杂记●草稿

《一财》
今年地方债券规模预计膨胀近半 利率上行压力增大
今年地方政府发债有哪些不同
《彭博》It's Never Been This Hard for Chinese Debtors to Pay Interest
 

一个问题猜出你是否1%那族：你只吃有机吗？
At Tampa Bay farm-to-table restaurants, you’re being fed fiction

 

 

 

 

3600

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

亚特兰特联储分行工资实时数据：

 

 

纽约联储预测工具（参见）：

注

 

《彭博》The Party's Over
 

股市否极泰来？

我对（美国）股市的悲观态度，在股市为什么跌？一文里详述了，今天故事开升收降，不是好兆头，尽管原油接着上涨，连高盛都不信：
Even Goldman Says OPEC Doha Meeting Will Be A Dud: "Don't Expect A Bullish Surprise"
（高盛推荐具体股票不靠谱，高盛对经济的判断一般还中肯。）

 

瑞信的“恐惧参数”达到历史最高：

《有线电视CNN》老土大众“恐惧贪婪指标”却未见恐惧端倪：

瑞信的参数体现了大家忧虑重重，买保险（看跌期权，Put Option）的居多，不过从市场波动率（VIX）来看，毫无“恐惧”的迹象：

场波动率偏差比不高：

多空期权比值也不属极端：

熊多牛少？毫无迹象

股票投资占程度高，持现金的极低

注
注

注
注

《彭博》U.S. Braces for Worst Earnings Season Since 2009 Crisis: Chart

在悲观气氛充斥股市之际，大家纷纷出来说“到底了”，“否极泰来“。

《华尔街日报博文》
Why Earnings Season Might Be as Bad as Expected
Here’s a Sign Corporate Earnings Could Be Bottoming
《路透社》Weak U.S. earnings expectations set stage for stock gains
《华尔街日报市场观察MarketWatch》
Opinion: An earnings recession can actually help stocks rise
Why the worst earnings quarter since 2009 may be a good thing
《商业有线电视CNBC》Earnings decline may not mean bad news for stocks
美银美林内部客户也是极端悲观：BAML: Everyone is way too bearish

BofA Warns "Europe Looks Frightening" - Trades Like 2001, 2008
"This Is Where The Good News Ends" - JPM Says All Margin Subcomponents Are Rolling Over
Deutsche Bank Says World "Past The Point Of No Return" In The Default Cycle
What The Charts Say: 15 "Risks" To The Recent Rally
Market’s Hanging On Every Word! 04-08-16
 

对牛市来说这不是好消息：
Facebook, Inc.'s User Engagement Appears to Be Peaking    
 

美国小业主行会叫NFIB（National Federation of Small Business）信心3月还是不妙，有跌破经济萧条界线的意味：

3月零售环比下降0.3%：

删
删

 

衰退的巨人，还是（世界）经济的支柱？

今年三月《金融时报》有一部中国经济概论的专栏，起了个吓唬人的标题叫做“中国奇迹的尾声（The end of the Chinese miracle）”，描述了中国经济崛起的奇迹，在城乡大移民、城市化这一宏大的背景下以“廉价劳动力”为基础的经济发展模式走到了尽头，除了信贷泛滥，产能过剩的，市场全面通缩（deflation）外，中国经济还进入了经济学家们常说的“路易斯拐点”（Lewis Turning Point），就是说农村能提供的劳动力已经到了尽头，没法再城市化，给经济不停滞的发展提供动力。

据说中国企业甚至从越南进口劳工来解决短缺的困境。《金融时报》说以后印度人口年轻，有取代中国成为世界工厂的能力，不过短期内中国的困境对世界经济反而成为一个严重的威胁。

《经济学人杂志Growth and China》2013.01.31
China approaching the turning point

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

《国际货币基金组织论文》2013.01Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?
 

确实确实，中国问题多多，难处大，处境恶略，大有给世界经济“拖后腿”的意思，全世界除了美国能量大能自给之外，大家叫苦连天，都抱怨中国成了大家的负担。

然而事实确实如此吗？

《国际货币基金组织》刚刚发表了对世界经济最新的预测：

《国际货币基金组织世界经济展望2016.04》IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (WEO)：Too Slow for Too Long
《彭博》IMF Warns of Global Stagnation as It Cuts Growth Outlook Again

《彭博》对此给大家解释了一下：哀鸿遍地，不过唯一的骄傲是中国。
参见：IMF警告全球经济增长停滞：中国是唯一亮点 最不看好日本

• 下调美国和欧元区今年经济增速0.2个百分点至2.4%和1.5%
• 最不看好日本——腰斩日本经济增速预期至0.5%，认为日本经济明年将萎缩0.1%。
• 上调了中国今明两年经济增长预期各0.2%

《第一财经》IMF上调中国2016年经济增速至6.5% 下调全球
《路透社》一系列的报道：
IMF cuts global growth outlook again, warns of political risks
TIMF cuts global economic forecast, again
IMF says 'very real' Brexit risk could deal blow to world economy

China's economic fix a millstone for world trade-IMF
U.S. to push G20, IMF members on currency, infrastructure issues
国际货币基金组织首席经济学家Maurice Obstfeld的评论：Global Growth: Too Slow for Too Long
投资者对全局的判断也悲观：
《华尔街日报网文》BlackRock’s Larry Fink Strikes Pessimistic Tone on Global Economy in Letter
对日本尤甚：
The world's largest investor says negative rates are breeding a disaster for the economy

人口结构变化决定中国经济未来走势
 

《华邮》China is the only emerging market that matters

 

《第一财经》一季度经济温和复苏 总理强调就业稳金融稳

《华尔街见闻》发改委：中国一季度经济实现开门红是实事求是、有充分依据的

删
删
删
删
删
删
删
删
删
《观察者网》李克强2016春节团拜会讲话：通过改革消除制约发展的一切束缚

删
《第一财经》
一文看懂今年中央7.8万亿财政收入从哪来
中央财政预算8.5万亿 这笔钱该怎么花？
一般公共预算支出85885亿元，比去年增长6.3%
地方政府承担了许多公共服务职能，中央通过税收返还和转移支付形式，给地方政府58030亿元
余下的一般公共预算中，中央本级支出预算为27355亿元，中央预备费（即不安排具体支出）为500亿元
从功能分类来看，这27355亿元将主要花在国防（9544亿元）、债务付息（3299亿元）、科技（2706亿元）、公共安全（1668亿元）、教育（1408亿元）等十余个具体领域
金融支出（93.7%）、社会保障和就业支出（22.8%）、医疗卫生与计划生育支出（47.2%）、债务付息支出（15.1%）、一般公共服务支出（13.7%）
由工资福利支出（4279.74亿元）、商品和服务支出（3609.7亿元）、对个人和家庭的补助（2609.59亿元）和其他资本性支出（58.95亿元）四部分组成
《第一财经》中金：8张图看懂2万亿基建项目资金去哪了？










国务院通过“成渝城市群”发展规划
国务院总理李克强3月30日主持召开国务院常务会议，决定新设一批国家自主创新示范区，部署推进上海加快建设科技创新中心；新设河南郑洛新、山东半岛、辽宁沈大3个国家自主创新示范区；通过《成渝城市群发展规划》，强调要以强化重庆、成都辐射带动作用为基础，建设引领西部开发开放的城市群。（新华网）

删
删
删
删
删
删
删
删
删
删
删
删
删
删
资料：《凤凰财经专栏》从朱镕基到李克强：总理的难题

删

 

 

《金融时报》
China’s ‘migrant miracle’ nears an end as cheap labour dwindles
（中文版：当中国遭遇“刘易斯拐点”）Flow of rural labour that powered three-decade boom is petering out
May 4, 2015, Gabriel Wildau in Shanghai

China’s labour force is shrinking and the “migrant miracle” that powered its industrial rise is mostly exhausted, removing the factors that propelled the country’s meteoric development, according to leading economists.

The transformation will lead to slower growth, reduced investment and a loss of export competitiveness, they warn, increasing the urgency of implementing ambitious economic reforms aimed at finding new sources of expansion.

Today the Financial Times begins a series of articles on the end of the migrant miracle — the three decades of breakneck economic growth fuelled by the unprecedented migration of labour from the unproductive farm sector to work in factories and on construction sites.

Broad consensus has emerged that China has reached its “Lewis Turning Point” — the point at which the once-inexhaustible pool of surplus rural labour dries up and wages rise rapidly. Nobel-prize winning economist Arthur Lewis argued in the 1950s that a developing country with surplus agricultural labour could develop its industrial sector for years without wage inflation as it absorbed that surplus.

“Now we are at the so-called Lewis inflection point. I made this forecast in 2006, and today there is no need to change it,” said Ha Jiming, chief investment strategist for private wealth management at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong and formerly chief economist at China International Capital Corp, the country's first Sino-foreign joint venture investment bank.

“The working-age share of China’s population peaks this year at 72 per cent, then it will start to fall rapidly, even more rapidly than what we saw in Japan in the 1990s,” he added.

Cai Fang, vice-president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a think-tank that advises the government, estimates that China’s potential gross domestic product growth decreased from 9.8 per cent in 1995-2009 to 7.2 per cent in 2011-15 and 6.1 per cent from 2016-20.

A shrinking labour force is one of the main drivers. Since Deng Xiaoping launched market reforms in 1978, 278m migrant workers from rural villages have moved to work in the cities.

But reallocating labour from farm to factory — resulting in higher overall growth as workers’ productivity soars — is now mostly complete.

“From 2005 to 2010, the growth rate of migrant workers was 4 per cent. Last year it was only 1.3 per cent. Maybe this year it will contract,” said Mr Cai.

China faces the more difficult task of raising productivity within the urban sector through improved capital allocation, technology and management acumen.

The second trend is an ageing population and the effects of the one-child policy, which has started to influence the number of young workers entering the labour force. As in developed countries such as Germany and Japan, the ranks of the elderly are rising. Ma Jiantang, director of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, said the population aged 15 to 60 peaked in 2011.

“The excess rural surplus labour is nearly exhausted — China is reaching its Lewis Turning Point,” the World Bank said last year.

Economists debate the precise date of the turning point based on inconsistent data and contrasting theoretical models. Some say that due to varying regional labour market conditions, it is more precise to speak of a “turning period” rather than a single point. But the basic measure is not in doubt.

“The fact that we have now passed the Lewis Turning Point is 100 per cent,” said Ross Garnaut, an economist at Australian National University and co-editor of a collection of papers on China.

 

 

 

奥巴马采访

全国公共广播电台（National Public Radio，NPR）

全国广播公司(National Broadcasting Company，NBC)2014.09.07

福斯新聞电视台（FOX News）
全

 

 

征服全球的卡夫（Kraft）费城牌奶油奶酪（Cream Cheese）

原味型

 

半脂型

 

无脂型

 

泡泡（whipped）型

 

香料型

 

讷雪得（Neufchâtel）型

 

深受人们喜爱的奶酪蛋糕

大名鼎鼎的纽约奶酪蛋糕：
1929 - Arnold Reuben, owner of the legendary Turf Restaurant at 49th and Broadway in New York City, claimed that his family developed the first cream-cheese cake recipe. Other bakeries relied on cottage cheese. According to legend, he was served a cheese pie in a private home, and he fell in love with the dessert. Using his hostess’ recipe and a pie she made with ingredients he provided, he then began to develop his own recipe for the perfect cheesecake. Reuben soon began to serve his new recipe in his Turf Restaurant, and the cheesecake quickly became very popular with the people who frequented Reuben’s Broadway restaurant.
奶油奶酪乃主要材料

 

 

（民主党总统竞选人）闲得死（Bernie Sanders）有许多吸引选民的“革命性的”提议，其中之一是免费大学。从下面形象的的统计可以意识到大家为什么觉得这是个问题：

（点击放大）

华尔街日报（参见）的报道（要交钱才能看）：
More Than 40% of Student Borrowers Aren’t Making Payments

• $1.2 trillion student-loan
• 43% of the roughly 22 million Americans with federal student loans weren’t making payments as of Jan. 1

（美国）学生债总数目过1万2千亿，超过了信用卡债，人均35000美元(据此文，“That number jumps to $51,000 for a master’s degree, $71,000 for a Ph.D. and $207,000 for medical school”）。经济学家把学生债居高认作是美国经济的一大障碍，青年人不愿意、没能力成家（生孩子）购房，经济发展就少了个重要的推力。当然了，学生债只是美国社会的一个缩影，据盖勒普调查：
Americans Are Buried Under a Mountain of Debt

纽约联储分行的季度报告也是大家关注的资料来源：

学生债愈趋恶略：

下图为媒体广泛留意，都觉得婴儿潮一代（55岁以上）在过去十年全靠筑债苟存：

回到学生债的话题，这是按毕业年度债务的分布：

越来越多，《美国今日》有详细的报道，参见纽约时报。

 

《路透社》Millennials face debt - and denial
《彭博》Can You Use Student Loans to Go on Spring Break?
"To me, it's not the proper use, but taxpayers aren’t necessarily being ripped off by a small number of students who are mismanaging their money," Draeger said of students who use loans for vacations. "Federal loans and private education loans get repaid. I’m not saying it’s not a problem, but if we overreact to the problem, I’m not sure we create any real solutions. The whole idea of student aid is to get people who would otherwise not have attended into college. If we put too many barriers up, we squeeze out those at-risk, on-the-fringe students."

As a senior, Almon was given a loan check of $1,500. He took a third of it and planned a spring break vacation.
"When I got out of school, those first couple years, working and paying down those student loans...it was kind of painful," he said. "Even though I was making some sacrifices to pay that money back, I do not for one second regret that money I spent to go to Cancún."

《公共电视台晚间新闻》NYC community colleges invest in student support to boost grad rates

专栏评论
《华尔街日报》Bernie Sanders and the Soak-the-Rich Myth
《纽约时报》
《经济学人》
《全国公共电台NPR（Natiohnal Public Radio）》芝加哥大学经济学家评判
Economists On Candidates' Proposals: Mostly Bad
 

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/021716/how-student-loan-debt-shaping-2016-election.asp

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-17/washington-may-not-want-to-get-out-of-student-debt