反省交易：回顾2010

反省交易：回顾2010

2010年是以交易为生以来收益较好的一年。日常帐户ROI+213%，累积帐户ROI+88%。差别的原因在于日常帐户用Margin，而累积帐户不用Margin。

回顾整个2010年，最大亮点在于正确判断出5月初的Fat Finger Flash Down是大洗盘，并且在发生的当时对判断就有较大的把握。随后在接近5月底时，勇于用Margin增仓。在6月下旬至7月初，指数连跌11交易日并击穿当时1140铁底时，坚持盘面判断，并坚信如此深幅的剧烈洗盘之后，将会更高。由于所有持仓都是强势股，指数的深度调整使得账面利润缩水并不大，也有利于保持了好的心态。并且在整个9月、整个10月和11月上旬，连续用新盈利产生的Margin Power增仓，最终使得Margin满仓（3X）。

需要提高的地方在于，进入12月后，由于判断指数将创新高，认为持仓的强势股会继续领涨。但事实证明，整个12月份的行情是大盘股行情，对于中小股，即使是一直持续强势的中小股，12月份并没有走出强于指数的行情。更由于有些持仓开始了深度调整，使得账面有些不必要的缩水。而实际上，在12月的第一周指数创新高时，中小股整体上没有跟进，就已有了警觉。但警觉是不够的，当时就应该调整仓位。

展望2011，货币供应的宽松将导致美股继续强势。

[毗古澹]

Thanks for quick response. to be honest, I am not convinced by your explanation.

what I think is that your 5/29 trade with margin should be closed on the 2nd or 3rd day of those 11 down days. this will enable you to get in again to trade the consolidation range or swing long in September when the consolidation is broken.

No one sure it is a trap or not, we have to wait for the market to confirm it as Livermore said in his book.

He also said:"I never buy on reactions or go short on rallies".

anyway, hope you would share more your actual trades and like to learn.

[FreeTrader]

For your questions below.

Chart-reading is just part of the Technical Analysis.

There was an on-the-fly post at the timing that the market was assumed terrible :

http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=201006&postID=31051

My reading was that it's a big bear trap because there was an 11 days' down-in-a-row while the down size was not much amid the fact that some down days started with high open.

These two newly written shall also be helpful:

http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=201103&postID=26437
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=201103&postID=26808

So, what will follow after a big bear trap? Must be a sizzling bull trend! So, adding long position is quite comfortably certain!

[ayan]

I have the same question. Looks like your entry is based on key support. When it's broken, should you exit to protect capital? I had bloody lesson for not setting up stop loss.

Thanks for great articles. I am often thrilled when reading. Truly fantastic experience. I hope to figure out something more executable based on your insightful information.

[毗古澹]

http://i54.tinypic.com/el1728.gif
请看图. 几点问题如下,望有闲回复.

5/25日对应标记23是一个支撑,当日一长下影收阳,以MARGIN增仓,足见胆识,但不知随后是否有短差交易行为?还是一直持有到标记31破位低点1011.37?

在1011.37,您是真的坚信吗? 止损位设在了哪里呢? 毕竟,以专业投机原理的趋势定义,转势几乎可以确立.

赞整个 9 10 11月增仓!

另外,唐能通系列,在下一直认为是垃圾,与陈江挺的书差太远,诧异楼主会推崇.

[whzdf]

谢谢！祝新年好！