Covid-19 大瘟疫对世界经济的影响

截至今天，大约两年前全面席卷全球的 covid-19 大流行已造成近 600 万人死亡，确诊病例超过 4 亿。大流行爆发后，世界各国政府采取了严厉的、有时甚至是严厉的措施——包括保持社交距离、就地避难、关闭和关闭命令——来阻止冠状病毒的传播。随着新冠病毒引发的危机的展开，许多家庭和公司没有做好准备，无法承受这种流行病持续时间和规模带来的收入冲击。大流行是真正的全球经济冲击。作为回应，许多政府实施了前所未有的大规模刺激计划，同时放松了货币政策。然而，2020年世界经济陷入衰退。

这篇短文的目的是评估 covid-19 大流行的经济影响。为此，重点关注2020年的主要宏观经济变量。

跨国汇总统计

2020年，在有有效数据的196个经济体中，GDP增速平均为-4.96%，中位数为-4.03%。最好的经济体（圭亚那）增长了 43.48%，而最差的经济体（中国澳门特别行政区）收缩了54%。平均失业率为 8.41%，中位数为 6.74%。失业率最高的经济体是南非，为 29.22%。失业率最低的经济体是卡塔尔，为 0.21%。

以当前美元计算，平均 GDP 为 4358.67 亿美元。最大的经济体是美国，GDP 为 209,530 亿美元。人均 GDP 为 15.340 美元，而中位数仅为 5,467 美元。

当 GDP 使用购买力平价汇率计算并以 2017 年不变美元衡量时，跨国平均数为 6644.07 亿美元。根据这一指标，最大的经济体是中国，GDP 为 230,200 亿美元。人均国内生产总值为 20,098 美元，而中位数为 12,578 美元。

经济增长

2020年，全球GDP下降了3.29%。在大流行之前的五年中，世界经济以平均每年 3.05% 的速度增长。在有有效数据的 196 个经济体中，有 158 个（或 81%）经济体出现了经济下滑。只有 39 个（或 19%）经济体勉强实现了正增长。后一组包括中国（2.35%）、土耳其（1.79%）、爱尔兰（5.87%）、埃及（3.57%）、孟加拉国（3.51%）、越南（2.91%）、新西兰（1.86%）和伊朗（3.39%），括号内为增长率。

2019 年，全球 GDP 为 875680 亿美元。2020 年降至 847,470 亿美元，比上年减少 28,210 亿美元。如果我们假设在没有大流行的情况下，世界经济在 2020 年将以 3.05% 的速度增长，这是大流行之前的五年平均增长率，那么对世界经济的损失将达到惊人的 54920 亿美元，超过 日本经济。

如果使用购买力平价 (PPP) 汇率计算 GDP，并以 2017 年不变美元衡量，2019 年全球 GDP 为 1,298,280 亿美元，但 2020 年降至 1,256,540 亿美元。这意味着 2020 年全球经济规模缩小超过由于大流行，4万亿美元。使用这一 GDP 衡量指标，并假设 2020 年世界经济将以大流行之前的五年平均速度增长，我们估计世界经济遭受的损失超过 8 万亿美元。

失业

政府对大流行爆发的最初反应，包括就地避难、关闭和关闭命令，造成了巨大的失业，尤其是在大流行的早期阶段。尽管下半年劳动力市场逐渐好转，但全球失业率从 2019 年的 5.36% 上升至 2020 年的 6.573%。

按地区划分的数据显示，2020 年阿拉伯世界的失业率最高，为 11.49%。但需要注意的是，这一高数字并非完全归因于大流行。该地区在 2019 年的失业率也最高（10.63%）。北美失业人数最多，失业率从 2019 年的 3.89% 上升到 2020 年的 8.21%。尤其是美国的失业率从 2019 年的 3.678% 上升到 2020 年的 8.05%。

可以肯定的是，年度失业数据掩盖了劳动力市场的直接冲击。例如，在最糟糕的时候，美国的失业率超过了 10%。此外，低收入和技能较少的人受到大流行的影响尤为严重。

人均国内生产总值

以 2017 年不变国际美元计算的人均 GDP 而言，2020 年世界比 2019 年减少了 708 美元，收入下降了 4.3%。与其他收入类别相比，高收入经济体的人均 GDP 下降更为明显。基于区域数据的结果是一致的。特别是经合组织、欧盟和北美的人均 GDP 分别下降了 2,215 美元、2,704 美元和 2,430 美元。

请记住，尽管低收入国家以美元计算的损失较小，但它们一开始就很穷。与富裕经济体相比，损失一美元的收入对他们来说意味着更多。 事实上，以百分比损失衡量，2020年受灾最严重的地区是太平洋岛国，人均收入下降了13.2%。

 

【注】原文是英文（附在下面）。从中抽取了部分内容，偷懒用 Google 翻译成中文，几乎没做任何改动。机器翻译效率真高，几秒钟就搞掂。大体浏览了一遍，翻译的还真不赖。

附：原文

As of today, the covid-19 pandemic, which hit the world with full force about two years ago, has caused nearly 6 million deaths, with more than 400 million confirmed cases. After the outbreak of the pandemic, governments around the world took drastic and sometimes draconian measures—including social distancing, shelter-in-place, shut-down and closure orders—to stem the spread of the coronavirus. As the covid-induced crisis unfolded, many households and firms were ill-prepared to withstand an income shock of the length and scale of the pandemic. The pandemic has been a truly global economic shock. In response, many government implemented unprecedented, large-scale stimulus packages along with the easing of monetary policy. Nevertheless, the world economy fell into recession in 2020.

The purpose of this short article is to provide an assessment of the economic impacts of the covid-19 pandemic. To this end, it focuses on the major macroeconomic variables in 2020.

Cross-country summary statistics

In 2020, among the 196 economies with valid data, the GDP growth rate is, on average, -4.96%, with a median of -4.03%. The best economy (Guyana) expanded by 43.48% while the worst (Macao SAR, China) contracted by 54%. The average unemployment rate is 8.41% and the median is 6.74%. The economy with the highest unemployment, at 29.22%, is South Africa. The economy with the least unemployment, at 0.21%, is Qatar.

When measured in current dollars, the average GDP is $435,867 million. The largest economy is the United States, with a GDP of $20,953 billion. The average per capita GDP is $15.340 while the median is only $5,467.

When GDP is calculated using the purchasing power parity exchange rates and measured in constant 2017 dollars, the cross-country average is $664,407 million. According to this metric, the largest economy is China, with a GDP of $23,020 billion. The average per capita GDP is $20,098, whereas the median is $12,578.

Economic growth

In 2020, global GDP fell by 3.29%. In the five years prior to the pandemic, the world economy grew at an average rate of 3.05% per year. Among the 196 economies with valid data, 158 (or 81%) of them suffered an economic downturn. Only 39 (or 19%) economies eked out a positive growth. The latter group includes China (2.35%), Turkey (1.79%), Ireland (5.87%), Egypt (3.57%), Bangladesh (3.51%), Vietnam (2.91%), New Zealand (1.86%), and Iran (3.39%), with growth rate in parentheses.

In 2019, global GDP was 87,568 billion in current dollars. It fell to $84,747 billion in 2020, a shrink of $2,821 billion compared to the previous year. If we assume that without the pandemic the world economy would have grown at 3.05% in 2020, which is the five-year average rate prior to the pandemic, the damage to the world economy amounts to a staggering $5,492 billion, more than the size of Japan's economy.

When GDP is calculated using the purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates and measured in constant 2017 dollars, global GDP was $129,828 billion in 2019, but fell to $125,654 billion in 2020. This implies that the global economy in 2020 was smaller by more than $4 trillion due to the pandemic. Using this measure of GDP and assuming that the world economy grows at the five-year average rate prior to the pandemic in 2020, we obtain an estimate of the damage to the world economy that exceeds $8 trillion.

Unemployment

The initial government responses to the outbreak of the pandemic, including shelter-in-place, shut-down and closure orders, caused tremendous job losses, especially in the early stage of the pandemic. Though the labor market gradually improved in the second half of the year, the world unemployment rate rose to 6.573% in 2020, from 5.36% in 2019.

Breaking down by regional data shows that the Arab world had the highest unemployment, at 11.49%, in 2020. It should be noted, however, that this high figure is not totally attributable to the pandemic. The region had the highest unemployment (10.63%) in 2019 as well. It is North America that suffered the most in terms of job losses as its unemployment rose from 3.89% in 2019 to 8.21% in 2020. In particular, the unemployment rate in the United States escalated from 3.678% in 2019 to 8.05% in 2020.

To be sure, the annual unemployment figures belie the immediate shocks in the labor market. At the worst point, for instance, the unemployment rate in the U.S. exceeded 10%. Additionally, people with low income and less skills were disproportionately affected by the pandemic.

GDP per capita

In terms of GDP per capita measured in constant 2017 international dollars, the world was $708 poorer in 2020 than it was in 2019, a drop of 4.3% in income. The drop in per capita GDP is more pronounced in high-income economies than other income categories. Results based on regional data are consistent. In particular, per capita GDP dropped by $2,215, $2,704, and $2,430 in OECD, EU, and North America, respectively.

Bear in mind that though low-income countries suffered less in dollar terms, they are poor to begin with. A loss of a dollar in income means much more to them than rich economies. In fact, when measured in percentage loss, the region that suffered the most in 2020 is Pacific island small states, with a drop of 13.2% in per capita income.