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Lack of Confidence.

(2008-02-06 20:15:57) 下一个
It is said that today's downturn was because a hawkish speech from a FED officer,  thus, it dampped the hope of further rate cut.   Yet, If you have followed market from the beginning, you can see that the market was on the shaky ground from the beginning.   by 9:00 a. m. central time, the market actually dipped into negative territory.   So, the volatility was expected, the FED speech only excebrated an already worsen situation.

It is a confidence issue by this time, many market obsverers have already throw in the towl, any rally is become an opportunity to unload those unfavored shares by the big MM.  So, instead of buying on the dip, it is  the time to sell into the rally.  

Other than some hard assets like agriculture, gold etc, it is just too risky to put in the "long" position.   The odds of market going down outweights the market going up. Those who has bought into the dip hoping a quick rebound  probably will be disappointed unless of course you are a "buy and hold" type of investors.

There are a few things I am monitoring to decide a "reverse" or a "dead cat bounce" point.
   1.  DJIA around 12000 level
    2. RSI for DJIA dip under 30 (right now 39 ).
    3  VIX over 31  (right now 29 ).

So, we may not far away from that nadir point. and with current "Fear fact",  we may reach that point faster than we realize. 

good luck





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