再论美国伊拉克、叙利亚政策

现在奥巴马领导”正义之军“征伐大叙利亚地区伊斯兰组织（ISIS，或ISIL，或IS），对该组织在伊拉克、叙利亚的基地大规模轰炸，像是稳住了局面，但是胜算难言，不少人对此怀疑，此事再提。

此刻正值联合国召开年会，首脑政要纷纷云集纽约，给本国施政纲领提出点点，借机评点江山，也好出头露面、风光风光。奥巴马自然不会放过这次机会，做了长篇演讲，阐述美国如何站在正义一边，领导世界与邪恶做斗争。说风凉话的也不少，美国右倾舆论更加紧攻击。

这是美国狐狸台（FoxNews）对奥巴马联合国演讲的讽刺：

The Difference Between Tough Obama & Tough Bush UN Speech: Bush Actually MEANT What He Said!

不过，讽刺是讽刺，问题是像美国这样一向以自由世界领袖自居的国家，是怎样领导世界的呢？以前说过，“从布什到奥巴马，美国政府、精英压根儿就没有什么深谋远虑，基本是走一步算一步。你要是相信美国的长远战略决策，这儿是一点影子都见不到”，现在又是一次领略这一目光短浅、毫无章法的”领袖“的时候了。

下面是全球犹太新闻做的一个总结，非常见血：

For Obama at the U.N., what a difference a year makes
Uriel Heilman, September 24, 2014

VIOLENT EXTREMISM

2013: “The world is more stable than it was five years ago. But even a glance at today’s headlines indicates that dangers remain.”

“As recent debates within the United States over Syria clearly show, the danger for the world is not an America that is too eager to immerse itself in the affairs of other countries or to take on every problem in the region as its own. The danger for the world is that the United States, after a decade of war — rightly concerned about issues back home, aware of the hostility that our engagement in the region has engendered throughout the Muslim world — may disengage, creating a vacuum of leadership that no other nation is ready to fill. I believe such disengagement would be a mistake. I believe America must remain engaged for our own security. But I also believe the world is better for it.

“We will dismantle terrorist networks that threaten our people. Wherever possible, we will build the capacity of our partners, respect the sovereignty of nations, and work to address the root causes of terror. But when it’s necessary to defend the United States against terrorist attack, we will take direct action.”

ISIS got nary a mention.

Today: “There is a pervasive unease in our world — a sense that the very forces that have brought us together have created new dangers and made it difficult for any single nation to insulate itself from global forces.

“We have not confronted forcefully enough the intolerance, sectarianism, and hopelessness that feeds violent extremism in too many parts of the globe. As we look to the future, one issue risks a cycle of conflict that could derail … progress: and that is the cancer of violent extremism that has ravaged so many parts of the Muslim world.”

This year, ISIS occupied center stage.

 

IRAQ

2013: “Five years ago, nearly 180,000 Americans were serving in harm’s way, and the war in Iraq was the dominant issue in our relationship with the rest of the world. Today, all of our troops have left Iraq.”

Today: “Iraq has come perilously close to plunging back into the abyss.”

In pursuit of ISIS, America has resumed airstrikes in Iraq and expanded them to Syria. While Obama has vowed not to send U.S. troops back to combat in Iraq, there are some 1,600 U.S. forces in the region in advise-and-assist roles. Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said recently that it’s possible America will have to put boots on the ground if it is to defeat ISIS. Dempsey’s comments were quickly disavowed by the White House.

 SYRIA

2013:  “America and others have worked to bolster the moderate opposition, but extremist groups have still taken root to exploit the crisis. The notion that Syria can somehow return to a prewar status quo is a fantasy. It’s time for Russia and Iran to realize that insisting on Assad’s rule will lead directly to the outcome that they fear: an increasingly violent space for extremists to operate.”

But most of what he had to say about Syria — at 13 paragraphs, the single-largest section of the speech — was about the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons and the U.S.-led effort to destroy Assad’s chemical stockpiles. On the question of whether America would get involved in Syria’s civil war, Obama was clear: “I do not believe that military action — by those within Syria or by external powers — can achieve a lasting peace.”

Today: “Together with our partners, America is training and equipping the Syrian opposition to be a counterweight to the terrorists of ISIL and the brutality of the Assad regime. But the only lasting solution to Syria’s civil war is political — an inclusive political transition that responds to the legitimate aspirations of all Syrian citizens, regardless of ethnicity or creed.”

 

ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT

2013: Obama identified the Israel-Palestinian conflict as one of two issues that “in the near term, America’s diplomatic efforts will focus on.” The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not the cause of all the region’s problems, he said, but it has been “a major source of instability for far too long.”

He also talked about how the time was ripe for peace.

“Earlier this year, in Jerusalem, I was inspired by young Israelis who stood up for the belief that peace was necessary, just, and possible. And I believe there’s a growing recognition within Israel that the occupation of the West Bank is tearing at the democratic fabric of the Jewish state,” Obama said. “The time is now ripe for the entire international community to get behind the pursuit of peace. Already, Israeli and Palestinian leaders have demonstrated a willingness to take significant political risks.”

Today: There’s no way to avoid the gloominess of the Israeli-Palestinian picture.

U.S.-sponsored peace talks fell apart in April when the Palestinian Authority signed a unity government agreement with Hamas and Israel pulled out of the negotiations. Even beforehand, however, there was little evidence that the talks were making any significant progress.

This summer, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict turned deadly again when Hamas rocket fire resumed from Gaza and Israel invaded the coastal strip. Some 2,100 Palestinians and more than 70 Israelis were killed in the war.

 In Wednesday’s speech, Obama offered an implicit rebuke to Israelis’ reactions to the turmoil around them. Noting that the “violence engulfing the region today has made too many Israelis ready to abandon the hard work of peace,” Obama deviated from his prepared remarks and added, “That’s something Israelis should reflect on.”

But he made clear: “The situation in Iraq, Syria and Libya should cure anyone of the illusion that [the Israeli-Palestinian] conflict is the main source of problems in the region.”

IRAN

2013: A year ago, Obama identified Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons as one of the two issues that American diplomatic efforts would be focusing on in the near term and spent a large chunk of his U.N. speech talking about Iran.

Just two months later, the Obama administration achieved an interim success: A six-month deal was reached to ease some sanctions on Iran in exchange for slowing the growth of Iran’s nuclear capacities while the U.S. and other world powers negotiated with Iran on a final agreement.

Today: The interim agreement, which got a four-month extension that expires in October, is at risk of falling apart. Iran has violated several conditions, including failing to explain research it conducted on nuclear weapon detonators and continuing to work on even more powerful centrifuges to make nuclear fuel.

 

这里并没有讽刺奥巴马，但明眼人读读，多大的对比，至少可以见到美国和其他国家、团体、个人一样，大多是摸一步，走一步，压根儿谈不上什么领袖的眼光，奥巴马对此也公开承认：

CNN: Obama admits ISIS threat was misjudged as U.S. splits emerge

（所有新闻机构对此都有报道。)别以为奥巴马这是诚恳，一个月前，奥巴马在全国电视讲话里，压根儿就不认他过去一年有什么错。说直了，那时张口就说，眼睛都不眨一下的，别人，那就是恬不知耻了。他一个政客而已，不得不公开认错，可见糟糕到了何种地步。

即使目前美国的策略，也是治标不治本，用中国人的话，不打，只是面子都没地儿搁。完全不是要点，没有解决整个局势的根本问题。

【后记，2104年9月30日】
只是法里德·扎卡利亚（Fareed Zakaria，美国新闻电视站CNN每周一次的“全球大众论坛”（GPS-Global Public Square）主持）两天前刚刚说的（华邮评论）：

...

In Iraq, the central problem remains that the Sunnis do not feel represented in the Baghdad government. Obama keeps saying that there is a new government in Iraq, but the implication that it is inclusive is false. Sunnis continue to have ceremonial posts with little power. The army continues to be dominated by Shiites at the upper echelons. The result is visible on the ground. A recent article in the New York Times pointed out that “after six weeks of American airstrikes, the Iraqi government’s forces have scarcely budged the Sunni extremists of the Islamic State from their hold on more than a quarter of the country, in part because many critical Sunni tribes remain on the sidelines.”

...

In Syria, Washington’s strategy is incoherent. It seeks to destroy the Islamic State there and attack Jabhat al-Nusra and the Khorasan group but somehow not strengthen these groups’ principal rival, the Bashar al-Assad regime. This is impossible. As these terrorist groups lose ground, the army that will most easily take advantage will be that of the Syrian regime, not the disorganized and weak Free Syrian Army. If there is some way to make this strategy less contradictory, it would be to work toward some power-sharing deal in Syria that includes elements of the Assad government — such as generals and intelligence heads. But Washington has no contact or credibility with anyone in the Assad regime. The government that does is in Tehran.

原文主要建议美国与伊朗做交易，可以读读。不过这在美国是不可能的，这口气怎么也咽不下。况且，行不通：

Netanyahu: Iran greater threat than ISIL

犹太人不批准。