大山随笔
随想随记
博文
(2020-07-27 15:42:27)
去年六月曾预测“走上中国民粹的另一个极端，正好会迎合美鹰派的“脱钩”（decoupling）算计，最终结果难料。”有利的策略是“（1）内善其事，（2）广结友邦，（3）化敌为友。”三者中至少要做好俩个才会有胜算。（参见2019-6-4的评论：https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/67092/201905/28638.html）这一年下来，决策者近期似采纳极左路线，与这三策背道而驰，让大好形[阅读全文]
(2020-07-17 13:39:32)
<Bloomberg>NextChina:TitfortatJuly16,2020ItwasadizzyingweekfortheU.S.-Chinarelationship.OnMonday,BeijingimposedsanctionsonfourAmericanlawmakers,includingSenatorsMarcoRubioandTedCruz.ThatwasinretaliationforsanctionsWashingtonleviedtheweekbeforeagainstChineseofficialslinkedtothedetentionofethnicminoritiesinXinjiang.Thetit-for-tatacceleratedfromthere.TheU.S.denouncedChina’sclaimsintheSout...[阅读全文]
(2020-05-28 14:19:20)
5stepstocreateanestateplan
Seewaystohelpyousaveontaxesandprotectyourassetsandprivacy.
FidelityViewpoints–05/18/202010MinRead Keytakeaways
Considersettingupanestateplan,especiallyifyouwanttominimizeprobatecosts,protectyourprivacy,andfindwaystosaveontaxes.
Anestateplanhelpsyoucontrolthedispositionofyourassetsuponyourpassing,ensuringthatassetsflowtoyourheirsaccordingtoyourwis...[阅读全文]
Seewaystohelpyousaveontaxesandprotectyourassetsandprivacy.
FidelityViewpoints–05/18/202010MinRead Keytakeaways
Considersettingupanestateplan,especiallyifyouwanttominimizeprobatecosts,protectyourprivacy,andfindwaystosaveontaxes.
Anestateplanhelpsyoucontrolthedispositionofyourassetsuponyourpassing,ensuringthatassetsflowtoyourheirsaccordingtoyourwis...[阅读全文]
(2020-02-28 10:14:40)
文摘：2020-02-28
COVID2019
Globalspreadisrealandhappending-triggeringglobalstockmarketsell-off,10yTNdroptobelow1.16ahistoriclowest,yieldcurvenegativeagainwithinrecentyear
WallStreets-expectnoearninggrowthin2020;disrruptioninglobalsupplychainwillcauserevenueandprofitdownglobally;noonesurehowlongitwilllastasfornow
Oneofthebigbulls,JeremySiegelfromWharton,hascautionembeddedinhisopti...[阅读全文]
(2020-02-27 10:40:17)
2020-02-27文摘：“去年已有百人感染新冠15死专家:新发传染病不能直报”
https://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2020/02/27/9176412.html
12019年12月29日，武汉当地医院通过PUE监测系统，发现了最早报告的4个新冠肺炎病例。但实际上，根据中国CDC的回溯性分析，以发病日统计，2019年12月31日前已经有104人感染，15人死亡。
2很多人都在质疑“非典”之后建立的覆盖全国的传染病直报[阅读全文]
(2020-02-19 23:19:36)
02/20/2020analysisafter9thDemocraticdebatandbeforeNevadavoting:
>>TheNH&Iowaresultsgivetheclearsignals:1)socialistswillnotwingeneralpopularityevenwintheDemo'snomination,thatisshownby(a)Senders+Warrendon'tgainanynewgroundandfarbelow50%evenwithintheparty(b)AmyK'spopupjustduetoherclearrejectiontosocialism;2)moneyisnotthe#1facttowinthiselectionasshownbyTomS'nullresults;3)lar...[阅读全文]
(2020-01-30 09:28:10)
热文：记录一下首次发现新型冠状病毒的经历https://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2020/01/29/9068685.html[阅读全文]
(2020-01-29 09:02:23)
DataScienceinFinance:https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=&CIK=&type=8-k&owner=include&count=40&action=getcurrentFromTheorytoPracticehttp://cfany.gallery.video/fullconference/detail/videos/most-recent/video/6125332407001/predicting-returns-with-text-data:-data-science-in-finance:-from-theory-to-practice?autoStart=truehttp://cfany.gallery.video/fullconference/detail/...[阅读全文]
(2019-12-02 08:20:54)
文摘-2020预测{asof12/1/2019,Dow:28,051.41;S&P500:3,140.98;Nasdaq:8,665.47;GlobalDow:3,152.93;Gold:1,463.40,Oil:56.37}Today'sarticlesabout2020'sstockmarketoutlook:>>TheNewYorkTimes(November30)–"TheStockMarket'sDangersAreEasiertoSeeNow”
>>TheWallStreetJournal(November29)–"WallStreet's2020Prediction:TheStockMarketWillHaveaSo-SoYear-Manyf...[阅读全文]
>>TheWallStreetJournal(November29)–"WallStreet's2020Prediction:TheStockMarketWillHaveaSo-SoYear-Manyf...[阅读全文]
(2019-10-29 16:24:40)
居京港作家陈冠中解读中国人看香港的几大误区"1984年，一国两制方案一出台，我就完全支持，自己都想不到可以用一国两制来做这个事。尤其是邓小平说，五十年后也可以不变，我们都愿意相信这个是很有创意的想法。所以我自己是接受的，接受起草《基本法》，有了香港的小宪法之后可以按宪法做事。所以很多民主派人士，包括李柱铭、去世的司徒华，都是《基本法》[阅读全文]
