100% 准确， 但你不要这么做， 谈QQQ的20年历史。

请看这组数字，这是过去18年纳斯达克100指数（QQQ）每六个月的收益率变动。整体平均收益率为6.67%，相当于年化收益率13.34%。这通常被称为行业（大盘）平均年回报率。

9.381%, 23.143%, 2.398%, 2.237%, 14.532%, -0.254%, -0.284%, 10.956%, 11.362%, 8.648%, 5.333%, 10.72%, 4.678%, -1.401%, -2.796%, 9.841%, 4.489%, 14.269%, 7.533%, 14.187%, 5.387%, -13%, 18.482%, 2.813%, 14.97%, 19.217%, 17.84%, 7.144%, 9.885%, -7.973%, -9.447%, -4.844%, 11.386%, 12.294%, 19.877%, 16.619%, 5.132%, 6.32%

那么，如果每六个月进行一次买入和卖出操作呢？您的整体回报率仍然是13.34%，但会比仅仅持有QQQ不动更差。这是因为您需要支付交易费用，并且耗费时间。

如果您观察正收益和负收益的次数，会发现您有73.7%的时间是正确的。那么，如果在每六个月QQQ出现负收益时进行交易，并且只持有六个月呢？您的准确率将达到100%。您的回报率将是14.76%，相当于年化29.5%，远高于行业标准。您的资金会有六个月的闲置期，但可以用于其他股票。

对一个机构来说，跑赢大盘就很了不起了，29.5% 是大盘的2倍。顺便说一下，追求跑赢大盘的准确说法是, 阿尔法trading.

所以，简单来说，这是否意味着可以打败巴菲特，他的年化平均回报率低于30%？是的，理论上很简单，但实际上您这样做并不是好的策略。将来有空我再能讨论一下原因和解释一下为什么。祝您交易顺利！欢迎分享任何想法。

The following is for who people do not speak Chinese:

Please look at this set of numbers, which represents the six-month returns of the Nasdaq 100 index (QQQ) over the past 18 years. The overall average return is 6.67%, which translates to an annualized return of 13.34%. This is often referred to as the industry (market) average annual return.

9.381%, 23.143%, 2.398%, 2.237%, 14.532%, -0.254%, -0.284%, 10.956%, 11.362%, 8.648%, 5.333%, 10.72%, 4.678%, -1.401%, -2.796%, 9.841%, 4.489%, 14.269%, 7.533%, 14.187%, 5.387%, -13%, 18.482%, 2.813%, 14.97%, 19.217%, 17.84%, 7.144%, 9.885%, -7.973%, -9.447%, -4.844%, 11.386%, 12.294%, 19.877%, 16.619%, 5.132%, 6.32%

Now, what if you buy and sell every six months? Your overall return would still be 13.34%, but it would be worse than simply holding QQQ without any transactions. This is because you have to pay transaction fees and it takes time.

If you look at the number of positive and negative returns, you'll find that you are right 73.7% of the time. So, what if you trade only when the six-month QQQ return is negative and hold for only six months? Your accuracy would reach 100%. Your return would be 14.76%, equivalent to an annualized 29.5%, which is much better than the industry standard. Your funds would be idle for six months, but could be used for other tickers.

For an institution, outperforming the market is already remarkable, and 29.5% is double the market return. By the way, the accurate term for pursuing returns that outperform the market is "alpha trading."

So, simply put, does this mean you can beat Buffett, whose average annual return is less than 30%? Yes, it's theoretically simple, but in practice, doing this is not a good strategy. I can discuss the reasons and explain why when I have time in the future. Good luck with your trading! Any ideas are welcome to share.