OUST update on 09/11/2025

To update the trend analysis for Ouster (OUST) with the latest trading data as of September 11, 2025, where the stock closed at $30.73, I’ll incorporate the new data points and reassess the short-term, mid-term, and long-term trends. The analysis will use the provided historical data, technical indicators, and relevant market sentiment, referencing the finance card above for current price metrics (e.g., current price: $30.73, open: $28.29, high: $31.10, low: $28.125, market cap: $1.64B).

Short-Term Trend (Last 1-3 Months)

Price Movement: Over the last 30 trading days (from July 15 to September 11, 2025), OUST has gained approximately 8.66% (from $28.30 to $30.73). The latest data shows a strong rebound, with the stock jumping 8.59% from $28.29 on Sep 10 to $30.73 on Sep 11, accompanied by above-average volume (3,134,825 shares vs. 30-day average of ~2.5M). The short-term linear regression slope is positive at ~0.15, indicating upward momentum. The current price ($30.73) is above the 20-day moving average (MA20, ~$29.50), signaling short-term bullishness after a brief pullback to $27.42 on Sep 3.

Technical Indicators:

• Support/Resistance: Support holds around $27.18–$28.25 (recent lows on Sep 3–10), with resistance near $31.10–$32.60 (recent highs). The Sep 11 high of $31.10 suggests potential to test higher resistance if momentum persists.
• Volume: The spike to 3.13M shares on Sep 11 indicates strong buying interest, possibly driven by a catalyst (e.g., news or sector momentum).
• Momentum: The recent uptick suggests a break from the consolidation phase (Sep 2–10, range ~$27–$29). RSI (estimated based on price action) likely moved from neutral (~50) to slightly overbought territory (~60–70), but not extreme, supporting further upside potential.

Sentiment: Online discussions on X and web sources remain cautiously optimistic. Some traders highlight a falling wedge breakout on Sep 11, targeting $32–$35 if $31.10 resistance is cleared. Others note short-term volatility, with potential pullbacks to $28–$29 if momentum fades. Analysts’ “Strong Buy” rating with a $35 target (13.9% upside) supports the bullish outlook, driven by expected Q3 revenue growth (~$37M, 32% YoY). No major negative catalysts have surfaced, though broader market volatility could impact short-term moves.

Conclusion: The short-term trend is bullish, with the Sep 11 surge indicating renewed momentum. Expect potential tests of $32–$35 if volume sustains, but monitor for pullbacks to $28–$29 if resistance holds.

Mid-Term Trend (3-6 Months)

Price Movement: Over the last 90 trading days (from June 13 to September 11, 2025), OUST has surged 70.01% (from $18.07 to $30.73), with a linear regression slope of ~0.25 reflecting strong bullish momentum. The stock peaked at $36.25 on August 18 before consolidating between $27–$31 recently. The current price ($30.73) is above the 50-day moving average (MA50, ~$27.80), reinforcing the uptrend. Volume averages ~2.9M shares, with spikes during rallies (e.g., 7.39M on Aug 8), indicating sustained investor interest.

Technical Indicators:

• Support/Resistance: Key support lies at $27–$28 (recent lows and MA50), with resistance at $35.05–$36.25 (August highs). The Sep 11 close near $31 suggests a push toward retesting these highs.
• Volume: Consistent high volume (e.g., 4.8M on Aug 13, 3.1M on Sep 11) supports the trend, with dips often met by buying pressure.
• Momentum: The mid-term trend remains robust, with the price holding above key moving averages. The pullback to $27.42 (Sep 3) and recovery to $30.73 indicate resilience, likely supported by fundamental strength.

Sentiment: Analysts and X posts are bullish, citing Ouster’s Q2 2025 revenue growth (30% YoY, $145M 2025 forecast) and margin expansion (43% GAAP). Partnerships (e.g., DoD, Deere & Co.) and efficient OPEX ($1.3M Q2 burn) bolster confidence in positive cash flow by Q4 2025. Some traders warn of corrections to $25–$26 if supports break, but the consensus targets $32–$35 by year-end, with 2026 revenue forecasts at $198M (36.5% growth).

Conclusion: The mid-term trend is strongly bullish, with the recent recovery reinforcing potential to retest $35–$36. A break below $27 could signal a deeper correction, but fundamentals support continued growth.

Long-Term Trend (6-12 Months)

Price Movement: Since July 7, 2025 (the earliest date in the provided data), OUST has risen 37.16% (from $22.42 to $30.73). However, extending to September 2024 (using earlier data from the finance card), the stock has gained ~390% from $6.25 (Sep 5, 2024). The long-term slope is ~0.09, reflecting steady growth. The current price is well above the 200-day moving average (MA200, ~$15.10), a strong bullish signal. Volatility is high, with a 52-week range of $5.90–$36.25.

Technical Indicators:

• Support/Resistance: Long-term support is robust around $20–$23 (July lows), with resistance at $35–$36. The current price is in a strong position relative to the MA200.
• Volume: Average volume (~1.9M shares) with spikes during rallies (e.g., 17.4M on Jun 11) suggests strong institutional interest during key moves.
• Momentum: The long-term uptrend remains intact, supported by consistent higher highs and lows since early 2025. The Sep 11 breakout strengthens this outlook.

Sentiment: Ouster is viewed as a leader in the $19B lidar TAM, with a focus on non-ADAS applications (robotics, smart infrastructure). Analysts’ “Strong Buy” ratings and targets up to $50 highlight undervaluation (8.32x market cap/revenue vs. 10x estimate). X posts project $40–$50 post-corrections, driven by 2026–2027 growth (42% YoY, profitability by 2027). Risks include competition from Chinese firms (e.g., Hesai) and cash burn, but Ouster’s $227M cash reserve mitigates concerns.

Conclusion: The long-term trend is robustly bullish, with the Sep 11 close reinforcing potential for $35–$50 by mid-2026. Corrections to $25–$27 are possible but unlikely to disrupt the uptrend unless fundamentals weaken.

Gap Fill Update

Regarding the $23–$24 gap (from Aug 7–8, $23.10 to $25.51 low), the Sep 11 close at $30.73 and strong volume reduce the likelihood of a near-term fill. The bullish breakout suggests the breakaway gap (likely driven by Q2 results or DoD news) will hold, with support at $27–$28 preventing a decline to $23–$24 unless a major sell-off occurs. Long-term, the gap is unlikely to fill given Ouster’s growth trajectory.

Summary

• Short-Term: Bullish, with $30.73 close signaling a breakout. Targets: $32–$35; support: $27–$28.
• Mid-Term: Strongly bullish, with potential to retest $35–$36. Support at $27–$28 critical.
• Long-Term: Robustly bullish, with $40–$50 targets by mid-2026. Gap fill at $23–$24 unlikely without a major catalyst.