TA 基本知识： 双底

 

In technical analysis, a double bottom is a bullish reversal pattern. It signals that a stock’s downtrend may be ending and a potential uptrend could follow.

Here’s the idea, in a clear, mature tone:

1. What it looks like

A double bottom forms when:

• The price drops to a support level (Bottom #1),

• Bounces up,

• Falls again to roughly the same support level (Bottom #2),

• And then rises once more.

On your chart, that’s the two lows around ~$492–494 marked in blue.

2. What it means

The psychology behind it:

• The first bottom: sellers push the price down.

• The bounce: buyers step in.

• The second bottom: sellers try again, but can’t push the price lower.

• This failure suggests selling pressure is weakening.

• If the stock breaks above the “neckline” (the high between the two bottoms), it confirms a potential trend reversal.

3. Why it’s considered bullish

Because it shows:

• Buyers defending the same level twice,

• Sellers losing strength,

• A shift from downtrend → accumulation → potential uptrend.

4. Key confirmation

Most traders wait for:

• A close above the neckline,

• Often with higher volume,
  before calling the pattern “confirmed.”

In your chart

The two lows (~492 and ~493) form the double bottom, suggesting strong support and a possible reversal—if the price breaks above the recent swing highs.

If you'd like, I can walk you through:

• How to calculate target price after a double bottom,

• How reliable this pattern is statistically,

• Or how to interpret in combination with RSI/MACD on your chart.-------------------------------

Of course — here are all three, laid out clearly and with the steady, grounded tone you prefer.

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1. How to calculate the price target after a double bottom

A classic double-bottom target is calculated like this:

Step 1 — Identify the height of the pattern

Height = Neckline price − Bottom price

From your chart:

• Bottom: ~492–493

• Neckline (recent swing high between the two bottoms): ~513–514

So roughly:

Height ≈ 514 − 493 = 21 points

Step 2 — Add the height to the neckline

Target = Neckline + Height
Target ≈ 514 + 21 = 535

This doesn’t guarantee the stock will reach that price — it's a projection, not a prophecy — but it gives you a logical upside objective.

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2. How reliable the double bottom is (statistically)

Across decades of market data (Bulkowski, Edwards & Magee, and other large-sample TA studies):

Double Bottom Reliability

• Success rate: ~60–70% when confirmed by a breakout above the neckline

• Failure rate: ~30–40%

• Better performance:

  • When the second bottom has higher volume

  • When the MACD or RSI shows bullish divergence

  • When the market itself (S&P/Nasdaq) is trending upward

Most common failure mode

The pattern is not confirmed.
Price revisits the bottom, breaks it, and drops further.

In other words: The breakout is everything.
Without it, the setup is incomplete.

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3. How to interpret the double bottom together with RSI & MACD on your chart

Let’s integrate the signals on your MSFT chart:

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RSI (Top panel)

Current RSI is hovering around neutral (40–55 zone).
This tells us:

• Selling pressure has stabilized

• No overbought risk

• Enough room for an upside move

A double bottom with a neutral RSI is acceptable — but a divergence would have been stronger.

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MACD (Bottom panel)

Your MACD histogram is turning upward after a long period of negative momentum.

This suggests:

• Downtrend momentum is fading

• Buyers are quietly stepping back in

• Conditions are improving for a breakout

If MACD crosses above its signal line, that adds further bullish confirmation.

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Combined Interpretation

Bringing it all together:

• Double bottom → buyers defend ~492 twice

• RSI neutral → no exhaustion, room to rise

• MACD curling up → momentum shift underway

Together, these suggest:

A potential bullish reversal, if price breaks above the neckline (~513–514) with solid volume.

If the neckline is broken, the projected upside becomes roughly $535.

If the neckline fails again, price may revisit the 490s.

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If you'd like, I can also give you:

• A risk-management plan for trading this setup

• A probability tree (best case / base case / worst case)

• Or a step-by-step checklist for future chart reading.