美欧的中东、乌克兰“策略”

法里德·扎卡利亚（Fareed Zakaria）在美国新闻电视站CNN主持每周一次的“全球大众论坛”（GPS-Global Public Square）。上个周末的节目自然说起了中东、乌克兰局势。这次节目讨论人之一，华盛顿邮报专栏作者阿普鲍（Anne Applebaum）讲到中东、乌克兰局势，说出了大众舆论不常听到的真话，既美欧现在实际上对两地既是束手无措，也三心二意，与口头上的空话完全是两码事儿。

中东
ANNE APPLEBAUM, COLUMNIST, THE WASHINGTON POST: Most people who have been watching it were either disappointed or somewhat bemused by what NATO did. Yes, there has been a creation of a coalition of the willing, but it's not really clear yet that there are European states that are willing to join it. Perhaps Britain, perhaps France.

You mentioned those images that have come out of the Middle East and how terrifying people find them and how much it reminds you of 9/11. The interesting thing here in London is that, you know, I don't remember ever seeing so much focus on dangerous images and the terrible videos and yet the kind of reaction we had in 9/11, which is that we must all stand together, we must support the United States, we must think what to do -- as common as a group.

I don't feel that at all this time. There's very much the sense that there's a conversation here about terrorism, domestic terrorism a little bit, a lot of it is about immigration, a lot of it is about the British Muslim problem. I don't feel a sense of common purpose at all.

APPLEBAUM: I think people don't feel that the United States has a strategy. They don't see what it is. They don't see where it's going. There isn't something that is clear they can join, that has a chance of being successful. Partly that's a critique of the United States and partly it's a sense of, you know, our own failures over the past few years. You know, we were unable to make a change in Iraq. We were unable to do anything for Libya.

Why do we think we'd be able to help Syria either? There's a real lack of confidence here. And it's partly to do with American leadership but it's partly European as well.

乌克兰
APPLEBAUM: Russia is winning in that as we saw in Ukraine's last decision to try and organize a cease-fire, Russia is winning in that Ukraine has had to agree to the presence of Russian armed separatists inside its country. The Ukrainians have -- were trying to win the war against them. They were trying to push them out of the country and re-establish the sovereignty of Ukraine. It's now become clear that will not be possible because the Russians are willing to support those separatists with real troops and they're willing to take real casualties.

That means the Ukrainians are faced with a new kind of situation which is what will the borders of their country be, how will their country be defined, what will be -- and will there be Russians simply in those two provinces, in the south of the country, how far will it go? In that sense Russia has won this conflict so far.

APPLEBAUM: What I would first of all like to see the United States do is really and truly reinforce NATO as it currently exists. Right now people in the Baltic states, in Poland and Romania, other parts of Eastern Europe are beginning to feel doubt about whether the NATO guarantee will be real.

As Brett mentioned, the Budapest Memorandum was violated. Nobody has paid the prize for that. It's clear there's no willingness to be involved in that part of the world, OK, we won't fight for Ukraine. Will we fight for Latvia? Will we fight for Lithuania? That's the most immediate question is, can that be done and how quickly.

NATO made some moves in that direction but I don't have the sense either from the rhetoric I heard or from anything that anybody who is there told me that there has been a real transformative moment that people really feel this is real and that there's a real challenge.

One of the things that Russia is doing right now is subtly and less subtly trying to undermine our sense of security, our sense that NATO is real, that its guarantees are real. And unless we show -- unless we show that immediately, then, yes, I think we're inviting further incursions not only to Kiev but beyond.

我把扎卡利亚的提问都省了，因为阿普鲍怎么读都一清二楚，有兴趣读读原文（电视记录）。

所以，别听政客们瞎嚷嚷，做戏的。

【后记】
伊拉克间谍弯弯儿球如何将美国带入伊拉克战争

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