lionhill - 博客 | 文学城

(2025-07-31 02:48:22)

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(2025-07-31 01:46:36)

ItsearningsseasonandtheMagnificent7arentallequallymagnificentanymore. Thebiggestfundmanagersintheworldarereshufflingtheirconvictionbets. Weexaminedglobalfundownershiptrends(20152025)acrosstheMagnificent7,coveringpassiveandactivemutualfundsandETFs,andhereswhatstoodout: 1.Microsoftistheonlymembertoconsistentlyhold20%+oftotalownershipinglobalequityportfoliosforafulldecade. 2.Nvid...[阅读全文]

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Why The Next Fed Chair Will Launch Yield Curve Control

(2025-07-31 00:41:49)

InatestamentjusthowimportanttoTrumpitisforthemarkettokeepgoingup-TrumpisonlythefourthPresidenttovisitFederalReserve(FDRwasthefirstin1937toattendtheopeningoftheFedbuilding).Whichistobeexpected:afterallTrumphasgivenupallhopeofcuttinggovernmentspending(goodbyeDOGE)soinsteadheispushingtheUSeconomyandmarketintoaterminalblowofftopinhopesofgrowingtheUSoutofthe$37trillionindebtitcurrentlyhas.Asforthes...[阅读全文]

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分散投资和相对估值的重要性，分析我上月买的3个leaps赢亏

(2025-07-30 09:42:34)

6月26日同一天买了3个leaps,NVDA,AVGO和NFLX,结果炯异. NVDA和AVGO都涨了60%以上，NFLX跌了65%. ?教训：NFLX今年上半年已经涨了很多，相对价值在这3个里最高即使基本面没有变化，继续上涨的动能明显比NVDA和AVGO小，在这种情况下买进leap不是明智选择，虽然年底前还可能往上走，但最后这个leap能不赔钱就算好的而另2个很大可能翻倍. ?这个例子也再次说明分散投资的重要性，分散[阅读全文]

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这些年对“价值”的理解有很多变化！“安全边际之父”赛思·卡拉曼最新对话：最糟糕的日子能做到这三点，会是一种竞争优势

(2025-07-30 02:27:12)

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3IuywAsRyN20aOhkVqLGvQ 1、很多人以为，他们请投资经理，是为了让自己赚更多的钱。但其实更真实的情况是：他们真正需要的，是有人帮他们避免犯错，甚至在关键时刻，帮他们克服自己的本能冲动。 2、长期投资想做好，唯一的路径是与众不同；而一家企业要走向失败，最常见的原因，反而是过于不同。但说到底，想要战胜市场，终究还是得不一样。 [阅读全文]

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美股市值前20名公司，Palantir挤进前20名

(2025-07-30 00:59:50)

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Margin Debt at All Time High. Time to Panic? Not So fast

(2025-07-29 16:08:18)

Forthefirsttimeever,investormargindebthassurgedpast$1trillion,markingastunningreversalafterthreestraightmonthlydeclines(Feb-Apr). ? Thereboundhasbeenexplosive: ? May:+8.3%($920B) June:+9.4%($1.008T)
? Thisisn’tjustanumber-it’sasignal.Historically,extrememargindebtpeakscoincidewithmarketeuphoria…andeventualreckoning. ? KeyTakeaways: ? FOMOisback-investorsare...[阅读全文]

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Bull markets don't die of old age. The Fed Kills them

(2025-07-29 06:18:25)

Thatsnothyperbole.Itsmarkethistory. Youcanseeitclearlyinthechartbelow:everymajorbullmarketofthelastseveraldecadesendedonlyaftertheFedhikedratesaggressively. Notbecausevaluationsgottoohigh.
Notbecausetherallygottooold.
Becausepolicyturnedevenmorerestrictive. Thatswhytodaysenvironmentissotricky. Yes,signsoffrothareflashing.Retaildarlingsandunprofitabletecharesoaring.Riskappet...[阅读全文]

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从好市多（Costco）投资案例看游牧人投资（Nomad）的进化

(2025-07-29 03:07:26)

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ipg3q5VQOfU2GUpYGTF2Ig 与巴菲特，芒格，彼得林奇，达里奥，霍华德马克思等星光闪耀的投资者相比，游牧人投资（NomadInvestment）的NickSleep和他的搭档QaisZakaria在投资界算的上神秘的人物。他们在2001年成立游牧人投资。在之后的13年间（2001年至2014年）获得921%的惊人投资回报，年化收益20.8%（费前）。能够在此期间获得如此回报并不容易。游牧人基金的起[阅读全文]

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Nvidia orders 30万 H20 chips from TSMC due to robust China

(2025-07-29 02:44:39)

Summary Ordersrepresentswitchfromplantojustdrawfromstockpile,sourcesays Newordersaddtoinventoryof600,00-700,000H20s,sourcessay TrumpadministrationreversedanAprilbanonH20salesthismonth U.S.CommerceDepartmenthasyettoapproveexportlicenses,sourcessay Nvidia(NVDA.O)placedordersfor300,000H20chipsetswithcontractmanufacturerTSMC(2330.TW)lastweek,twosourcessaid,withoneofthemaddingthatstrongC...[阅读全文]

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