In the movie “Parenthood” the old grandmother talks about going to the amusement park and deciding whether to ride the merry-go-round or the roller coaster. She said that the merry-go-round was too boring. All it does is go around and around. But, while the roller coaster is almost too scary to endure, it is still too exhilarating to resist. She says, “I always liked the roller coaster.”
A good friend of my NJ "daddy" named Curt Vail talked about life as a roller coaster. But, having a Ph.D. in aeronautical engineering, he called it a sine wave, which has the same shape as a simple roller coaster. He said that life has lots of peaks and valleys but, when we are in the valley, it is hard to realize that the peaks are coming again. The valley seems to extend as far as our eyes can see.
With the layoffs at G.M., Ford, and so many other companies in MI, the state I stayed for four years, it can certainly start to feel like we were in the valley. That is when we need most to realize that the peaks can and will come again, but only if we take action, not if we sit and complain.
For example, two years ago, Curt was diagnosed with cancer. It metastasized to his spine and he had to have spinal fusion surgery. That was his valley. However with physical therapy and a ton of courage, Curt went from being in a wheelchair to walking on crutches to walking with a cane. Unbelievably, he eventually ran in a 5 kilometer race. He made the peaks come back again through his sheer will, determination and discipline.
A great example of the vicissitudes of the sine wave is PepsiCo. In 1995, Fortune published a cover story entitled, “How Coke is Kicking Pepsi’s
However, by 2006, Pepsi’s profits have increased more than 100 since 2000. Over the past five years, its stock has increased 100%, while Coke’s has declined 30% The major reason seems to have been Pepsi’s broadening its business to include more of snack foods such as Fritos, Wavy Lays, Limon Cheetos, and three-D Doritos. These foods now bring in more revenue in
At the same time, Coke has gone downhill. They have had four CEO’s in the past nine years. Coke leaders have not been as aggressive in promoting other products such as water, and sports drinks, not to mention snack foods. Pepsi’s Aquafina water drink is the number one brand, while Coke’s Dasani is far behind. Pepsi’s Gatorade has 80%market share while Coke’s Powerade has 15%
If Curt Vail’s sine wave theory is correct, these two fierce competitors will experience many more ups and downs over the next few decades. Don’t be surprised if Coke emerges in 2016 as the market leader with Pepsi trailing.
I guess, the important thing to remember is that when you are experiencing the valley, be assured that the peaks are still there. They just may not be quite yet visible. As management guru Lou Tice once said, “Most people think that ‘Seeing is believing.’ But, it is believing that makes it so.” In other words, it is our faith in the future, which inspires us to take the actions necessary to create the next success.
