世纪之战50

世纪之战50

 

弧度度

 

普京是如何沦为配角的

 

俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前，倘若有人告诉你说俄军的钢铁洪流必将碾压乌克兰，相信绝大多数人都会信以为真；然而在俄乌之战爆发后，谁再说俄罗斯军力排名世界第二，恐怕只会贻笑大方了。

 

为什么会出现如此强烈的反差？普帝究竟是被谁忽悠瘸了——乃至从世纪强人沦为世界舞台上的配角？

 

第一个忽悠普帝的，是俄罗斯的情报组织。据三大情报机构——俄罗斯联邦安全局（FSB）、俄罗斯对外情报局（SVR）和俄军总参谋部情报总局（GRU，格鲁乌）向克里姆林宫汇报称：乌克兰政权脆弱，内部派系分裂，只要俄军挺进乌克兰，那些被策反的“内鬼”们就会率领民众夹道欢迎，通过“公投”轻松搞掂乌克兰。然而事后被证实，该部门（主要是FSB第五局）为了迎合高层期望，或是由于资金被贪污，提供了严重脱离实际的乐观报告。

 

第二个忽悠普帝的，是他的天命挚友习皇。习皇访问美国受辱后，当即打肿脸充胖子，转身飞往俄罗斯找普大帝求安慰求抱抱，双方签订“合作无上限”的盟约。两位泥足巨人约定：俄军入侵乌克兰，中共党卫军攻打台湾，中共给俄军提供充足的战略物资保障。有了这份取之不尽用之不竭的保单后，再加上由于情资错误所产生的误判，普帝不再犹豫地相信了习皇为他指明的方向：“放眼全球，我们正面临百年未有之大变局——东升西降。”

 

第三个忽悠普帝的，是俄罗斯的大小官员。与几乎所有独裁者类似，普帝最听不得逆耳忠言，对那些胆敢提出不同意见的人进行一轮又一轮大清洗。久而久之，官员们都选择了躺平，宁肯不作为、少作为也绝不去触犯普帝的逆鳞，宁肯报喜不报忧也要先保命再保乌纱帽。普帝收到的“好消息”越多，产生的误判也就越多，制定出漏洞百出的应对之策也就在所难免了。

 

无意之中，俄罗斯与朝鲜、伊朗一样，竟然也沦落为不得不接受习皇操控的——用来对付美西方的一枚棋子。习皇在俄乌之间扮演着“两面人”的角色，明面上支持俄罗斯，暗地里却援助乌克兰，甚至制定了瓜分俄罗斯远东的计划。自己约的炮，含着泪都要把它打完，普帝竟然拿背后捅刀的习皇毫无办法。

 

俄罗斯的货币大幅贬值，物价急剧飞涨，全靠中共为其输血续命；俄罗斯军队被打回原形，一百几十万青壮年为了实现普帝称霸世界的“新沙皇梦”，化作俄乌战场上的炮灰；俄罗斯迅速沦为三流国家，被国际舞台边缘化，在国际事务中几无话语权；普帝被海牙法庭审判，以“战争犯”的罪名遭到通缉，除了访问朝鲜、中共国是安全的，到访其他国家都要担心会不会遭到逮捕；历来不愿得罪中、俄的以色列竟公开威胁要“斩首普京”，可见俄罗斯的国力已经衰弱到何等地步——被乌克兰按在地上使劲摩擦，还怎么好意思在国际上混？素以精明著称的普帝竟然被憨厚老实的习皇耍得团团转，又能找谁说理去？

 

普帝的凄惨遭遇再一次证明：凡是相信中共的人，都会沦为受其操控的提线木偶；凡是相信中共的国家，都会陷于万劫不复。

 

当然，无论是金元帅还是普帝，对付狡诈多汁的习皇都自有小妙招：朝鲜在中共国近海投放脏弹，俄罗斯把核废料堆砌在中俄边境……中俄“命运共同体”，既相互绑定又相互背刺，最终鹿死谁手尚未可知。

 

实话实说，如果俄罗斯没有入侵乌克兰，世界格局将会是这样的：中、俄、朝、伊、叙结成稳固的邪恶轴心联盟，再加上古巴、委内瑞拉、巴西、南非等一众小迷弟的群魔乱舞，即可做到进可攻退可守——进可以在美国后院点火，退可以在黑海、南海、霍尔木兹海峡肆虐，足以把奉行绥靖政策的欧美吓尿。

 

如何打破僵局？唯有通过示弱来诱导中、俄的任意一方率先开战。无论是俄罗斯进攻乌克兰，还是中共党卫军攻打台湾，都会陷于美西方早已布置好的陷阱，在战争泥淖中苦苦挣扎而不得脱，最终被彻底拖垮。只要中、俄两位主要对手中的任意一方被拖垮，另一个再想挑战国际规则与秩序就没那么容易了。

 

及至懦弱的拜登下台，强势的川普回归，在排解极左民主党人（中共代理人）构陷的重重险阻后，地表最强鹰派团队终于下定决心展开反击。通过跨国抓捕马杜罗威慑古巴、哥伦比亚、墨西哥、巴西等“反骨仔”，清理南美后院；通过与以色列的强强联手，强拆“邪恶轴心”的分支——哈马斯、黎巴嫩真主党、胡塞武装、伊朗，斩断中共对外扩张的魔爪。

 

与当年的纳粹德国相比，俄罗斯具有三大无法克服的短板：一、纳粹德国的军事实力排名世界第一，而俄军的真实战力却早已沦为世界二流；二、纳粹德军用钢铁洪流的“闪电战”打赢了时间差，俄罗斯军队的钢铁洪流却输在了信息差；三、纳粹德军的实力足以单挑整个欧洲，结果却输在了资源匮乏，俄罗斯军队虽然资源充足（本身是能源大国，再加上中共输送的物资源源不断），却输在了武器的代差。

 

可怜的普帝，虽然像世纪狂人希特勒那样拥有称霸世界的野心，却怎奈遭遇的全是猪队友？习皇的犹豫不决导致错失战机，习皇的背刺更是令普帝如鲠在喉。

 

深陷穷途末路的普帝，唯一的解套方式就是接过川普递出的橄榄枝——与乌克兰和谈，转而围剿中共。中共不灭，世界必将深受其害。俄罗斯继续与中共绑定，只会被其反噬。

 

（未完待续）

 

The War of the Century, Part 50

 

Hu Dudu 

 

How Putin Became a Supporting Role

 

Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, if someone told you that the Russian army's overwhelming force would crush Ukraine, most people would have believed it. However, after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, anyone who still claims that Russia's military is the second strongest in the world would be a laughingstock.

 

Why such a stark contrast? Who exactly misled Putin—leading him from a powerful figure to a supporting character on the world stage?

 

The first to mislead Putin was Russia's intelligence agencies. According to reports from the three major intelligence agencies—the Federal Security Service (FSB), the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), and the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU)—to the Kremlin, the Ukrainian regime was fragile and internally divided. They claimed that if the Russian army advanced into Ukraine, these "traitors" would lead the people in a welcoming ceremony, easily taking control of Ukraine through a "referendum." However, it was later confirmed that the department (mainly the FSB's Fifth Directorate) provided an overly optimistic report, either to cater to high-level expectations or due to embezzlement.

 

The second person to mislead Putin was his close ally, Xi Jinping. After being humiliated during his visit to the United States, Xi immediately put on a brave face and flew to Russia to seek comfort and support from Putin. The two signed an alliance of "unlimited cooperation." The two giants agreed that if Russian troops invaded Ukraine, the Chinese Communist Party would attack Taiwan, and the CCP would provide the Russian military with ample strategic material support. With this inexhaustible guarantee, coupled with misjudgments due to flawed intelligence, Putin readily believed the direction Xi pointed him in: "Looking at the world, we are facing a great change unseen in a century—the East is rising and the West is declining."

 

The third person to mislead Putin was Russian officials at all levels. Like almost all dictators, Putin is extremely intolerant of dissenting opinions and has launched wave after wave of purges against those who dare to express different views. Over time, officials chose to lie low, preferring inaction or minimal action to provoking Putin's wrath, prioritizing survival over their positions by reporting only good news. The more "good news" Putin received, the more misjudgments he made, inevitably leading to flawed countermeasures.

 

Unwittingly, Russia, like North Korea and Iran, has become a pawn, manipulated by Xi Jinping to counter the West. Xi plays a double game between Russia and Ukraine, outwardly supporting Russia while secretly aiding Ukraine and even devising plans to partition Russia's Far East. Putin, having made his own choice, is now forced to fight it out, even with tears in his eyes, and is powerless against Xi's backstabbing.

 

Russia's currency has plummeted, and prices have skyrocketed, relying entirely on the CCP's financial support to stay afloat. The Russian military has been reduced to its original state, with hundreds of thousands of young men becoming cannon fodder on the Russo-Ukrainian battlefield in pursuit of Putin's "new Tsarist dream" of world domination. Russia has rapidly declined into a third-rate nation, marginalized on the international stage, with virtually no voice in international affairs. Putin is on trial in The Hague, wanted as a "war criminal," and only safe to visit North Korea and China; he fears arrest whenever he travels to other countries. Even Israel, historically reluctant to offend China or Russia, has openly threatened to "behead Putin," demonstrating the extent of Russia's weakened power—being thoroughly humiliated by Ukraine, how can it possibly maintain its international standing? The shrewd Putin has been completely outmaneuvered by the seemingly honest Xi Jinping; who can he turn to for justice?

 

Putin's tragic fate once again proves that anyone who trusts the CCP will become a puppet controlled by it; any country that trusts the CCP will be doomed.

 

Of course, both Kim Jong-un and Putin have their own tricks for dealing with the cunning and shrewd Xi Jinping: North Korea dropped dirty bombs in China's coastal waters, Russia piled up nuclear waste on the Sino-Russian border… The Sino-Russian "community of shared destiny" is both intertwined and mutually destructive; the final outcome remains uncertain.

 

Frankly speaking, if Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine, the world order would be like this: China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Syria would form a stable axis of evil, coupled with the chaotic antics of its followers like Cuba, Venezuela, Brazil, and South Africa, allowing for both offense and defense—offensive by setting fires in America's backyard, and defensive by wreaking havoc in the Black Sea, South China Sea, and Strait of Hormuz, enough to terrify the appeasement-seeking West.

 

How to break the deadlock? Only by feigning weakness to induce either China or Russia to initiate hostilities. Whether Russia attacks Ukraine or the CCP's armed forces invade Taiwan, both will fall into traps already laid by the US and the West, struggling in a quagmire of war from which they cannot escape, ultimately being completely dragged down. Once either of the two main adversaries, China and Russia, is weakened, it will be much more difficult for the other to challenge international rules and order.

 

With the departure of the weak Biden and the return of the strong Trump, after overcoming numerous obstacles set by far-left Democrats (CCP proxies), the world's most hawkish team finally resolved to launch a counterattack. Through the transnational arrest of Maduro, they deterred "traitors" in Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil, clearing their South American backyard; through a powerful alliance with Israel, they dismantled branches of the "axis of evil"—Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran—severing the CCP's claws of external expansion.

 

Compared to Nazi Germany, Russia has three insurmountable weaknesses: First, Nazi Germany's military strength ranked first in the world, while the Russian army's actual combat capability has long since fallen to second-rate. Second, Nazi Germany won the time war with its blitzkrieg tactics, while the Russian army's blitzkrieg tactics failed due to information disadvantage. Third, Nazi Germany's strength was enough to take on the whole of Europe, but it lost due to resource scarcity, while the Russian army, although resource-rich (it is an energy powerhouse, with a continuous supply of materials from the CCP), lost due to the generational gap in weaponry.

 

Poor Putin, although he has the ambition to dominate the world like the madman Hitler, how could he have encountered only incompetent allies? Xi Jinping's indecisiveness led to missed opportunities, and Xi's betrayal is a thorn in Putin's side.

 

Desperate, Putin's only way out is to accept Trump's olive branch—to negotiate with Ukraine and then turn to contain the CCP. If the CCP is not destroyed, the world will suffer greatly. Russia's continued ties with the CCP will only lead to its own downfall.

 

(To be continued)