2017 (187)
2022 (3)
在通胀的初期，适度的通胀对股市具有很强的助涨作用。因为：
(1)由于温和的通胀刺激了经济增长，而经济的增长又推动了股市的上涨；
(2)由于通胀是流通中的货币增多，因此必然有一部分货币会流入股市，引起股市资金增加，需求扩大，从而推动了股市上涨；
(3)在物价全面上涨的情况下，上市公司的资产也相应增值，必然引起公司股票价格的上涨。
在通胀的高涨阶段，过度的通胀对股市具有较强的抑制作用。因为：
(1)高通胀造成企业高成本，从而使上市公司经营困难，公司股票下跌；
(2)高通胀必然引起宏观调控政策发生逆转，管理层不断推出治理通胀的从紧政策，从而制约了经济发展，造成股市的下跌；
(3)高通胀造成实际的负利率，会促使银行利率不断上调，造成企业资金紧张和股市资金困难，从而引起股市下跌。
Growth vs. Value Stock Performance and Inflation
Stocks are often broken down into subcategories of value and growth. Value stocks have strong current cash flows that will slow over time, while growth stocks have little or no cash flow today but are expected to gradually increase over time.15
Therefore, when valuing stocks using the discounted cash flow method, in times of rising interest rates, growth stocks are negatively impacted far more than value stocks.1617 Since interest rates are usually increased to combat high inflation, the corollary is that in times of high inflation, growth stocks will be more negatively impacted. This suggests a positive correlation between inflation and the return on value stocks and a negative one for growth stocks.
秒懂通货膨胀与通货紧缩的关系
通货膨胀与通货紧缩都是由社会总需求与社会总供给不平衡造成的，也就是流通中实际需要的货币量与发行量不平衡。无论通胀还是通缩都会使价格信号失真，影响正常的经济生活和社会经济秩序。
通货紧缩和通货膨胀，是世界经济活动中常见现象。现在，欧元区和日本就出现通货紧缩现象，津巴布韦和委内瑞拉就出现通货膨胀。
通货紧缩可以让你的钱更值钱。但通货紧缩的情况并不多见，也不会像通货膨胀那样严重。在欧元区，假设在2015年4月买一件商品需要1000欧元，到2016年4月买这件商品只需要998欧元。
通货膨胀可以让你的财富化为乌有。在津巴布韦，如果在1980年有10亿津元那是一笔巨资，当时可以兑换14.1亿美元;但这10亿津元到2009年1月1日只能兑换1000万亿分之一美元。
严格地说，纸币不算作是财富，因为纸币的购买力会不断发生变化，甚至会变成废纸，这是因为通货膨胀或通货紧缩的缘故。接着聊聊通货膨胀与通货紧缩的5点不同。
1通胀与通缩本质不同：
通货膨胀是指纸币的发行量超过流通中所需要的数量，从而引起纸币贬值、物价上涨的经济现象，其实质是社会总需求大于总供给;通货紧缩是与通货膨胀相反的一种经济现象，是指在经济相对萎缩时期，物价总水平较长时间内持续下降，货币不断升值的经济现象，其实质是社会总供给持续大于社会总需求。
2通胀与通缩表现不同：
通货膨胀最直接的表现是纸币贬值，物价上涨，购买力降低。通货紧缩往往伴随着生产下降，市场萎缩，企业利润率降低，生产投资减少，以及失业增加、收入下降，经济增长乏力等现象。主要表现为物价低迷，大多数商品和劳务价格下跌。
3通胀与通缩成因不同：
通货膨胀的成因主要是社会总需求大于社会总供给，货币的发行量超过了流通中实际需要的货币量。
通货紧缩的成因主要是社会总需求小于社会总供给，长期的产业结构不合理，形成买方市场及出口困难。
4通胀与通缩危害性不同：
通货膨胀直接使纸币贬值，如果居民的收入没有变化，生活水平就会下降，造成社会经济生活秩序混乱，不利于经济的发展。不过在一定时期内，适度的通货膨胀又可以刺激消费，扩大内需，推动经济发展。
通货紧缩导致物价下降，在一定程度上对居民生活有好处，但从长远看会严重影响投资者的信心和居民的消费心理，导致恶性的价格竞争，对经济的长远发展和人民的长远利益不利。
5通胀与通缩治理措施不同：
治理通货膨胀最根本的措施是发展生产，增加有效供给，同时要采取控制货币供应量，实行适度从紧的货币政策和量入为出的财政政策等措施。
治理通货紧缩要调整优化产业结构，综合运用投资、消费、出口等措施拉动经济增长，实行积极的财政政策、稳健的货币政策、正确的消费政策，坚持扩大内需的方针。
Interestingly, the rate of change in inflation does not impact the returns of value versus growth stocks as much as the absolute level. The thought is that investors may overshoot their future growth expectations and upwardly misprice growth stocks. In other words, investors fail to recognize when growth stocks become value stocks, and the downward impact on growth stocks is harsh.18
Income-Generating Stocks and Inflation
When inflation increases, purchasing power declines, and each dollar can buy fewer goods and services. For investors interested in income-generating stocks, or stocks that pay dividends, the impact of high inflation makes these stocks less attractive than during low inflation, since dividends tend to not keep up with inflation levels.19
In addition to lowering purchasing power, the taxation on dividends causes a double-negative effect.20 Despite not keeping up with inflation and taxation levels, dividend-yielding stocks do provide a partial hedge against inflation.
Similar to the way interest rates impact the price of bonds—when rates rise, bond prices fall—dividend-paying stocks are affected by inflation: When inflation is on the upswing, income stock prices generally decline. So owning dividend-paying stocks in times of increasing inflation usually means the stock prices will decrease. But investors looking to take positions in dividend-yielding stocks are allowed to buy them cheap when inflation is rising, providing attractive entry points.
The Bottom Line
Investors try to anticipate the factors that impact portfolio performance and make decisions based on their expectations. Inflation is one of those factors that affect a portfolio. In theory, stocks should provide some hedge against inflation, because a company's revenues and profits should grow at the same rate as inflation, after a period of adjustment. However, inflation's varying impact on stocks confuses the decision to trade positions already held or to take new positions. In the U.S. market, the historical proof is noisy, but it does show a correlation to high inflation and lower returns for the overall market in most periods.
When stocks are divided into growth and value categories, the evidence is clearer that value stocks perform better in high inflation periods, and growth stocks perform better during low inflation. One way investors can predict expected inflation is to analyze the commodity markets, although the tendency is to think that if commodity prices are rising, stocks should rise since companies “produce” commodities. However, high commodity prices often squeeze profits, which in turn reduces stock returns. Therefore, following the commodity market may provide insight into future inflation rates.21
