗资源均衡布局”，把乡村教育水平和医疗水平提高到城市的程度，农村入城享受城市待遇，就是对农村居民的一个重大援助
打造新时代文化高地，丰富人民精神文化生活
践行绿水青山就是金山银山理念，打造美丽宜居的生活环境
坚持和发展新时代“枫桥经验”，构建舒心安心放心的社会环境
保障措施
如果美国总统这么说，社会会有什么反应？
习近平每句话都用“我”
“中国共产党人的初心和使命，就是为中国人民谋幸福，为中华民族谋复兴”。
兔主席对“党”的总结也是挑好的说，带过了党内残酷的斗争，带来的灾害和发展后的极大腐败，“付出了血的代价”
“另一种人则选择把党所有的历史与政策都用纯政治的角度去理解。这种看法认为，要掌握党的“真谛”，就要透过其表面的措辞，看到背后的政治权力的博弈与斗争——因为归根到底一切都是权力与利益的分配”，西方
兔主席引用习近平的话，多次说“我们又犯错误”，要承认犯了错误，首先要接受实事求是，唯物主义，外界是不以人的意志为转移的，一个绝对权威者，是可以拒绝承认现实的
习近平现在像一个皇帝，也像一个机器，一般人是没有机会跟他说话的，他以前那种跟记者对话的机会是见不到了
字节跳动副总裁李亮实名“举报”：“此前腾讯与某机构出台报告称游戏无害，受某中学老师批评。就这一篇批评文章，腾讯就推动某地公安立案，刑询这位反对游戏毒害学生的中学老师，此案至今没有结论。”深圳基本上是是资本控制的城市，政府就是为了资本服务，说深圳政府是一个被黑帮收买的政府都未必过分，腾讯这种超越法律的行为不时见到。
诋毁中国的
？
China’s richest 20% earn more than 10 times the poorest 20%，高于美国和德法
It’s hard to know.揣摩是习近平终身制的
leaving everyone to speculate about massive wealth redistribution and the nationalization of private companies.
They only have to look to the last 15 years: It’ll be more of the same.
raising the bar on industrial policy
The reality is, as analysts at independent research firm Gavekal Dragonomics recently wrote, China “does not view consumer internet companies as the nation’s leaders of technological innovation: that role belongs instead to the manufacturing sector.”
Viewed through this lens, the next decade will be more of the same: An attempt to make higher quality and more accessible industrial goods and, ultimately, create a more level playing field across companies and industries.
working without the state’s helping hand and paying more taxes will be the bigger challenge.
专栏，有点猜，但至少不瞎扯
A significant portion of Chinese adults are in the middle-income bracket, making them better off than the average adult in the rest of the world
蛋糕论
Xi, poised to begin a third term in 2022, is turning towards inequality after concluding a campaign to eliminate absolute poverty,
虽然各类收入总体上都表现为持续的恢复之势，但速度明显出现了分化：工资性收入和转移净收入恢复较慢，财产净收入和经营净收入恢复则更快，甚至大幅度超过了疫情之前的水平：
仅依靠城镇就业率并不能充分反映劳动力市场的全部面貌，因为这里并没有将农民工纳入统计当中。所以，我们有必要对农民工的就业状况做一番探索
回顾近期国家出台的一系列举措，从整顿社区团购、打压房价，到限制教培、叫停“996”，再到三次分配与共同富裕，这一切的一切都在佐证着发展风向的转变——如果说过去是效率优先，兼顾公平，那么未来就是效率和公平并重，国家正在尽最大努力给每一个人提供更加公平的任何机会，减轻老百姓的种种负担，也充分表明了高层对于解决发展不平衡问题、实现共同富裕的决心和态度。对于缩小收入差距、改善居民生活、促进消费增长、推动经济社会更高质量发展来说，这些都是再好不过的消息
kaitou
痴人说梦话，但是城市居民
Now, Xi Jinping has put China’s tycoons on notice that it is time for them to share more wealth with the rest of the country.
“A powerful China should also be a fair and just China,” Yao Yang, a professor of economics at Peking University who endorses the shift in priorities, said by email. “China is one of the worst countries in terms of redistribution, despite being a socialist country. Public spending is overly concentrated in cities, elite schools and so on.”
力度大，太急，太狠
胡祖六“富裕富裕，共同富裕别成了共同贫穷了”
“最好的医生在北上，我们穷人治病上哪治？什么共同富裕，没听说过。”
为什么中国要针对私企，而不是国企？因为“两个毫不动摇”，毫不动摇巩固和发展公有制经济，毫不动摇鼓励、支持、引导非公有制经济发展，中国的治国观念是普天之下莫非王土，王土的意思并不是说这是个人的，而是说是国家的，中国现代的机制是政、党合一，国家的党的，都是一回事，党的意思是“国家的就是人民的”，所以并没有私念，只是当代为管理而已，最终，这些财富是要“服务于人民”的。既然国企是国家的一部分，能动手的，只有私企了。
刘鹤强调：“支持民营经济发展的方针政策没有变，现在没有改变，将来也不会改变！这无疑给市场吃下了一颗‘定心丸’”，“党的十五大把‘公有制为主体、多种所有制经济共同发展’确立为我国的基本经济制度，明确提出“非公有制经济是我国社会主义市场经济的重要组成部分”
zhege
习近平总书记曾强调，“我国民营经济只能壮大、不能弱化，不仅不能‘离场’，而且要走向更加广阔的舞台。”
zhege
浙大李实
一是为政府筹集资金用于公共支出，二是调节收入分配，缩小收入差距。相比而言，中国税收的第二个功能没有发挥应有的作用。一方面这与税收结构有关系
若要让税收在调节收入分配方面发挥更大的作用，就需提高直接税比重，降低间接税比重。直接税包括个人所得税，财产税或房产税，遗产税，赠与税等等
在调整税收结构时要遵循的原则是，不能增加整体税负的水平。当前应该考虑开征房地产税、遗产税、财产税等直接税，但要考虑减少间接税
要解决社会阶层流动性放缓的问题，还是要依靠公共服务水平的均等化，尤其是教育资源的均等化「均等化，和上面“不增加整体税负水平”一起，是把资源转向社会底层，但能不能把政府从国企的税收转移到福利上呢？」
在中国的收入分配制度中，初次分配和二次分配处于更重要的地位，应该说比第三次分配要重要得多。所以，还是要花更大力气去解决初次分配当中存在的问题「共同富裕和第三次分配挂钩，是个障眼法」
当前社会阶层流动性、收入流动性、代际流动性确实都出现了不同程度的放缓，要解决这个问题，还是要依靠公共服务水平的均等化，尤其是教育资源的均等化
建设成福利国家不应该是我们的共同富裕所追求的目标，我们没有必要这样做。而且，中国的经济发展程度、社会富裕程度还没有达到可以建设福利国家的程度，更多要考虑的是要同步推进发展和共享。因此，按照当年北欧的福利国家模式建设中国福利制度是不合适的。但政府在进一步提高公共服务、社会保障、社会福利等方面的水平时可以借鉴北欧部分政策
Some of the actions have been reactive, others deeply studied: Beijing surveyed 17,000 firms and 700,000 parents before its education ban
In my view, the biggest source of uncertainty today is the Cyberspace Administration (CAC), which has asserted power to regulate IPOs, algorithms, and financial media. Unlike most other regulators, it is a party organization, its chief a vice-director at the Propaganda Department
【大学生职场调查：超6成自认10年内年入百万】中青报面向全国各地大学生发起关于就业的调查，2700份问卷调查结果显示：00后对自己进入职场后的薪资比较乐观，超过20%的大学生预期自己毕业后月薪过万，其中8.20%男生和3.25%女生预期自己会进“5万元俱乐部”，67.65%大学生评估自己毕业10年内会年入百万
税收的主要来源：中国和其他国家的比较
这里
zhege
中央党校（国家行政学院）马克思主义学院院长、教授张占斌撰
要坚持以人民为中心的发展思想，正确处理效率和公平的关系，促进社会公平正义，促进人的全面发展，在高质量发展中促进共同富裕。必须立足新发展阶段，贯彻落实新发展理念，紧盯全面建设社会主义现代化国家的前进方向，坚持和完善社会主义基本经济制度，牢牢把握“两个毫不动摇”，加快完善社会主义市场经济体制，提高发展的平衡性、协调性、包容性，调动方方面面创新发展的积极性、主动性，加快构建目标明确、方向一致、相融相济、科学合理的体制机制和政策体系，构建初次分配、再分配、三次分配协调配套的基础性制度安排，加大税收、社保、转移支付等调节力度并提高精准性，形成中间大、两头小的橄榄型分配结构，使全体人民朝着共同富裕目标扎实迈进
浙江工商大学校长、浙江大学社会治理研究院院长郁建兴
共同富裕也不能只是依靠不断加重个人税赋负担、出台过多的社会政策、过多过高承诺提高社会保障水平来实现
清华大学习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究院院长艾四林
中国式现代化是全体人民共同富裕的现代化，共同富裕路上，一个不能掉队，体现了富裕的全面性。按照党的共同富裕“路线图”，到2035年，全体人民共同富裕取得更为明显的实质性进展；到本世纪中叶，全体人民共同富裕基本实现。可见，中国式现代化解决了西方现代化伴生的两极分化问题。而且，在中国式现代化进程中，坚持以人民为中心，始终把人的全面发展放在突出位置，就是要实现人的全面发展的现代化
is signaling plans to more assertively promote social equality, as he tries to solidify popular support for continued Communist Party rule
The government needs to “encourage high-income people and enterprises to give back to society more” and to “create opportunities for more people to become rich,” state-run Xinhua News Agency cited an official report of the meeting as saying
He wants this to demonstrate that socialism is better than Western capitalism in caring for all the population
the country’s Gini-coefficient, a measure of inequality, widened to 70.4 in 2020 from 59.9 in 2000, making China one of the world’s most unequal major economies, according to data from Credit Suisse
四亿人月入不过一千
now include diverting more financial support to poorer regions and taming property prices.
终身制造势
事实充分证明，非公有制经济在我国经济社会发展中的地位和作用没有变！毫不动摇鼓励、支持、引导非公有制经济发展的方针政策没有变！致力于为非公有制经济发展营造良好环境和提供更多机会的方针政策没有变！
李光满胡锡进之争，有人说“一场新的文革正在开始”，这是对贫富不均的反应，对镀金时代
But in his efforts to assert ever-greater personal control over both the party and civil society, he is flirting with propaganda tools and intimidation tactics that many observers see as a throwback to the Mao era，引导大众意志打击个别个人、群体、阶层和行业。非常有针对性
Xi has made it clear that the party must not abandon its revolutionary ideals — that it is duty-bound to deliver “common prosperity” and stand up to the west, especially the US.
人民对美好生活的向往就是我们的奋斗目标
declared that it was necessary to “regulate excessively high incomes” in order to ensure “common prosperity for all”
限制租金增长过快（5%上限），学区房
《金融时报》总是通过权力的眼光来看待中国
兔主席：习近平共同富裕与文革毫无关系，更像美国桑德斯和民主党议员科贴丝（AOC）的政纲，是为了限制资本无限的权力，
According to this argument, people should judge Xi’s administration not by its often draconian means but by its ends《金融时报》不信，尤其是对习的终身制恶心
粗暴、突然，缺乏明朗下和可预测性
数据作为一种资源，工具，武器，既是主权，也是监控
creating a grand experiment for 21st century authoritarian governance.
Beijing aims to have it both ways. It believes that technologies will shore up social control and suppress political dissent without damping the entrepreneurial vigour or the innovation that animate the world’s fastest-growing large economy.
数据国有化
数据主权不是中国特有的，在美国，这是不言而喻的，因为美国控制，垄断世界数字经济的大头，但这种管制可能导致世界进一步脱钩
分割中西的金融市场，有阻断中国企业融资的嫌疑
“Techno-authoritarian state”一切为了保住自己的统治地位，太单纯，简单
数字列宁主义、技术集权
控制控制还是控制
“I think the solution that [Xi Jinping] has settled on is Orwell,” said Scott Kennedy
“数据是一种新型生产要素，与土地、劳动力、资本、技术要素并列，共五大生产要素”
李光满老师次日的文章毫不避讳地说：“各大央媒集中统一刊发一篇来自公众号自媒体的文章十分罕见，显然是新闻宣传主管部门和网信主管部门的统一安排，由此形成了非常强势的宣传效应。”
人民日报后来都删了
The quest for dominance has generated neither peace nor democracy at home or abroad
社融
金融数据分析手册（李奇霖）
李奇霖
理解中国宏观经济（一）2019年12月27日
这是一？https://new.qq.com/omn/20210619/20210619A05POB00.html
理解中国宏观经济（三）2021年07月23日
理解中国宏观经济（四）2021年09月06日
煤进口
塔利班，和平，安全
经济
美国经济
大经济
泛太协定
恒大
Productivity growth adjusted for the expanding stock of buildings, machinery and other capital was 2.6% a year from 2000 to 2010. It has been negative since 2015, a sign of how inefficient much of that investment has been
property contributes 30% of value added in China, and sales of land contribute 27.5% of local government revenue比我查到的要高
“汽车新四化——电动化、智能化、网联化、共享化浪潮开启，百年汽车产业正站在大变局大洗牌的黎明前夜。”
2020年8月28日底，恒大首席经济学家任泽平在《全球新能源汽车发展报告2020：百年未有之大变局》开头如是写道。
恒大汽车“停工通知书”背后，发生了什么？-虎嗅网（2020.04）
恒大造车一年，究竟造出了点啥？-虎嗅网（2020.04）
恒大汽车引战260亿港元，许家印朋友圈再次发挥巨大能量 | 南方周末（2021.01）
房产
中国和中东
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