笨狼发牢骚
发发牢骚，解解闷，消消愁
正文
首先发生的是突然而来的升级，淳朴（美国总统DonaldTrump，人称特朗普或川普）一推，举世颤抖。从随后媒体的报道来看，墨西哥是处处想方设法满足美方的要求，我在从印太战略到关税大棒里说墨西哥是逆来顺受，没想到墨西哥真的只有息事宁人的意愿。到了最后美方接受墨西哥的让步妥协，虽然墨西哥处于被动局面，我还暗暗为淳朴喝彩，虽然无赖，但对手不得不投降，是本事。
后来媒体开始爆出详情，算是有些头绪。
首先，《纽时》说所谓在处置难民的让步，其实是墨西哥早就应允的，与这次淳朴发旋无关（Mexico Agreed to Take Border Actions Months Before Trump Announced Tariff Deal）。其次，《彭博》说墨西哥压根儿没答应增加农作物采购（Mexico Doesn't Back Up Trump's Twitter Claims of Big Farm Deal）
连不那么尖刻的《合众社》也只是说墨西哥许诺的微不足道，只够满足淳朴竞选的虚荣心（US-Mexico deal offers few new solutions, political victory）。如果有什么是常见的伎俩，就是谁都不知道他想的是什么，接受还是不接受，他自己的班子不知道，外人是根本不能知道。
另一个情形，就是淳朴自己想要什么，他自己也不知道，大家千方百计猜，属于徒劳。他本人绝对没能力，也不在乎，对方的让步是实质性的，还是形式的，无关紧要，《纽时》政坛记者Peter Baker总结如下（A Drama of Trump’s Own Making Ends With a Familiar Hero）：
Nine days in spring offered a case study in Mr. Trump’s approach to some of the most daunting issues confronting him and the nation: When the goal seems frustratingly out of reach through traditional means, threaten drastic action, set a deadline, demand concessions, cut a deal — real or imagined — avert the dire outcome and declare victory.
If nothing else, he forces attention on the issue at hand. Whether the approach yields sustainable results seem less certain. These are often dramas of his own making, with him naturally the hero. He stakes out maximalist positions and issues brutal ultimatums to compel action, arguing that extreme problems demand extreme tactics. At times, though, it can seem like little more than smoke and mirrors substituting for serious policymaking, a way of pretending to make progress without actually solving the underlying problem.
这跟我昨天引用外交老手哈斯（Richard Haass）的说法一模一样：
There is a pattern to the foreign policy of @realDonaldTrump. We have seen it w N Korea, NAFTA, and now China. He creates a sense of crisis, compromises, and both claims he accomplished more than he did and deserves credit for having defused the crisis that he largely created.
— Richard N. Haass (@RichardHaass) December 3, 2018
这是《华尔街日报》的说法（For Trump, Threats Become Part of Diplomatic Playbook）：
Critics see it another way: as unbecoming of a superpower and ultimately undermining America's standing if it is perceived as too quick to make threats, which then appear empty if they aren't followed through. Mr. Trump several times, for instance, has threatened to close the southern U.S. border to stem the flow of illegal migrants -- at one point saying, "I'm not playing games" -- but so far hasn't done so
这些都是活生生的例子，太好对付了：不搭理，挺住，不变应万变，让步没用，让一步对方进一步，就看谁能熬到底。对西方民主国家难点，中国就容易多了，而且中国普通百姓也够有气的，企业界难受点，但也会咬咬牙站队。
美墨关税谈判给中国的教训，就是中国目前的应对正确，没有更好的老师了。
中国的鸽派会说美国赢了，应该和美国妥协
中国的鹰派会说墨国赢了，新协议只不过是文字措辞修饰了一下旧文而已，中国再坚持下去必胜。
莫莫现在做了，左臂们为啥哭天抢地的，像死了谁一样。难道做了不是对美国好？哦，对了，还真是，死了以后选票的来源。