世纪之战54

世纪之战54

 

弧度度

 

习皇为何要套用“修昔底德陷阱”为自己背书

 

艾利森在研究过去五百年的历史案例中，发现有十六次出现了“崛起国挑战守成国”的状况，其中多达十二次以战争收场。于是据此提出“修昔底德陷阱”的概念：“当一个新崛起的大国威胁到现有霸权国的国际地位时，双方极易产生恐惧与误判，最终导致战争不可避免。”

 

急欲称霸世界的习皇如获至宝，这不就很好地阐释了中共国为何必然挑战美国——新崛起的大国必然挑战过去的大国吗？据此，习皇自封“天选之人”，走火入魔地把战胜美国——组建“邪恶轴心”改写现行的世界规则与秩序——作为执政的首要目标。有了十三亿“安平牛马、战时炮灰”垫底，此时不建立千秋伟业、万世功勋更待何时？正所谓“天下本无事，庸人自扰之”，说的就是这个理儿。

 

然据笔者观之，套用“修昔底德陷阱”不过是一种牵强附会的误读，经不起更多的逻辑推敲，因为这套理论并非放之任何时代而皆准的真理。时代不一样了，再套用“修昔底德陷阱”之类的无厘头概念——只能像无知无识的老慈禧那样陷于单挑全世界的囚徒困境，换来的不是自取其辱，就是走向毁灭。

 

误读一：选择性相信

 

但凡偏执狂妄之人，脑袋里基本都会缺根弦，具体说就是选择性相信自己所看到的东西——对自己有利的就信，对自己不利的就忽视。

 

譬如，习皇曾公开高喊出“对我有利的就坚决执行，对我不利的就绝不兑现”，但是在国际交往中，要想实现“和谈”之目的，必须双方都有所妥协才行，怎么可能只有一方妥协而另一方绝不让步呢？既然“双赢”等于中共赢两次，谁还愿意陪你玩呢？

 

再譬如，在具体执政过程中，习皇坚定奉行“该改的坚决不改，不该改的一定要改”。坚决不搞三权分立，不从源头上杜绝腐败，反而坚持搞越反越腐的“选择性反腐”；宁可在众目睽睽下裸奔——坚持修宪，也要把“十年任期制”篡改为“终身执政”——朕死之后，哪管它洪水滔天？

 

偏听偏信的结果，只可能是把个人意志凌驾于国家意志之上，用黑帮帮规取代法律法规，越是勤政越亡国，整个国家都会被伟大领袖的一次又一次“误判”拖入无底的深渊。

 

误读二：到底谁没有安全感

 

为何崛起的日本没有挑衅美国？崛起的德国没有挑衅美国？崛起的以色列没有挑衅美国？反而是你中共一直在挑衅美国呢？

 

答案其实很简单，因为独富特色的中共不愿融入世界潮流。中共靠血腥掠夺起家，在抢劫完了国内的民财后，必然实行对外扩张；中共信奉弱肉强食的野蛮丛林法则，不愿受到平等互利的现行贸易规则所约束；中共好话说尽坏事做绝，时刻担心被审判被清算，因此总想着干翻美国当世界老大，只有当世界老大才能不受任何制约地继续霸凌全世界呀！

 

应该说，二战后以美国为首主导建立的国际规则与秩序是符合时代潮流的，是受到绝大多数国家拥护的，是能够让那些遵守规则的国家摆脱贫困走向富强的……既然中共要改写规则与秩序，那么你就拿出更合适的方案来呀！既拿不出更好的替代方案，又要在国际上强推马列邪教“共产共妻”那一套，你当全世界人民都是傻子吗？

 

中共啊中共，睁开你的马列邪眼看看吧，除了极少数流氓政权、邪教政权、恐怖组织为了领钱而与你同流合污外，不但西方列强反对你，世界人民也坚决不答应。世界人民正在发出惊天怒吼：“绝不能把这个世界让给我们鄙视的流氓！”现行秩序虽然不是最完美的，但也绝对不是霸权主义所能取代的，中共单挑全世界的结局只可能是遭到群殴。

 

误读三：拿什么挑战美国

 

中共国真的崛起了吗？六亿人月入不足一千元，九亿人月入不足两千元，八点三亿人背负沉重的债务……民企加速倒闭，外资加速撤离，大学生毕业即失业，每年有上千万应届毕业生加入失业大军，百分之四十二以上的青壮年劳力已处于准失业——被迫躺平状态……除了每年通过统计数据造假来塑造“世界第二大经济体”的虚假繁荣外，请问你从哪一点看出中共国确实崛起了？

 

前苏联的垮掉，既不是由于“竟无一人是男儿”，也不是因为美、苏的军备竞赛（那些都是次要原因），真正的原因是计划经济走入了死胡同，再也拿不出钱来豢养加盟小弟了。请问，没有钱谁还愿意跟你混？今天的中共，非但不愿对照历史进行反思，反而自认为从中汲取了发扬光大的经验，这是何等的荒谬绝伦？

 

习皇啊习皇，你连台湾都收不回来，连盟友都保护不住，请问你拿什么同美国进行世纪大决战？是你的一次次误判，还是经不起任何实战检验的防空雷达？在你尚未作出反应之前，中共党卫军部署在伊朗的“先进武器”就被炸成了破铜烂铁，整个神棍集团在开战三分钟内被就被集体团灭，而伊朗对此却毫无还手之力……既然你输出的是最先进的武器对抗美国，而它们却只能沦为战争史上的笑料，请问你那颗被“四个自信”武装起来的傲娇玻璃心又能强撑多久呢？

 

首先，美国不是“霸权主义”国家，而是文明国家公认的“世界领袖”；其次，美国拥有强大的纠错机制，拥有无与伦比的自我修复能力……被“修昔底德陷阱”迷惑了心智的习皇啊，还是早点认清现实、迷途知返吧！“修昔底德陷阱”不是你的救命稻草，而是引诱你从一个失败走向另一个失败的致命陷阱。

 

（未完待续）

 

The Battle of the Century, Chapter 54

 

Hu Dudu 

 

Why Does Xi Jinping Use the "Thucydides Trap" to Justify His Own Stance?

 

Allison, in studying historical cases over the past five hundred years, discovered sixteen instances of "rising powers challenging established powers," twelve of which ended in war. Based on this, he proposed the concept of the "Thucydides Trap": "When a newly rising power threatens the international status of an existing hegemonic power, both sides are highly susceptible to fear and miscalculation, ultimately leading to inevitable war."

 

Xi Jinping, eager to dominate the world, saw this as a perfect explanation for why China inevitably challenges the United States—a newly rising power inevitably challenges an established power. Based on this, Xi proclaimed himself the "chosen one," obsessively making defeating the United States—forming an "axis of evil" to rewrite the current world rules and order—his primary goal in governing. With 1.3 billion "peaceful laborers and wartime cannon fodder" as a foundation, when else would he not establish a great and lasting legacy? As the saying goes, "There's nothing inherently wrong in the world; it's just that fools create trouble for themselves," which perfectly illustrates this point.

 

However, in my view, applying the "Thucydides Trap" is merely a far-fetched misinterpretation that cannot withstand further logical scrutiny, because this theory is not a universally applicable truth. Times have changed, and continuing to apply nonsensical concepts like the "Thucydides Trap" will only lead to a prisoner's dilemma—like the ignorant and foolish Empress Dowager Cixi—a situation that results in either self-humiliation or destruction.

 

Misinterpretation 1: Selective Belief

 

Those who are biased and arrogant are generally lacking in common sense; specifically, they selectively believe what they see—believing what is beneficial to them and ignoring what is detrimental.

 

For example, Xi Jinping once publicly declared, "What is beneficial to me will be resolutely implemented, and what is detrimental to me will never be honored." However, in international relations, to achieve the goal of "peace talks," both sides must compromise. How can one side compromise while the other refuses to concede? Since a "win-win" situation equates to the CCP winning twice, who would want to play along?

 

For example, in the specific process of governance, Xi Jinping firmly adheres to the principle of "resolutely not changing what should be changed, and insisting on changing what shouldn't be changed." He resolutely refuses to implement the separation of powers, and instead of eradicating corruption at its source, he insists on "selective anti-corruption," which only exacerbates corruption. He'd rather run naked in the public eye—insisting on amending the constitution to change the "ten-year term" to "lifelong rule"—after his death, what does it matter if the world is in chaos?

 

The result of such biased listening and believing can only be placing personal will above the will of the state, replacing laws and regulations with gang rules, and leading to the downfall of the nation the more diligent the leader is. The entire country will be dragged into an abyss by the great leader's repeated "misjudgments."

 

Misconception 2: Who Really Feels Insecure?

 

Why hasn't a rising Japan provoked the US? Why hasn't a rising Germany provoked the US? Why hasn't a rising Israel provoked the US? Why is it that the CCP is constantly provoking the US?

 

The answer is actually quite simple: because the CCP, with its unique characteristics, is unwilling to integrate into the global trend. The CCP rose to power through bloody plunder, and after robbing its own people of their wealth, it inevitably pursues external expansion. The CCP believes in the brutal law of the jungle, the survival of the fittest, and is unwilling to be bound by the existing rules of equal and mutually beneficial trade. The CCP speaks sweet words but commits heinous acts, constantly fearing trial and reckoning, and therefore always dreams of overthrowing the US and becoming the world's hegemon. Only by becoming the world's hegemon can it continue to bully the world without any constraints!

 

It should be said that the international rules and order established after World War II, led by the US, are in line with the trend of the times, supported by the vast majority of countries, and capable of enabling those countries that abide by the rules to escape poverty and become prosperous… Since the CCP wants to rewrite the rules and order, then it should come up with a more suitable solution! Unable to offer a better alternative, yet insisting on pushing its Marxist-Leninist cult-like "communist communal wives" ideology internationally—does it think the world is stupid?

 

CCP, oh CCP, open your Marxist-Leninist eyes and see! Aside from a tiny minority of rogue regimes, cults, and terrorist organizations colluding with you for money, not only do Western powers oppose you, but the world's people resolutely refuse to accept it. The world is roaring in fury: "We must not let this world be handed over to these despicable rogues!" While the current order is not perfect, it is certainly not something that hegemony can replace. The CCP's attempt to challenge the world alone will only result in being ganged up on.

 

Misconception Three: What Can Challenge the US With?

 

Has the CCP truly risen? Six hundred million people earn less than 1,000 yuan a month, nine hundred million earn less than 2,000 yuan a month, and eight hundred million are burdened with heavy debt… Private enterprises are collapsing at an accelerated pace, foreign capital is withdrawing rapidly, college graduates face unemployment immediately upon graduation, and tens of millions of new graduates join the ranks of the unemployed every year. Over 42% of the young and middle-aged workforce is already in a state of near-unemployment—forced into a state of complacency… Besides fabricating statistics annually to create a false sense of prosperity as the "world's second-largest economy," from which point do you see that the CCP has truly risen?

 

The collapse of the Soviet Union was not due to a lack of capable men, nor was it due to the arms race between the US and the USSR (those were secondary reasons). The real reason was that the planned economy had reached a dead end, and it could no longer afford to support its former allies. Without money, who would want to follow you? Today's CCP, instead of reflecting on history, believes it has learned from and expanded upon its past experiences—how utterly absurd!

 

Xi Jinping, you can't even reclaim Taiwan, you can't protect your allies, so what makes you think you can wage a decisive battle against the United States? Is it your repeated miscalculations, or your air defense radars that can't withstand any real combat testing? Before you could even react, the "advanced weapons" deployed by the CCP's armed forces in Iran were reduced to scrap metal, and the entire cult was wiped out within three minutes of the start of the war, while Iran was utterly powerless to retaliate… Since you're exporting the most advanced weapons to confront the United States, and they only become a laughing stock in the history of warfare, how long can your arrogant, fragile heart, armed with the "Four Confidences," hold up?

 

First, the United States is not a "hegemonic" power, but a recognized "world leader" among civilized nations; second, the United States possesses a powerful error-correction mechanism and unparalleled self-repair capabilities… Xi Jinping, blinded by the "Thucydides Trap," should recognize reality and turn back from your misguided path as soon as possible! The "Thucydides Trap" is not your lifeline, but a deadly trap that lures you from one failure to another.

 

(To be continued)