美国的这次衰退比29年的还严重

由Dr Krassimir Petrov在十一月发表的一篇文章中认为，美国的这次衰退应比29年的那次还严重。这大概是老美所不愿听的，但世界不是什么人愿意听才那样的。至于什么叫衰退得更严重，应有确切的定义。那涉及到经济学的许多术语，我们不去管它，反正是这个对许多人是坏消息的意思。

他引用的数据主要如下：

1，美国的房价在2000年前后就如脱缰的野马。这样的价位能长期维持吗？无论奥巴玛有什么样的本领，他都无法来挽救那个价格，他除非想制造更大的泡沫。

2，债务对GDP的比率如此高，这能继续维持吗？

3，看看银行的数据就知道了。

4，全球的泡沫。

5，用黄金来衡量，虽然这个指标有严重的缺陷，但也说明了部分实际。

他的结论是：这次将是更大的衰退。

Conclusion

Since August of 2007 we have witnessed the relentless escalation of the credit crisis: a steady constriction of credit markets, starting with subprime mortgage-backed securities, spreading to commercial paper, then to interbank credit, and then to CDOs, CLOs, jumbo mortgages, home equity lines of credit, LBOs and private equity markets, and then generally to the bond and securities markets.

While the media describes the problem as one of illiquidity and confidence, a more serious analysis indicates that boom-time credit has been employed unproductively and so losses must be incurred. In other words, scarce capital has been misallocated, poorly invested, and effectively wasted. No amount of monetary or fiscal policy can fix the errors of the past, just like no modern treatment can quickly restore to health a drug addict debilitated from a decade-long drug abuse.

Based on indicators like - (1) global real estate overvaluation, (2) indebtedness, (3) leverage, (4) outstanding derivatives, (5) global bubbles, and (6) the precariousness of the global monetary system, I would argue that the accumulated imbalances in the current period surpass significantly those preceding the Great Depression. I therefore conclude that the coming U.S. (and possibly) global depression will be of greater magnitude than the Great Depression of the 1930s. It likely suggests that we are entering a historic period that will likely be known as The Greater Depression .