Executive summary: As a member of the world first team carrying out onsite investigation of COVID-19 and a professor of University of Oxford Peter Hobby got expert knowledge on this newly emerged corona virus. He was aware of the risk that will lead to global pandemic. However he did not raise the alarm in time. Instead he kept silent and covered up. This episode uncovers how extensively he engaged in medical support for the virus test in China, why he fabricated news to defame hydroxychloroquine in global effort against COVID-19 and analyses why he insisted in conducting in the UK the trial of lopinavir/ritonavir that has failed in China. Clinical trial results from numerous countries presented in this episode prove hydroxychloroquine do has clinical benefit in saving COVID-19 patients’ lives. The video time is 7.5 minutes.
Spear vs. Shield: A long time in history there has been a number of things existing in pair and developing one after the other like spear and shield, missile and missile defense system, software virus and antivirus software, corona virus and vaccine. Each progress of one side leads to an upgrade on the other side. Every newly emerged corona virus has urged demanding more investment in medicine and vaccine. COVID-19 outbreak led to a global pandemic and the world's largest clinical trial in the UK. Bill Gates has been funding of large amount in vaccine development. This time the corona virus defeats vaccine and makes it not work at all.
Corona virus: The emerging of varieties of corona virus has never been stopped in the recent 15 years in China. Chinese medical researchers have done intensive studies on them. The articles they published overseas have documented every newly emerged corona virus. Every outbreak happened in winter during Chinese New Year just like it was scheduled. It posed a great threat to the public health and caused massive losses to the farmers' live stocks. China has ranked the No.1 nation where the corona virus emerged the most frequently in the world.
The earliest emerged and deadly corona virus was SARS in November 2002 then spread to some other countries leading to a large number of mortality. H3N1 emerged in 2006 causing swine influenza. It led to a major pig respiratory disease outbreak in pig farms. Studies have concluded H3N1 originated from the human's H1N1. It could transmit cross-species. H5N1 emerged in January 2009 causing avian influenza and human mortality. H1N1 and H1N2 emerged in December 2010 causing swine influenza. It originated from both human's and avian's combined. In 2013 people got infected by new avian virus that was the world first H7N9 in China. During 2013 - 2015 H1N3，H1N2...H1N9 emerged one after the other. H5N6 emerged in March 2014 causing avian influenza. During February 2013 to December 2017 H7N9 emerged repeatedly leading to 5 epidemics. In 2017 European CDC warned of the epidemic and 10-day incubation period. H7N4 emerged in December 2018 causing people infected and hospitalized. COVID-19 outbreak caused a global pandemic.
Although the corona viruses mentioned above are not all of them emerged in China they have suggested an evolutionary trend. The virus appeared to be more capable of cross-species transmission, more contagious to spread and more deadly to kill the host. Without lab's aid and screening how could be possible the virus mutated to be more deadly killing the host and can still survive and continue mutation? It is hard to believe these corona viruses are directly from the bat, raccoon or pangolin. The most possible and logic scenario is the COVID-19 is one of the candidates being picked up through repeated process of being screened after repeated mutation in live chicken, pig and even human after every test.
Chinese New Year: Like Christmas Chinese New Year is the most important holiday for Chinese family members' gathering and social gathering. The New Year follows Chinese Lunar calendar. The start date varies ever year between January and February according to western calendar. It is cold in most part of China during the holiday. Vast majority of people are on holiday during the New Year. It is a hectic season for shopping and travel. The large consumption during the holiday is food in particular poultry, pork and fish. Therefore the virus was often detected in live chicken. An article in 2016 has confirmed “H7N9 outbreak happened in Yangtze River Delta region and Pearl River Delta region of China”. Both regions are economically developed, densely populated, and well equipped in medical support. It can secure virus test will not run out of control.
As the facts shown in the following table the corona virus used to emerging for the coming Chinese New Year in the selected regions every year.
China state media has covered the two corona virus outbreaks. V1 presents the virus emerged in February 2013. It was identified as the world's first H7N9 virus. V2 presents CT image result of the lungs from a patient who infected by H7N9 in Zhejiang Province. This CT image of infected lungs is exactly the same as the current CT images of COVID-19 patients'. It was key factor of success saving life to control the occurrence of cytokine outbreaks. Clinically the treatment was the same as the current treatment with hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 patients.
V1, the world first H7N9 in China in Feb. 2013
V2, Lungs' CT image of a H7N9 infected patient
Virus research in China: There has never been an independent and efficiently enforced legal system in China. Scientific research has no constraint as long as it is permitted by CCP. It has happened for a scientist modifying DNA of embryos in an attempt to confer genetic resistance of HIV. The corruption in the society has driven everyone to pursue money, and everything turns to be money driven. The people have been brainwashed for generations. They have no belief except money. A large portion of people are lack of morality and disregard of human life. So do the most of Chinese scientists. CCP has allocated huge amount of budget in military. There is no doubt bio-weapon got abundant funding. It has driven many scientists to participate the research and test regardless law, morality and human's life. The bio weapon development can be done, and can be done only in China where the economy has been booming and ranking the No.2 in the world, the media is censored, no transparency in the government, no constraint by law, lack of morality and money driven society. Such a country has attracted those foreign scientists of the same sort like Peter Horby as well. After COVID-19 outbreak Xi Jinping, the CCP's General Secretary has urged speeding up promotion of the Bio-safety Law at the National Conference on February 14, 2020. As of now China has no Bio-safety Law.
NGO: In 1997 China enacted a legislative restriction for foreign NGO in China. NGOs were required to find a local government partner in order to report their activities to the local security agent. NIH and Bill Gate foundation as NGO have been running the operation in China for decades. The research unit Peter Horby setup looks like a NGO of University of Oxford in Vietnam. At that time Vietnam ideologically was a communist regime the same as China. Starting from 2014 Peter Horby engaged in virus medical research in China. He was funded by Wellcome Trust, Bill Gate Foundation and NIH. He has been conducting his research tasks and clinical trials by joining a team in African countries and Vietnam. The research environment in China created a lot of opportunities for him to deal with more newly emerged deadly corona viruses. He was not able to get such opportunity in well legislated countries.
Profile: Peter Horby received his Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery (MBBS, 6-year programme) in University College of London in 1992. He neither continued for his Master's Degree's studies nor secured a normal job. Instead he worked as self-employed writing research articles. His first article got published in 1993, followed by 2 in 2020, 2 in 2001, 6 in 2002, 5 in 2003, 4 in 2004 and 4 in 2005. He has ever worked in a number of countries including Papua New Guinea, Australia and Austria, and most of the time in Vietnam. In 2006 he got employed to setup University of Oxford Research Unit in Vietnam. In 2013, one year before he returned to University of Oxford he received his Ph.D. in London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM 3-4 years programme). It seems he left Vietnam and returned to London for his Ph.D.’s studies during 2000-2013. Currently he is a professor of University of Oxford. He setup a team of 8 people. This team is doing research projected funded by Wellcome Trust, UK Council of Medical Research and European Union. He is the chairman of New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NEVRTAG). Peter Horby was the one of four team members who were allowed by CCP to carry out the onsite investigation of COVID-19 just after the outbreak in Wuhan. The team published the world first article on this virus. He is leading the world largest clinical trial in more than 11500 COVID-19 patients in the UK. UK is ranking on the top by total number of confirmed cases in Europe.
Publications: Peter Horby research competence can be divided into three time periods. During 1993-2005 he worked as self-employed, 2006-2013 as junior researcher and administrative staff, 2014-current as professor.
Most of Peter Horby's publications in the recent 20 years can be found in two sites, 152 on ORCid and 100 on PubFact. Among the recent 100 articles there are 2 articles where Peter Horby's role as the first author, in 27 as the corresponding author, 6 of 27 there were only two authors in total. He has been hunting for opportunities joining the projects worldwide. Thus he has no his own on premise lab. He could not do trials in animal. His publications show he has been a team member and writing article. He has little connection to University of Oxford except his title. And the title makes him appear to be more convincing among the other authors in a team.
The following table lists 16 articles of Peter Horby's during 2014-2020 when he was in collaboration with Chinese counterparts in China. He has engaged extensively in Chinese medical projects. He was funded by NIH, Bill Gate Foundation and Wellcome Trust. He established connection with Chinese Medical researchers including those senior government officials like George F. Gao, Bin Cao, Chen Wang and Lanjuan Li. Personal contacts helped him with representing foreign pharmaceutical corporates to promote their medicines in China.
COVID-19 (2019-2020) - Click to expand/collapse
“No clinical benefit from use of hydroxychloroquine in hospitalised patients with COVID-19“, news without clinical trial details, Original
《A Trial of Lopinavir–Ritonavir in Adults Hospitalized with Severe Covid-19》, Peter Horby is 1 of 65 authors, This article has concluded the result shows no clinical benefit. Peter Horby was funded by Wellcome Trust, Bill Gate Foundation and UK Department of Health and Social Care, Original
Feb. 17 2020
《Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Intravenous Remdesivir in Adult Patients with Severe Pneumonia caused by COVID-19 virus Infection: study protocol for a Phase 3 Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Multicentre trial》, Registration No. NCT04257565, Peter Horby was the last one among six designing the trial, Original
《Long-term clinical prognosis of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) viruses in China after hospitalization》, Peter Horby was one of the two reviewing data and revising the article, Original
Jan. 24 2020
《A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern》, The first onsite (in Wuhan) research article on COVID-19 in the world. There were four authors Chen Wang (Vice President of Chinese Academy of Engineering, CAE), Perter Horby, Frederick Hayden and George F. Gao (Director-General of China CDC), Original
《Comparative Outcomes of Adults Hospitalized With Seasonal Influenza A or B Virus Infection: Application of the 7-Category Ordinal Scale》, Original
Dec. 11 2019
《Comparative Effectiveness of Combined Favipiravir and Oseltamivir Therapy Versus Oseltamivir Monotherapy in Critically Ill Patients With Influenza Virus Infection》, Original
Corona Virus (2014-2018) + Click to expand/collapse
《Prolonged Evolution of Virus-Specific Memory T Cell Immunity after Severe Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Virus Infection》, Peter Horby reviewed data and revised the draft. Original
《Assessment of Human-to-Human Transmissibility of Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus Across 5 Waves by Analyzing Clusters of Case Patients in Mainland China, 2013–2017》, Original
《Spectrum of Enterovirus Serotypes Causing Uncomplicated Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease and Enteroviral Diagnostic Yield of Different Clinical Samples》, Peter Horby interpreted data and the first writer among six revised the draft. Original
《Evolving epidemiology of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus across five epidemic waves in mainland China, 2013–17: an epidemiological study of laboratory-confirmed case series》, Peter Horby commented on and revised the draft. Original
《IFITM3, TLR3, and CD55 Gene SNPs and Cumulative Genetic Risks for Severe Outcomes in Chinese Patients With H7N9/H1N1pdm09 Influenza》, Peter Horby was one of five for the final draft. Original
《Global epidemiology of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans, 1997 – 2015: a systematic review》, Peter Horby was funded by Wellcome Trust and European Union. He was the one of eight reviewing and revising the draft. Original
《Differences in the Epidemiology of Human Cases of Avian Influenza A(H7N9) and A(H5N1) Viruses Infection》, This project was funded by NIAID NIH HHS，NIGMS NIH HHS and Wellcome Trust. Peter Horby was funded by Wellcome Trust and European Union. He was the first one among four writing the draft. Original
《A family cluster of three confirmed cases infected with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in Zhejiang Province of China》, The project was funded by NIH. Peter Horby was funded by Wellcome Trust and European Union. He was the second one among two writing the draft. Original
《Clinical characteristics of human infection with a novel avian-origin influenza A(H10N8) virus》, Original
《Comparison of Patients Hospitalized With Influenza A Subtypes H7N9, H5N1, and 2009 Pandemic H1N1》, NIH was one of the funding sources. Lanjuan Li, Chen Wang, Bin Cao were in the author's list. Peter Horby was funded by Wellcome Trust. Original
Every time when a new corona virus emerged there was a senior government official and
member of CASAD or CAE leading the medical support. It was Lanjuan Li in Zhejiang Province in 2014. It was Chen Wang and George F. Gao in 2019. It is crucial for them to maintain the authority and power if they get the opportunity to lead a state key project and publish well prepared articles with a helper like Peter Horby. The publications have revealed Peter Horby did the draft writing the most of the time. CCP is cautious for foreigners who might leak the secret to foreign media. Peter Horby must has passed CCP required background clearance investigation otherwise he would not be trusted and allowed to join the senior official team to carry out the onsite investigation of COVID-19. Once he was accepted by CCP that proves his ideology has complied with CCP's. In order to secure the virus tests under control medical countermeasures must be well prepared and more effective. It becomes more challenging for medical support as the virus appears to be more and more aggressive. China CDC's has been being engaging and leading the medical support. Most of the projects were funded by NIH. Peter Horby was funded by NIH as well. No doubt he has contributed his effort for fundraising for China CDC. In this sense NIH has been supporting CCP's virus test because virus test cannot be carried out without medical support. Peter Horby has engaged in the support for 5 years in China. By knowing the history of corona virus in China it is easier to figure out why Anthony Fauci, the head of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) expressed his fear of bioterrorism.
The second wave of virus outbreak has started in Beijing. It was covered on social media. Here are some of the video clips. 1，2，3，4，5，6，7，8，9，10. At Beijing International airport daily flights bound for London, New York, Los Angeles, Tel Ave, Doha, and Moscow are still running.
The animation in the following chart displays a comparison of the development in the total number of confirmed cases of countries on the daily basis from January 21 to the present. The chart tells the current pandemic is far away to the end.