OUST update on Aug 19, 2025

Historical Overview and Recent Performance

The provided data spans from August 19, 2024, to August 19, 2025 (partial day), covering approximately one year of trading for OUST (Ouster, Inc.), a company specializing in digital LiDAR sensors for applications like autonomous vehicles, robotics, and defense. Over this period, the stock has shown significant volatility but an overall upward trajectory:

• Long-term trend (1 year): Started around $7.85 (Aug 19, 2024) and reached a high close of $35.05 (Aug 14, 2025), representing over 340% growth. Key drivers include mergers (e.g., Velodyne integration), revenue growth in LiDAR markets, and expansions into defense (e.g., partnerships with Anduril for drone sensors).
• Medium-term trend (last 3 months): From May 2025 lows around $8-12, the stock climbed steadily, accelerating in July-August due to strong Q2 2025 earnings (reported Aug 7, 2025: $35M revenue, +30% YoY, 45% GAAP gross margin, record sensor shipments). This fueled a surge from ~$23 (Aug 7) to $35+ mid-August.
• Short-term trend (last 10 trading days): Peaked at $35.05 (Aug 14 close) with high volume (4.5M+ shares), but has since pulled back. Closes: Aug 8 ($25.80, volatile day with 7.4M volume), Aug 11 ($27.88), Aug 12 ($28.70), Aug 13 ($33.11), Aug 14 ($35.05), Aug 15 ($34.72), Aug 18 ($31.64), Aug 19 ($30.20 partial, low volume 890K).

Recent pullback (from $35+ to $30.20) aligns with profit-taking after earnings hype, despite positive fundamentals. Volume has decreased post-peak, suggesting waning momentum. Today's partial data (open $32.03, close $30.20) indicates early-session selling pressure.

Technical Analysis

Using ARIMA modeling (order 5,1,0) on the close prices (adjusted for column naming issues in the data), the forecast for the next 5 trading days (Aug 20-26, 2025, assuming standard market days) suggests a slight downward continuation before stabilization:

 

Date (Forecast)	Predicted Close
Aug 20, 2025	29.85
Aug 21, 2025	29.62
Aug 22, 2025	29.91
Aug 25, 2025	30.12
Aug 26, 2025	29.78

• Explanation of ARIMA forecast: This model uses autoregressive terms on differenced data to capture momentum. Recent differencing shows negative returns (-8.87% Aug 18, -4.57% Aug 19 partial), leading to a bearish short-term bias. Steps: (1) Load and sort data chronologically, (2) Difference series for stationarity, (3) Fit AR(5) on lags, (4) Forecast by reversing differencing. Actual outcomes could vary with new catalysts; this is not predictive but trend-based.
• Key indicators:
  • Moving averages: 50-day SMA ~$25.50 (support), 200-day SMA ~$15.80 (strong long-term uptrend). Recent closes above both, but crossing below 50-day could signal deeper correction.
  • Support/Resistance: Support at $28.70-$29 (Aug 12 low/gap fill), resistance at $32-$35 (recent highs). RSI (14-day) ~55 (neutral, cooling from overbought ~75 mid-Aug).
  • Volume trend: High during surge (4-7M shares), dropping to 890K (Aug 19 partial), indicating reduced conviction.

Fundamental and Sentiment Factors

• Positive drivers: Q2 2025 results (Aug 7) beat expectations ($35M revenue, +30% YoY), with expansions in defense (e.g., Blue UAS integration) and record shipments. Analysts note vast market potential in LiDAR (~$10B+ TAM by 2030), with Zacks upgrading to Buy rank #2. Long-term targets from some sources suggest $50-$80 by 2026 if Rev8 products launch on time.
• Risks/Headwinds: High valuation (~100x EV/sales potential memetic hype, but current ~20x forward sales) prices in much optimism; profitability elusive, dilution risks loom. Mixed sentiment: Bulls see defense boom and options flow (e.g., Jan $32 puts sold), but bears warn of over-optimism post-5x rally in 4 months, predicting dips to $28-30. No major negative news, but slow R&D (e.g., delayed Rev8) could disappoint.
• Market context: Broader tech/volatility (e.g., peers like UNH down YTD) and sector rotation from AI hype could pressure short-term.

Predicted Trend for Next Few Days (Aug 20-22, 2025)

Short-term bearish correction likely, with potential for stabilization or rebound by week's end:

• Base case (most probable): Downward to sideways, testing $28-$29 support (gap fill from Aug 12-13). Pullback driven by post-earnings digestion and lower volume. If holds $29, could rebound to $32+ on renewed buying.
• Bull case: Quick reversal above $32 if defense news or buy-the-dip sentiment kicks in, targeting $35 retest (10-15% upside).
• Bear case: Breaks below $28 on broader market weakness, heading to $25 50-day SMA (15-20% downside).
• Overall outlook: Volatile but biased down short-term due to recent momentum loss; fundamentals support upside medium-term (e.g., Q3 earnings in Nov). Monitor volume and $29 level closely. Predictions are uncertain—stocks can deviate based on news/events.