UNG

这么多人玩火UNG,那一定要明白UNG是如何操作的.
		来源: TDYD 于 09-07-03 20:24:12

核心: 因为其期货价格问题,经济好转前,UNG没底,将类似FAS/FAZ随时间贬值.

UNG基金的操作原则是买FRONT MONTH(最近期当前月)期货合同并持有到结束,然后转买新的当前月合同.

目前及过去一年,期货合同从成为FRONT　MONTH到当最近期合同结束变成SPOT(即时HOUSTON现货价)时,大约每个月损失4-5%.这是很要命的!类似FAS/FAZ.就是说哪怕天然气市场现货价格不动,ＵＮＧ也要每个月赔５％．这种价格模式在经济没有明显好转之前是不会变的.所以买UNG就是赌经济会马上好转.但这目前是不可能的.UNG能掉到多少谁也不知道,但它理论上可以是可以一直跌下去的,哪怕其对应的天然气价格并没跌.因为买UNG并不等同于持有天然气!两码事.丢的钱你也可以理解成仓储费,价格不升,除去仓储可不就赔了.

天然气市场价格见下:
http://data.tradingcharts.com/futures/quotes/NG.html
Aug 09 3.615
Sep 09 3.757
Oct 09 3.996
Nov 09 4.692
Dec 09 5.392
Jan 10 5.707

"[UNG] lost 12% of its value during the summer of 2007 even though natural gas spot prices gained 1% over the same time period. Why the disparity? This fund mostly invests in near-month futures contracts. As each month draws to a close, the fund rolls over to the next month's contract, and so forth. When the prices of those out-month contracts exceed the price of the near-month contract (known as a state of "contango"), the fund loses money each time it rolls futures. That explains why this fund has oftentimes declined in value even as natural gas prices rose, as the natural gas futures market was in contango at that time."
Contango slowly rots away the value of your initial investment over time as one month rolls to the next. The winners in this situation are traders with access to both paper and physical commodities, not UNG holders