笨狼发牢骚
发发牢骚，解解闷，消消愁
正文
美国确证人数最多，峰期也还没到，但难说说世界上迄今最惨的，意大利西班牙死的人都令人发抖，国家所受冲击也最大。在中国，死亡的人数肯定不止三千，据公开的规矩，不在医院死亡，或不是死于冠状肺炎的，都不在统计数字之内，我瞎猜此次瘟疫引起的死亡人数大概有七千。
Some in our media can’t contain their glee & delight in reporting that the U.S. has more #CoronaVirus cases than #China— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 29, 2020
Beyond being grotesque,its bad journalism
We have NO IDEA how many cases China really has but without any doubt its significantly more than why they admit to
昨天说了，不论美国目前是不是最惨的，但按照真个趋势肯定会变成最惨的，因为人口在哪儿，在中央主管的专家之一，Birx，原来很有声誉、地位，但最近一把舔川，被人看成李兰娟式的马屁虫，她也说十万到二十万是最好的结局，全国上上下下一心一意才行。
这有多少可能？
Across the country, social distancing is becoming a way to signal which side of the culture war you’re on. The consequences could be disastrous
别忘了，美国是个自由国度，生死事小，主义唯大。虽然伊朗数据大概有水分，但美国发展居然比伊朗还恐怖，十足体现了我们这个伟大国家的真实面目：
（David Wallace-Wells）Coronavirus Shows Us America Is Broken
再给大家提提糟到什么程度：今天测试盒子还是奇缺。
世界上大王们第一责任是邀功
全国这么糟，纽约自然逃不了。
按照我前天引用的华大较为权威的预测（美国疫情发展，这个预测很恐怖），这是纽约的预测：
4月9日是医疗使用峰点，需要7万张病床，缺近6万，，急诊室需要1万1千张病床，缺1万
现在每日死亡才开始爬升，逼近一千，大概10日才到峰期，总的死亡人数1万5千
美国新闻自由，好了，这是现状。
A supervisor urged surgeons at Columbia University Irving Medical Center in Manhattan to volunteer for the front lines because half the intensive-care staff had already been sickened by coronavirus.
“ICU is EXPLODING,” she wrote in an email.
A doctor at Weill Cornell Medical Center in Manhattan described the unnerving experience of walking daily past an intubated, critically ill colleague in her 30s, wondering who would be next.
Another doctor at a major New York City hospital described it as “a petri dish,” where more than 200 workers had fallen sick.
Two nurses in city hospitals have died
“It’s all a war zone,” one of the paramedics said
Days later, another paramedic, Phil Suarez, was dispatched to two homes in Manhattan’s Washington Heights neighborhood, where entire families, living in cramped apartments, appeared to be stricken with the virus.
“I’m terrified,” said Mr. Suarez, who has been a paramedic in New York City for 26 years and had assisted in rescue efforts during the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks and later served in the Iraq war. “I honestly don’t know if I’m going to survive. I’m terrified of what I’ve already possibly brought home.”
Across the country in Washington state—which was then the seat of the country’s biggest COVID-19 hotspot—testing had been underway at the University of Washington, with whom Crawford was in regular contact. Doctors there were noticing an 8 percent positivity rate—that is, 8 percent of all the coronavirus tests they ran came back positive. In the world of laboratory science, that was considered extremely high. But when Northwell labs ran their first batch of tests on 20 samples, five came back positive, a 25 percent positivity rate. This was an astonishingly high—and frightening—number.
"We are chasing the virus," Crawford says, "and the virus is getting ahead of us."
“The data will begin to show when we have turned a corner,” Crawford told me. “And we haven’t yet.”
也许这个最恐怖：
《嗡鸣快信（Buzzfeed News）》A Nurse Shared A Harrowing Photo Of COVID-19 Victims To Show How Horrifying The Outbreak Is
目前全世界印度、巴西是个迷，鬼才知道咋回事，非洲呢？十天前说你没注意，“习近平世界大战”已经开打了，还真是那么一回事。
窝家等着亚马逊、Costco送货上门，还能等到那天？
其实，就差俩字：尊严！
"我瞎猜此次瘟疫引起的死亡人数大概有七千。"
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这个有点靠谱，官方好像也默认。前期未检测的死亡人数没有计算在内。
纽约成不了武汉，武汉后来的医护的达到了20万，基本上是3个医护管一个病人。中国可以集全国之力支持武汉，美国的状况好像不太可能了。
change.org/p/congress-everyone-wears-a-face-mask-to-combat-coronavirus
冠状病毒从无症状的人传播到他人是一个严重的问题。许多人感染了冠状病毒, 但从未表现出任何症状, 或者症状很轻, 以至于他们从未意识到自己感染了冠状病毒。今天, 有症状的人将被隔离, 但在确认感染该病毒之前, 他们可能已经传给了很多人。口罩会让这种情形变得不同。如果您感染了冠状病毒, 口罩将阻止您扩散到他人。如果您还没有感染冠状病毒, 则面罩将减少您被感染的机会。在其他国家与这种新型冠状病毒的斗争中, 口罩已证实有效。非医务人员不需要N95口罩, 只需要常规手术口罩。口罩的成本比经济成本和医疗费用便宜得多。口罩, 社交疏远和洗手将共同帮助美国战胜冠状病毒。美国已经付出沉重代价。一旦病毒卷土重来回来后, 我们负担不起再一次的隔离。我们正在与冠状病毒赛跑。我们必须为我们的国家美国做好准备。国会需要通过一项立法, 1.优先为医疗人员提供个人保护设备(包括口罩); 2.支持在美国国内生产口罩; 3.在大流行期间, 在所有公共场所强制使用口罩。
数字能不造假吗？
"我瞎猜此次瘟疫引起的死亡人数大概有七千。"
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恐怕全世界都是如此，真实的死亡人数可以在统计数字上乘以一个系数。德国如此，日本如此。美国也如此。
但统计数据给出了一个比较可靠的指标，而且这个指标可以用来在不同国家之间比较。这才是统计的用处。
难道武汉的2500多不是人？
前期是因为医疗资源不够，无法确诊收治，这是技术性的
武汉透明
? ? ? ?
比较客观。我的估算是在武汉因为新冠死亡的大概是官方的2倍，依据就是有一天把CT作为确诊计入时，死亡数加倍，同时大概还有次生灾害(因为肺炎而无法救助的一些急性病患者)的死亡数，这个比较难以估计，大概0.5-1倍，合起来武汉死亡数大致在5，500-7，000