In2016,HistoryprofessorAllanLichtman,aforeverdemocrat,madehimselfunpopularinpredictingDonaldTrumptowintheWhiteHouse.HeoriginallyreworkedamathematicalmodelthatpredictsearthquakestopredictAmericanpolitics.Since1984,hepredictedsuccessfullyeverygeneralelections.TrumpsentLichtmanaloveletterafterthe2016predictionwenttrue.TheTrumpsupportershavetoutedProf.Lichtmanasthestrongestacademicsupporttothepresiden...[
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凸子尘报:PresidentTrump,我们祝您早日康复!
PresidentTrumptestedpositive.Soon,thenewsbecameīnflammāte.Herelet’sjointheMartiansandunitethesolarsysteminwishingthepresidentaswiftandsolidrecoveryfromthevirus.GodBlessesAmerica!
。。。
2020isayearofparadoxes
一切真理都曾是谣言
而很多谣言又像极了真理
地球发生了太多大事
而全世界人还都困在家里
。。。
总统转正之后,还会有...[
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凸子尘报:外行看辩论,内行看什么
The2020Trump-Bidendebate1.0hasstirredupthenewsandpeoplealot.Whilereportsandopinionshailinwithpersonaltakesonhowbothcandidatesperform,thisdebateislesswatchablethancommendable.Nowadays,ifdebatesstillindicatesanything,itisthroughthedonationtrackers.
。。。
2020isayearofparadoxes
一切真理都曾是谣言
而很多谣言又像极了真理
地球发生了太多大事
而全世界人...[
阅读全文]
这个周末的消息出来。
Morethan800000Americanvotershavecastedtheirevotes.Sametimein2016,earlyvotersonlycountedaround10000.Weshallseeahistoricalvoterturnoutin2020.ThismeansthatTrumphaslost.
为什么我这么早就敢说川普输了呢?
因为earlyvoters(EV)大多是民主党选民。
EV越多,说明这年选举中投民主党票的选民就越多。
2008年,奥巴马对战麦凯恩,当时的EV是2004年的近两倍。
而现在数据来看,今年的EV...[
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Hewilllose.
Isaidthisfouryearsagowhenhewaselected.
ButIwishhebeforgiven,cosAmericaneedstoheal.
Wearedifferentbutnotfoes.Hecantakeadvantageofourdifferences.
Butwecannotlethimmakingusfoes.
Votehimout,andforgivehim.
Forgivehimsowecanonlymoveforward.
GodblessesAmerica.
[
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看图吧!
ThemorelikelywetakeinTrumpius,themorelikelywesuffercoronavirus.
Thisisthecorrelationclearly.Iamnotsayingsuchisacausality.
Youmayhaveyourowndigest.
[
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还认为民调没用的的朋友看过来。民调不是没用,是很有用。但是我们要学会怎么用。左图,是我在9月6日时判断的民调的变化趋势。右图,是截至9月20日的两周的真实变动。想学会怎么提前3-5个月预知大选结果的,请去看我9月6日的博客内容吧。817凸子尘报:B.L.M.,Covid-19和川普败选[
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凸子尘报:Ginsburg,Ginsburg和Ginsburg
Yes,butNo.She'sbeenawayfromus.JusticeRuthBaderGinsburg.Apersonpassedaway.Apersonalitycontinuestoilluminateusfortheyearstocome.
。。。
2020isayearofparadoxes
一切真理都曾是谣言
而很多谣言又像极了真理
地球发生了太多大事
而全世界人还都困在家里
。。。
Ginsburg的一生:
今天CNN网站在长屏全黑版面上,以52帧照片,展现Ginsburg的一生...[
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凸子尘报:B.L.M.,Covid-19和2020WhenthesevenbulletsfromOfficerSheskey’sgunwerefiredatMr.Blake,IwasdrivingbyKenosha,WisconsinthroughI-94.Allhighwayexitsleadingtothecitywereblockedbypolicecars.“Itlooksabigdeal,”Isaidtomyself,thinkingofalltheunconventionalitieswe’vehadintheyearofrat.ItallstartedwithanabruptWeChatmessagefromChinabeforeChristmas.Therewasacoronavirus?SomethingIhap...[
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楹首为李公讳文亮德名拆字。“木孜”为“李文”二字拆,“孜”中有反文,暗喻官方尚未与公正名。“矢口”暗喻李公之行。“矢口高人”为“亮”字拆。[
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