船运股SB, SBLK, 和SHIP - 此轮SB和SBLK已经从低点上涨50%。 船运股涨了这么多,终于有大佬出来指出船只出

船运股SB, SBLK, 和SHIP - 此轮SB和SBLK已经从低点上涨50%。

 

船运股涨了这么多,终于有大佬出来指出船只出水装环保设备为重大推手。我比他早喊了好几个月。

 

With the world’s largest dry cargo ships coming out of service for refits to comply with tougher rules on emissions, charter rates are expected to remain strong, a top Cargill executive said, after posting 7-fold gains already this year.

“There are a lot of ships – especially on the capesizes – that will go into scrubber fitting which basically means they will be out of service for at least 25 days each to do so,” Jan Dieleman, president of trading firm Cargill’s ocean transportation business, told Reuters.

 

“If you add it all up, in a very short period of time you take actually quite some supply out of the market.”

 

Ship owners must cut emissions by reducing the sulphur content in fuel to 0.5% from 3.5% under the rules, which are set by the United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO).

 

To comply, ship owners can use low-sulphur fuel, opt for other, more expensive clean fuels such as liquefied natural gas, or install exhaust gas cleaning systems known as scrubbers.

 

Dieleman said some ships had already been taken out of service to be fitted with scrubbers and the pace will pick up in the third and fourth quarter of this year before the regulations come into effect on January 1, 2020.

 

Having hit lows under $3,500 a day earlier this year, earnings for capesize ships already stand at more than $26,000 a day, buoyed in part by demand for iron ore.

 

Panamax船运价创六年来新高! 曲线陡得有些吓人! 目前Panamax和Capesize的运价在PE=10下足以支撑SB=$5,SBLK=$20的股价,之所以股价还没有跟进,是因为大家还不确定现在的船运价能不能稳定地维持下去,这的确是个需要认真研究的问题。不过,我估计至少有半年的时间会让船运公司赚到大把的现金,减少一些债务,回购一些股票,这些都会对股价产生额外的推升。

 

通报一下,我在悄悄地建仓SHIP。SHIP现在每股净资产应该在$2.5以上(市场价,不是账面价值)。本季估计还会有亏损,但是,在目前的船运价下,下一季度应该产生PE=10下至少可以支撑$5股价的盈利。

 

但是,SHIP的负债较高,因为只有10条船,运营成本也比较高。所以投资此公司风险比投资SB和SBLK大不少,所以我只投资了一小部分试水。SHIP目前股价在$0.6左右。

 

船运价涨疯了!这样的涨幅相当于每天运费涨$1,000。记住,运费每涨$1,000,SB的股价就获得$1.4的支撑,SBLK就获得$4的支撑。现在就看这样的船运价能持续多久了,这才是关键!!!

 

Today, Tuesday, July 16 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 83 points, reaching 2011 points.

Today, Monday, July 15 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 63 points, reaching 1928 points.

Today, Friday, July 12 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 49 points, reaching 1865 points.

Today, Thursday, July 11 2019, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 39 points, reaching 1816 points.

 

本文纯属自娱自乐，不构成任何投资建议。股市有风险，投资需谨慎，买卖文中所提及的股票所产生的盈利或亏损均应由投资者个人自负。Disclosure：我重仓SB和SBLK。