博文
Climbing the wall of worries
(2008-02-19 19:55:34)
Tradingisadynamicanddelicatedgame,ifyouareoutofitjustforafewdays,youcangetdis-orientedrealquickly.Today'smarketisnotthesamemarketofyesterday.andthatisexactlywhatIfelttodayafterdistrictionfrommyworkforthelastfewdays.So,let'sgetacquiantedagain.
Themarket,itseemstome,isindecisiveonbothsidesforthetimebeing.Itcannotmakemindaswhethertheworriesaboutthecreditmarkethasbeenfullydiscountedorthemorethan15...[阅读全文]
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Tough Love for the market
(2008-02-14 19:56:13)
Ifyoureadcbsmarketwatchtoday,youwillfindalotofexplainationsaswhymarketlostmorethan1%today.ItistheBernanketoblame,or,afterthreeupdays,themarketissuspectabletotheprofittaking.Allmakessense,andallprobablyhascontributed,tosomedegree,thedeclineofthemarket.Butthemostimportantreason,IMHO,isthetechnicaltradesbysomebigtraders.
Themajormarketindexestouched20dayMAyesterday.itisacriticalpointifthemarketwa...[阅读全文]
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Tipping to the high ?
(2008-02-14 06:21:57)
Yesterday'sriseshowedthathowlittleittooktomoveamarket.Abetterretailsaleandastimulusplanmakethemarkettogoup3daysinarow,afeatwehavenotseenformorethan2monthes.Maybethereisasellerexhustionormaybethereisa"love"intheair:)
Ifyouignorewhatgoesaroundandjustfocusonthechart,themarketiswithinadownwardchannel,anditmovesuptotheupperpartofthechannel.Lasttime,themarketwentsouthwhenitreachedthesamesituation(la...[阅读全文]
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Would truth market please stand up
(2008-02-12 20:48:08)
Aftertwodaysrising,weareyetagaininthisprecariousposition,atthehighoftheday,bothDOWandSP500hastouchedtheir20dayMArespectively,itbackedoffquickly,andaseemingstrongrallyfizzedbytheend,NASDAQevenreversetobedown.
Therearetimesthatanuplifingmarketbegetmorequestions,andtodaysisoneofthem.Isthisabeartrap?nobodyreallyknows,butonethingseemsforsurethatthemarketstilllacktheconvictionandthejitterytradersabo...[阅读全文]
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Bull\'s tiptoe
(2008-02-11 20:35:42)
Mondayhasalwaysbeenaninterestingday.Aftertwoday'sofover-thinking,theemotionofremorse/fear/optimitismsomehowisamplified,resultinginmorevolatiletrading.Idonothavestatisticstobackitup,however,therearealotofanecdoteenvidencetosupportit.
ThegoodnewsisthatthemarkethasovercamesomedamagingnewsfromAIGandendeduphigher.Thebadnewsisthatthevolumeissothinthatitishardlyatrendinthemaking.
Technicallyspeak...[阅读全文]
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An intriguing Week
(2008-02-10 14:32:33)
UporDown,thatisthequestion,otherthanlifeordeath,itisprobablythemostimportantquestionatraderneedtoaskeveryday.
Itwouldbeeasiertotellifthethemarketisinanextremecondition,orthemarketisupagainstitssupport/resistanceline.Weknowthemarketisintouble,buthasthetroublebeenpricedinyet?oristheremoretocome?IfweputarangearoundDJIA,youwillseeitsitsrightinthemiddleofthatrange(12950--13450).theRSIisaround39,iti...[阅读全文]
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Back from the bear dump
(2008-02-07 20:26:22)
Whatwasthereasonforthechangeoftheheart(rebound)ofthemarket?Itwasdownsharplybeforetheopenning,butendeduphigher.Thereisnoparticularmarketmovingnews,andtheforcastfromcscoactuallyisverybearish..so,whathappened?
ItwasNASDAQ,thenasdaqwasdownmorethan20%fromitshigh,thusenteringtheterritoryofbearmarket.BacktoJanuary,whenallmajorindexeswereonthevergeofenteringthebearmarket,thatthemarketbegintorecovery.a...[阅读全文]
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Lack of Confidence.
(2008-02-06 20:15:57)
Itissaidthattoday'sdownturnwasbecauseahawkishspeechfromaFEDofficer,thus,itdamppedthehopeoffurtherratecut.Yet,Ifyouhavefollowedmarketfromthebeginning,youcanseethatthemarketwasontheshakygroundfromthebeginning.by9:00a.m.centraltime,themarketactuallydippedintonegativeterritory.So,thevolatilitywasexpected,theFEDspeechonlyexcebratedanalreadyworsensituation.
Itisaconfidenceissuebythistime,manymarketo...[阅读全文]
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action 02-05-2008
(2008-02-05 20:51:24)

Action:shortfmcn
source:IBD100deletion
market:longtermdowntrend,andbigdroptoday.
technical:fmcnisatthevergeofbrokendown.
results:positive
basic:themarketdropwithismservicereport,thefmcnwasatthevergeofbreakdownbutshowedalittlestrength,weshortbasedon:
marketisdownandfmcncannothold
IBD100deletionwillhaveimpactonthestockforsure.
lesson.attoday'senvirnoment,weshouldcashi...[阅读全文]
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Setback for the bulls
(2008-02-05 20:41:42)
IthasbeenanuphillbattlefortheBullforquitesometime,yet,realityprovedthatwearestilltoooptimistics,wethoughtthe"low"hasbeenreached,ifwecannotmakeneartermhighs,atleast,wecanholdatthecurrentlevel.andboy,areweinforasurprise!Ifpeoplewerestillindisaggrementyesterdayaboutwhetherwewillgetarecession,today,itisclearthatwewillhaveatleastonequarterofnegativegrowth,andforsure,therewillbemoreconvertstotherecessio...[阅读全文]
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