Tipping to the high ?

Yesterday's rise showed that how little it took to move a market. A better retail sale and a stimulus plan make the market to go up 3 days in a row, a feat we have not seen for more than 2 monthes.   Maybe there is a seller exhustion  or maybe there is a "love" in the air :)

If you ignore what goes around and just focus on the chart, the market is within a downward channel, and it moves up to the upper part of the channel.    Last time, the market went south when it reached the same situation (last week).   Let's see if it can hold at this level and even break this time. 

Today's Bernanke speach certainly will draw a lot of attention since in the past several monthes, FED action has caused large market movements.  If he promise more easing (or his worries about economy), that will help the market at least for today

If our hypothsis is that the market is in a rebound mood, then, we may want to position our self to the stocks that break out from their trend lately.  For example, AMAT, it has been rebounding with other tech names this week, but yesterday, it break out with huge volumn.   OTEX is another example of the same nature, it holds really well during the market tumoil, and it breaks out two days ago. 

But be vigilent, we are in a tipping point, the market could go either way, It is not a bad idea to prepare if the rebound does not pan out.   To me, I still see, from technically point of view, many chinese stocks as vulnerable (sorry, my fellow country man :),  I am just trading stock and I love my country as much as you do :) ), names like FMCN, CTRP etc.  If the market go sour again, maybe we can enter into the other end of the trade.

In the spirit of the day, let's hope there will be more "love" in the market today