狮山巡礼
投资杂谈
博文
(2025-10-07 04:17:38)
Ina2025study,MichaelMauboussinsharedtwocasestudies:NvidiaandFootLocker.Theformersuggestspainmayprecedeanextendedperiodofabnormalshareholderreturns;thelatterindicatesthepainmaypersist.Bothstockssuffereddrawdownsof90%,butNvidiaultimatelybecamethebest-performingSP500stockinthe20yearsendingin2024,whileFootLockerwasacquiredat30%ofitspeakprice.
Nvidia:ThePrecursortoTriumph
Nvidia,aleaderintheGPUan...[阅读全文]
(2025-10-07 03:00:04)
Thistranscript,featuringCitadelCEOKennethGriffin,offersasharpcommentaryoncurrentmarketexuberance,therisksofsuddencorrections,andacautiouslong-termoutlookontheAIboom,drawingparallelstothedot-comera.
MarketExuberanceandtheRiskofaSuddenCrash
Griffinopensbystatingthemarketisdeepinabullmarket,characterizedbysignificantFOMO(FearofMissingOut).Hewarnsagainstthenaivetendencytobelievethemarketwillsimp...[阅读全文]
(2025-10-07 02:16:42)
TeslastockpoppedafterthecompanyreleasedapairofteasersonXpromisinganannouncementonTuesday,Oct.7.
Onepostshowedtheheadlightsofavehiclewithswirlingsmoke.AnotherpostshowedafanorwheelwiththeTeslalogospinninginthecenter.OddsarethatTeslawillunveilitslower-pricedvehiclethatithasbeenpromisingforyears.
Teslacoulduseanewmodelrightnow.Vehiclesalesdeclinedgloballyin2024andareonpaceforanotherdec...[阅读全文]
(2025-10-07 02:13:03)
EarningsAreComing.WallStreetHopesStrongProfitsCanKeeptheMarketRallyGoing.
ItsalmosttimeforCorporateAmericatogetitsquarterlyreportcardfromWallStreetearningsseasonisrightaroundthecorner.Thereareasmatteringofmajorcompaniesreportingresultsforthethirdquarterthisweek,buttheearningsdelugereallykicksintheweekofOctober13. ThatswhenBigBanksandfinancialfirmsJPMorganChase JPM +0.21% ,Goldm...[阅读全文]
ItsalmosttimeforCorporateAmericatogetitsquarterlyreportcardfromWallStreetearningsseasonisrightaroundthecorner.Thereareasmatteringofmajorcompaniesreportingresultsforthethirdquarterthisweek,buttheearningsdelugereallykicksintheweekofOctober13. ThatswhenBigBanksandfinancialfirmsJPMorganChase JPM +0.21% ,Goldm...[阅读全文]
(2025-10-07 02:09:02)
TheTechnologySelectSectorSPDRETFsvaluationincreasedfrom21timesto28timesnextyearsearningsestimatessincelate2022. Nvidiasmarketvaluereached$4.5trillion,whileOpenAIsrecentfinancingroundvalueditat$500billion. TheNasdaq100indextradesat28times2026earningsestimates,comparedwith47timesinFebruary2000.
Thefunpartsaboutblowingabubbleareseeinghowbigitcangetandhowlongittakestopop.Thesameappearst...[阅读全文]
(2025-10-06 13:33:46)
ElonMusksTeslapostedapairofsocialmediavideosovertheweekendthatteaseanunspecifiedannouncementforTuesday.
TeslasmainaccountonX,theMusk-ownedsocialmediaplatform,postedavideoearlySundaymorningofawheelorfanshowingTeslaslogostartingtospinbeforeaccelerating.
Thevideothengoestoblackwiththedate10/7displayed,suggestinganannouncementofsomesortonOct.7.
TeslapostedasecondvideolateronSundaythatshowedac...[阅读全文]
(2025-10-06 12:26:08)
虽然熊市比牛市总体上要短但如何应对熊市才是决定一个投资者是否成功的关键.
我一直认为timeinthemarketismoreimportantthantimingthemarket,opportunitycosttoohigh.这也意味着我从不择时也就不可能逃过熊市，那么我又是如何应对的呢？
1.家里一定要留足emergencyfund，一旦面临熊市不会因为急用钱而去卖已经跌得很多的股票.
2.不论牛市还是熊市买卖一个股票的决定都是基于同样的逻辑：[阅读全文]
(2025-10-06 02:25:26)
Teslateaservideosparksspeculationoflong-awaitedRoadsterormassmarketmodel
KEYPOINTS
TeslapostedateaservideoonXsparkingspeculationthatthecompanycouldfinallybeabouttolaunchthenext-generationRoadsteroramassmarketmodel.
Thevideoendswiththenumbers10/7,indicatingTuesdaysdate.
Muskteasedthenext-generationRoadsterconceptbackataneventinNovember2017,andinJune2018inaseriesoftweets.
Tes...[阅读全文]
(2025-10-06 01:20:43)
特斯拉（NASDAQ:TSLA）周四公布了第三季度的交付数据，成绩确实不错，超出了市场预期。不过这背后很可能是透支效应造成的美国政府的7500美元购车税收抵免在9月底到期，很多消费者赶在优惠截止前下单，把原本该在四季度的销量提前到三季度完成。因此，四季度的表现大概率会明显走弱。
虽然三季度亮眼的交付数据会让特斯拉当季的利润和现金流看起来更好，但整体来看[阅读全文]
(2025-10-06 01:17:07)
媒体报道，苹果公司暂停了原本计划中的VisionPro头戴设备改版计划，转而将资源投入到一项更紧迫的任务上：开发能与Meta平台公司竞争的智能眼镜。 苹果原本正筹备一款更便宜、更轻盈的头戴设备版本，内部代号为N100，预计2027年推出。但知情人士对媒体透露，苹果上周在内部宣布，将从VisionPro项目中调派人力，加快智能眼镜的开发进度。 目前，智能眼镜已成为科技公司[阅读全文]
