托尼·布莱尔 谈中国作为全球大国的角色以及与中国交往的关键

英国前首相托尼·布莱尔谈中国作为全球大国的角色以及与中国交往的关键

Former UK PM Tony Blair on China's role as global power and the key to engage with China

YouTube June 25 2025

"China's got every right to be a major power", pointed out former UK's Prime Minister Tony Blair on Tuesday when speaking at a panel of the 16th Annual Meeting of the New Champions, or the Summer Davos, in Tianjin. He further underlined the importance to engage with China and understand China, because having dialogues is "in the world's interests."

英国前首相托尼·布莱尔周二在天津举行的第十六届新领军者年会（夏季达沃斯）小组会议上指出：“中国完全有资格成为一个大国。” 他进一步强调了与中国交往和了解中国的重要性，因为进行对话“符合世界的利益”。
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世界经济论坛主席兼首席执行官博尔格·布伦德

托尼，您第一次访问中国是在1988年。

托尼·布莱尔

谢谢你提醒我老龄化的过程，不过，嗯，我想那时的中国和现在不一样。嗯，是的，那时候有很多人骑自行车，他们现在想停下来。我发现很多人因为各种原因又开始骑自行车了。不，这太神奇了。这看起来可能是人类历史上最非凡的转型故事。嗯，顺便说一句，了解这一切是如何开始的真的很有趣。它始于中国开放。嗯，我认为……你真的把人们分为两类。说到中国，有些人不希望中国强大，而有些人非常愿意接受中国应该强大，但他们想知道这种强大将用于什么目的。所以现在你把这两类人分成了。首先，我认为这是一个有限的类别，我非常不同意他们的观点。中国凭借其文明、人口、经济和技术，完全有资格成为一个大国。你知道，这种转变已经发生，而且，因为我的研究所在世界上许多不同的国家开展工作，中国是大多数国家除了近邻之外的最大贸易伙伴，对吧？所以，你也知道，你去我们工作的国家，无论是非洲、亚洲、中亚还是拉丁美洲，人们都不想选择，你知道，人们想要建立关系，他们当然希望与美国和西方建立良好关系，但他们也希望与中国建立良好关系，对吧？所以我认为第一类人很少，我们只需要就此进行辩论。中国完全有资格成为一个大国。第二个问题是，这种力量将被用于什么用途？这就是我要对人们说的，我们应该足够强大，能够应对中国发生的任何情况，但我们应该与中国接触，我们需要了解中国，我们也需要，因为这是我真正意识到的。卸任后那段时间，我感到有些难过，因为我学到了很多东西，实际上，这真的让我震惊。我的意思是，天哪，我真希望我在任职期间就知道这些。

博尔格·布伦德

现在还不晚，你可以再次参选。

托尼·布莱尔

别给我想法，但嗯，不，我的意思是，我认为非常非常重要的一件事，也是我希望我的研究所致力于研究的一件事，就是你必须通过中国的眼睛而不是西方的眼睛来看待中国。我认为这是非常非常重要的一部分，这就是为什么我如此支持人民之间的交往，而不仅仅是政府之间的交往，因为你知道中国是这样的，你知道，到本世纪中叶，我认为实际上有三个超级大国：美国、中国，可能还有印度。其他国家如果想和这三个大国坐在一起，就必须这样做。必须团结起来，所以我认为这些区域集团将变得更加重要。你知道，欧洲就像一个水星，人们必须团结起来，做他们单独无法做到的事情。你知道，像英国这样的国家，是的，我们有着辉煌的历史，我们对此感到非常自豪，但你知道，如果你把我们放在这三个巨人旁边，仅仅从规模上看，你们并不在一个量级上。你知道，我在政治上长期学习到的另一件事是，政治当然是根据价值观运作的，但它也是根据权力运作的。你必须现实地看待这个问题。如果你周围都是巨人，他们有坐在别人身上或踩在别人身上的习惯。所以，如果你想确保自己不会被坐在别人身上，你就必须团结起来。这就是为什么无论遇到什么困难，比如在欧洲，我认为是向心力，是向心踏板把东西放在一起，是向心力。呃，这是必要的，因为人们需要团结起来，无论你是德国、意大利、法国，你都知道你需要团结起来，才能在平等的基础上进行对话，所以我认为这就是现在正在发生的事情，你看，我认为你知道，要理解中国，要与中国保持接触，而不是试图孤立中国。中国，嗯，这就是我所信奉的政策。世界利益在于，你有一个公平的贸易体系，你正在处理气候变化等问题。你知道，全球健康，我的意思是，看看我们经历了疫情。你知道，我只是认为，我相信，无论当今世界存在什么差异，你都应该努力去解决它们，但你必须让每个人都参与进来，相互对话，因为你们有很多共同点。你知道，即使在今天的中美关系状况下，你知道，是的，嗯，美国与中国的贸易大幅下降，但仍然有数千亿美元。嗯，所以我认为，你不可避免地会陷入这样一种境地：如果你找不到对话的途径，你就会被迫再次回到对话中，因为这样做符合你的利益。嗯，我认为，例如与欧洲，欧洲现在面临的巨大挑战是，它必须找到方法。成为对话中的重要参与者，但要做到这一点，它必须增强自身实力。我认为你明白了。欧洲面临的问题是，它如何拥有独立的力量。你知道，在当今世界，你需要两样东西。嗯，要强大，你需要强大的军事和强大的经济。现在，就军事而言，欧洲的防务，我认为它最终会有机会。我几年前和法国总统一起开启了这个项目。嗯，它从未真正起步。但我认为，在某种程度上，人们现在明白了，欧洲必须拥有独立的能力。例如，如果在家门口发生冲突，就像现在这样，它必须拥有在军事上影响冲突的能力，然后是强大的经济。嗯，你知道，关键在于竞争力。而今天，我认为关键在于技术，尤其是人工智能革命。欧洲目前在这方面并非关键参与者。我的意思是，虽然有美国和中国，但欧洲还有很多工作要做。嗯，我认为它可以做到。那份拖沓的报告已经发布。嗯，阐明欧洲应该做什么是正确的。人们对欧洲是否会这样做非常怀疑。我个人认为它可能会这样做，但这对欧洲来说至关重要。问题是，它如何才能变得足够强大，无论是与始终是关键盟友的美国，还是与中国，都能在平等的基础上进行对话。这就是力量。

Former UK PM Tony Blair on China's role as global power and the key to engage with China

ShanghaiEye2025年6月25日

"China's got every right to be a major power", pointed out former UK's Prime Minister Tony Blair on Tuesday when speaking at a panel of the 16th Annual Meeting of the New Champions, or the Summer Davos, in Tianjin. He further underlined the importance to engage with China and understand China, because having dialogues is "in the world's interests."
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Børge Brende, President and CEO of the World Economic Forum

you visited China the first time in 1988 Tony 

Tony Blair

thank you for reminding me of the aging process but yeah it's uh I I I guess there was a different China then compared to today huh yes then there were a lot of people on bicycles which they wanted to get off today I find there are a lot of people getting
back on bicycles for different reasons no it's an amazing it's look it's probably the most remarkable story of transformation in human history um and by the way it's really
interesting to know how it began it began with China opening up and look I think um
you you really define people into you know two categories when it comes to China there are people who do not want China to be powerful and then there are people who are perfectly willing to accept that China should be powerful but wonder to what purpose will this power be put so you've got these two categories of people now on the first I think it's a limited category and they're people I just profoundly disagree with china's got every right to be a major power by dent of its civilization its population its economy its technology you know the fact that this transformation story has happened also you know because my institute works in so many different countries in the world China is most
countries biggest trading partner other than their nearest neighbor right so you've also got you know you go to the countries we work in whether in Africa in Asia central Asia Latin America people don't want to choose you know people want relations of course they
want good relation with America and the west but they also want good relations with China right so I think that first category of people is small and we just need to have an argument there China's got every right to be a power the second question is to what use is this power going to be put and that's where what I say to people is you you we should be strong enough to deal with whatever happens in China but we should be engaged with China we need to understand China and we also need cuz this is what's come home to me I Look one of the really sad things about uh the period of time after leaving office is is how much I've learned in fact it's actually shocking i mean I think God I wish I'd known all this when I was doing the job you know it's 

Børge Brende

it's not too late you can run again

Tony Blair

don't give me ideas but um no I mean and one of the things I think is really really important and it's something I I want my institute to work on is you got to see China through China China's eyes and not through the west's eyes and I think this is a really really important part of this is why I'm so much in favor of engagement peopleto
people not just government to government business because you know China's it it's it's you know you're going to reach the middle of this century where I think effectively you've got three superpowers there'll be America China and probably India and everyone else is going to have to if they want to sit at the same table as the three giants they're going to have to come together that's why I think you're getting these regional blocks are going to become much more important you know Europe as um mercaur you know people are going to have to do together what they can't do individually because you know a country like Britain yes we've got a fabulous history of which we're very proud but
you know you put us alongside those three giants and just by dent of size you're not you're not at the same scale and you know the thing thing I one of the other things I've learned in politics over a long period of time is that you know politics does operate of
course according to values but it also operates It's according to power and you just got to be realistic about it if you if you are around giants they have a habit of sitting on people or treading on them and so if you if you want to make sure you're not going to get sat on you got to come together and that's why um whatever the difficulties for example
in Europe that I think it's centripedal is it centrip pedal that puts things together yeah that centripedal force uh of necessity because people need to come together whether you're Germany Italy France you know you need to come together in order to be able to to to have a a dialogue in equal terms so I think this is the the way it's happening
and look I think you know understanding China staying engaged with China not engaged in trying to isolate China uh that's the policy I believe in look the interests of the world are that you have a a fair trading system that you're dealing with issues like climate
change you know global health i mean look at we went through the pandemic you know I just think it's I'm just a believer that whatever differences there are in today's world you try and sort them out but you've got to keep in keep everyone engaged together and in dialogue with each other because you've got so many things that you have to do in common and you know even today with the the state of US China relations and and you know yes
it's true um America's trade with China is declined significantly but it's still hundreds of billions of dollars um and so I think you you know you're inevitably in a situation where if you don't find means of having dialogue you'll be forced back into it again because because it's in your interest to do it um and one of the reasons why I think for example with with with Europe you know there's a huge challenge now for Europe is that it's going to have to find the way of being an important player in that dialogue but
to do that it's going to have to strengthen itself i think you see the qu the question for Europe is how does it have independent strength and you know there are two things that you need in today's world uh to be strong right you need a strong military and a strong economy now in the military terms Europe European defense now I think it's eventually got a chance I started it actually with the president of France um some years back um it never really took off but I think in a way people understand now Europe's got to the independent ability for example if it's got a conflict going on on its own doorstep which is the case right now it's got to have the ability militarily to influence that and then the strong economy um you know the key thing is competitiveness and today the key to that in my view is technology and in particular the artificial intelligence
revolution which Europe at the moment is is not a key player in i mean you got America you got China but Europe's got a lot of catching up to do um I think it can do it that the draggy report that was published uh um setting out what Europe should do is the right thing people are very skeptical whether Europe will do it i personally believe it it it may do but that's the key for Europe the question the question is how does it become independently strong enough that whether it's engaging with America that will always be a key ally or with China it's able to have the dialogue on equal terms and that's you know that's Power