The trade war and AI revolution

Q: How do you think the trade war between the USA and China will affect the AI revolution?

A:

The present economic stagnation since 2008 is due to the advancement of productivity by the information revolution. The West just cannot handle the advancement, not to mention a more advanced AI revolution. That’s why Trump wages the trade war to counteract the progress. Instead of further globalization, America goes into isolationism. The AI revolution is no resistible. The USA cannot have an AI revolution through isolationism. Contrary to Trump, Xi will open more to embrace globalization. With this trade war, China will lead the AI revolution for sure.

The US cannot get from the negotiation table what its gunboat diplomacy cannot get in the South China Sea.

In the last few decades, the world economy has been running on the axis of Made-in-China-and-Consumed-in America. The trade war will break the axis. It is much easier for China to shift into consuming more than for the US to shift into manufacturing more.

Trump will get what he wanted. But be careful what he is wishing for. Trump is the modern-day Luddite who resists the progress of humankind. America under Trump will miss the opportunity of the AI revolution. Trump will get the sunset industries back to America while the world is marching forward.

 

(This answer was written five years ago in Quora. Readers can examine how the answer predicted what happened in the last five years. Trump has abandoned the green economy and back to the polluting economy. Trump has destroyed the US leadership in the AI area. )