njrookie's random thoughts

A collection of my posts on investment, trading, and life...
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博文
(2015-08-27 13:43:03)

SofarthesharpselloffandtheferociousreboundhavelotsofsimilaritiestolastOct.Wehavealreadypulledbackandretraced1/2ofthelosses.Ilessenedofflasttimearoundthislocation,whichwasearlyinretrospect,asmarketgrindedupforanother2-3weeksafterwards. Iwillstillstartreducinglongshere.NovtendstobestrongermonthheadingintoThanksgivingsbacklastOct.WearegoingintomoretreacheroustimeheadingtoHolloweens.The"ToRais...[阅读全文]
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(2015-05-28 07:08:29)
美女就像熬破神 Sufferstremendoustimedecayienegativetheta,andM16soldthemforincome...
Rentyouroptionsandstocks.Don'tmarrythem.
Shorttheoptionforthelongrunandlongtheoptionsforashortrun.
Justmy2c [阅读全文]
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AminorconcernaboutGreececanwipeouttwoweeksofgrindinggains.Donotbegreedy.Takeyourprofitsandwaitforlowerentry.Ofcourseifyouareadaytrader,youcanridetheintradaygrindingdown-trend.Formostothers,justtakesmallprofitsandwaitforpullback.
blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/67448/201505/16792.html
Justmy2c.
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Theequitymarketismovinginverynarrowrangethesedaysandwehavenotseen5%+ineitherdirectionforawhile.Itisaresultofrichmarketvaluationandmonetarypolicies.Iamgoingtoputonmy"two-hand"economisthathere.
Ononehandthepricingisveryrich/expensiveforbothequitiesandbonds-iePEmultiplesareveryhighandyield/interestratesareverylowglobally.
OntheotherhandFed/ECB/BoJhaveinplacelowinterestratepolicy...[阅读全文]
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Manyfolksherehaveaskedthequestionwhichcollateralassettheyshouldusetosecuremortgageloans,theirprimaryhometheirinvestmenthome?
ThefactfinanciallysophisticatedinvestorsonTZLCforumareaskingthisquestionpuzzlesme.Separatingfundsfinancedfrominvestmentpropertyvs.owneroccupiedhomeislargelymental:
1.adollarisadollar.moneyisfungible.itdoesnotknowwhereitcomesfrom.
2.alwaysborrowfromthelowestcostof...[阅读全文]
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Themental/psychologicalpressureistotallydifferent.Wearetalkingaboutsomeonewith[阅读全文]
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TherearelotsofmisinformationontheinternetaboutleveragedandinverseETFs.Mostofthemnegativeafterinvestorsobservedthefactthattheleveragedandinversefundstypicallyunderperformxtimestheunderlyingindex(xistheleverageratiothatcanbe-3,-2,-1,2,or3)afteraperiodoftime. Afewexampleshere: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1864191-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-decay-of-leveraged-etfs https://www.tr...[阅读全文]
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IhavebeenreadingalotforOILthesedays.Hereisa2-montholdarticlethatclarifyingthingsaboutthethreedifferentmeasuresofbreakevencostsbycountryandmethodsofextraction:
1.cashbreak-evenprice,iethecostofextractingoiloffthegroundafterwellhasalreadybeendrilled;
2.accountingbreak-evenprice,iethepricenecessaryforanoildrillingprojecttobeprofitable;
3.fiscalbreakeven,iethepricenecessaryforagovernmentto...[阅读全文]
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Istartedworkingaround2002andstartedinvestingwithalmostallstocksintheearlieryears. 1.earliercontributionhasalowercap.Irecall$12Kformyfirstyearfor401a. 2.started...[阅读全文]
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Wanttoshareanarticleaswellassomeofmypreviousthoughtsonhowoilmarketwillplayout.Thefollowingarticleislargelyconsistentwithmythought,althoughIdisgreewiththeconclusion.thequestionishowtotradeit. *********************************************************
Atthecurrentoutputlevel,Saudifiscalspendingneeds>$90oiltobreakeven.Eachdayoilis<$90,Saudiisburningdollarreserve.yetthecostis[阅读全文]
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