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美国二月就业状况

(2016-03-07 07:30:20) 下一个

大家公认美国经济是世界上大国里跟印度是最好的。不过你要是仔细留意美国整体的经济数据就会觉得很含糊,不见经济萧条的影子,但很多方面远低于历史环境下相似的时代,如整体物价和工资就一直让人失望。

不过美国经济有一样是大家毫无异议的:就业。从与股市相关的报道大概可以了解到企业营业额利润一直马马虎虎,但是企业招人的趋向几年来一直没变,许多企业找不到人,空位很多。也许尽管大家一直叨叨,盼来盼去的中兴也等了一年又一年,还是没来,骨子里大家还是觉得前途一片光明,好日子,会来的。

美国二月增加过24万个职位,很强。

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/NFP%20Feb.jpg

失业率维持在4.9%,危机以来最低的。

 

下面是华尔街日报德银的图(图片一般都能点击放大),足以全面描述了当前的就业状况(很长,我在最后有些评论,你得有耐心)。

【1】数目

The last few months have been strong for job gains ...

The pace of job creation is slowing down as the economy approaches full employment ...

 

【2】剖析分类

... notably in lower-paying industries.
按收入

... but it's been an unequal recovery across racial lines, and members of Congress have tasked Fed Chair Janet Yellen with responding to this imbalance.

Millennials are crushing it.

 

【3】就业环境日趋紧俏

... as the supply of available workers shrinks.

Turnover at companies is soaring, probably reflecting worker confidence.

【4】广义失业率也大幅改善

The U-6 unemployment rate — a broader measure that includes workers who are working part-time but want full-time work — is falling ...

Weekly initial jobless claims have run under 300,000 for one year.

People are reentering the labor force ...

... as there's a stampede to come back.

【5】工资、收入

Wage growth has been so-so ...

... but everything small businesses are saying points to higher wages.

 

【注1】小业主反应

美国小业主行会叫NFIB(National Federation of Small Business),对美国就业至关重要,据它们的统计,个小企业工资上涨幅度跟全国平均相仿,也不低,而且压力大。总的大家对雇佣的计划还是乐观。然而,最近的调查(二月的结果)说是总的信心则是马马虎虎:

【注2】收入

总的收入不断提高,但二月幅度令人失望,尽管同比还是涨了,环比却跌了:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/hourly%20earnings.jpg

即使同比也呈现下跌趋势:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/weekly%20earnings.jpg

不过个别经济学家出来安慰大家,说这是统计误差所致,因为二月少了一天,下个月会会补会来的。

你要是不信,可以看看下面的统计:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/weekly%20earnings_1.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/jobs%20in%20feb.jpg

跟以前一样,绝大部分的职位都是低收入的,这是美国新经济的一个无可奈何的现实,难以逃避。

 

 

 

 

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