风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
未来展望：特朗普政府领导下的国内和世界秩序的变化
雷·达里奥 雷·达里奥 创始人、首席信息官导师、桥水基金董事会成员 2024年11月20日
未来展望：特朗普政府领导下的国内和世界秩序的变化
如今，特朗普领导的右翼阵营以压倒性优势击败哈里斯的左翼阵营，以及哈里斯的多项重要任命已宣布，特朗普险胜并引发选举纷争的噩梦已成过去，一幅可能出现的图景正在浮现。我想明确指出，我所描绘的图景力求尽可能准确，不带任何好坏偏见，因为准确性对于以最佳方式做出决策至关重要。
我所看到的图景是：1）对政府和国内秩序进行大规模革新，旨在使其更高效地运转，这将包括一场将这一愿景转化为现实的内部政治战争；2）“美国优先”的外交政策，并准备与被视为美国最大威胁的中国进行外部战争。最近一次类似的时期是20世纪30年代，当时几个国家都出现了这种做法。
唐纳德·特朗普选择与他一起实现这一目标的人是：埃隆·马斯克和维韦克·拉马斯瓦米，他们将负责新提出的政府效率部；马特·盖茨，作为司法部长（如果他获得参议院批准），将突破负责这一新秩序的人的法律界限；罗伯特·肯尼迪，将担任卫生与公众服务部部长，彻底改革医疗体系；任命马可·卢比奥为国务卿，图尔西·加巴德为国家情报总监，皮特·赫格塞斯为国防部长，他们将领导对抗外国对手的斗争。许多其他人——有些可能在政府任职，有些则将担任外部顾问，例如塔克·卡尔森、史蒂夫·班农和一些特朗普的家人——将与特朗普一起执行任务。他们都是效忠于这位领导人、不惜一切代价取胜的拥护者，他们也都致力于推翻所谓的“深层政府”，建立新的国内秩序，希望以此创造最大的经济实力并打击外国敌人。
一旦这些人到位，同样的任命方式可能会被用来清除政府中那些被指控为“深层政府”一部分、不认同也不忠于这项使命的人。这将扩展到政府系统的所有部门，包括那些此前被认为政治/意识形态控制较少的部门，例如军队、司法部、联邦调查局、证券交易委员会、美联储、食品药品监督管理局、疾病控制与预防中心、国土安全部、内政部以及“F类”政府雇员（候任总统特朗普希望重新引入这一职位分类，以重新划分某些政府职位，从而取消对公务员的保护）。总统（以及共和党控制的参议院、众议院和司法部）能够控制的几乎所有任命职位都将受到控制，以便人们与特朗普总统及其新的国内秩序保持一致。在此过程中，政府内外的大多数人都将被视为盟友或敌人，唐纳德·特朗普及其盟友掌握的所有权力都将被用来打击那些阻碍他们改革的敌人。我认为，他们几乎肯定会对改变国内和世界秩序产生重大影响。这些秩序将会是什么样子？
国内秩序的变迁
如今显而易见的是，唐纳德·特朗普及其选出的官员将改革政府和国家，就像企业掠夺者对一家效率低下的公司进行恶意收购一样，通过更换人员、削减成本和注入新技术，对其进行大规模改革。想想戈登·盖柯在“贪婪是好事”演讲中表达的观点，同时也要意识到，这番话出自美国总统之口，他将把这种做法应用于中央政府和整个国家。如前所述，历史上最近的类似案例是20世纪30年代的极右翼各州。需要明确的是，我并不是说特朗普及其政府官员是法西斯主义者，或者会在很多方面像法西斯领导人那样行事；我想说的是，为了理解那些如今正以民族主义、保护主义、自上而下、政府主导的经济和社会政策掌控国家，以及那些对内部反对派缺乏容忍度、深陷国际大国冲突的国家，有必要了解那些在20世纪30年代采取类似政策的国家是如何表现的。
国家极有可能通过旨在提高生产力和效率的产业政策来实现这一目标，而这些政策不会过多地考虑民众或其他问题——例如环境保护、应对气候变化、消除贫困或鼓励多元化、公平和包容——这些问题可能会阻碍这些目标的实现。某些关键领域（包括我认为最重要的领域，即教育和债务管理）可能会被忽视（民主党本来也会忽视这些领域）。只要特朗普-马斯克的合作关系持续下去，他们就将是这一新国内秩序的主要设计者和实施者。
这些政策很可能对华尔街、一些科技公司以及大多数受监管困扰、担心增税的企业有利。虽然这些实体此前在交易方面受到诸多限制，但它们将更加自由地摆脱政府的限制。这些变化对金融交易商、银行和资产管理公司来说将是件好事，因为他们将拥有更多自由、更多资金和信贷，因为资本管制将得到放松，美联储将面临放松货币政策的压力。这些政策对支持特朗普的科技公司来说将大有裨益，因为它们将被允许以基本不受约束的方式发展和运营。这些政策对律师来说也同样有利，因为他们也会非常忙碌。我已经看到，这些人的计划发生了巨大变化，在特朗普政府的领导下，他们将比在民主党政府领导下做得更多。此外，人工智能将不再受到像以往那样的监管，关税将被用来同时增加税收和保护国内生产商。如果美联储继续降息（我认为它不应该这样做），这也会将大量货币市场基金和其他存款中的资金转移到其他市场，这将刺激市场和经济。
此外，美国正处于一场经济战和地缘政治战之中，并且可能与中国以及俄罗斯、伊朗和朝鲜等其他国家陷入军事战争，这将对国内安全和国内政策产生重大影响。例如，确保美国拥有所有关键技术的可接受数量，将导致制定政策，使这些技术在美国制造（例如，到2030年，20%的最先进芯片必须在美国生产）或在盟国制造，这将要求中央政府拥有强有力的、坚持执行的能源和监管政策，以使这些变革得以实现。
变化中的国际秩序
国际秩序将从a) 二战后由美国及其盟友创建的残破体系（该体系包含/曾经包含普遍认可的全球行为标准、规则和管理机构，例如联合国、世界贸易组织、国际法院、国际货币基金组织、世界银行等）转变为b) 一个更加碎片化的世界秩序，美国将奉行“美国优先”政策，明确划分盟友、敌人和不结盟国家，未来十年经济和地缘政治战争将更加频繁，军事战争的可能性也将比以往任何时候都更大。换句话说，我们正走向一个由美国主导的时代的终结。在这个时代，各国试图通过制定指导原则和规则的跨国组织共同探索如何相处，并最终走向一个更加利己主义的丛林法则式的秩序，美国是两大参与者之一，中国是另一个——这场斗争在很大程度上是典型的资本主义与共产主义（以其当代版本）的斗争。
因此，受美国道德观影响的道德和伦理概念将变得不再重要，因为美国将不再是提出和执行这些原则的世界领导者。盟友和敌人的选择将更多地基于战术考量，例如交易内容。各国站在哪一边将是最重要的问题。中国将被视为主要敌人，因为它既是最强大的国家，也是意识形态上最受反对的国家，而俄罗斯、朝鲜和伊朗也是敌人。事实上，中国被广泛认为是美国最大的威胁，甚至比国内威胁更大。至于其他国家，我现在不想离题阐述它们的立场，但我要说的是，它们现在都被不同程度地划分为盟友和敌人，这将成为应对它们的指南。不过，我要说的是，目前正在制定针对每个主要国家和每个主要领域的详细计划。所有国家都将面临巨大的压力和可能性，以改变其国内秩序，使其与美国保持一致，而不是强硬地对抗。
What's Coming: The Changing Domestic and World Orders Under the Trump Administration
What’s Coming: The Changing Domestic and World Orders Under the Trump Administration
Now that the nightmare scenario of a close Trump loss and ensuing fight over the election has been taken off the table by a decisive Trump-led rightist sweep over Harris’s leftist alternative and a number of his key appointments have been announced, a picture of what is likely to happen is emerging. I want to make clear that the picture I am painting is meant to be as accurate as possible without any biased opinions of good or bad, because accuracy is what's most important for making decisions in the best possible way.
The picture that I see is one of 1) a giant renovation of government and the domestic order aimed at making it run more efficiently, which will include an internal political war to convert that vision into reality, and 2) an “America first” foreign policy and preparation for external war with China, which is perceived to be America’s greatest threat. The most recent analogous period is the 1930s, when such an approach emerged in several countries.
The people Donald Trump is choosing to make this happen with him are: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who will run the newly proposed Department of Government Efficiency; Matt Gaetz, who, as Attorney General (if he gets the Senate’s approval), will push the legal limits of what those who are running this new order can do; RFK Jr., who would radically reform the healthcare system, as Secretary of Health and Human Services; and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, and Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, who will lead the fight against foreign adversaries. Many, many others—some who might be in government and some who will be outside advisors, like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, and a few Trump family members—will be on the mission with Trump. They are all win-at-all-cost loyalists to the leader and to the mission of bringing down the so-called “deep state” and replacing it with a new domestic order that they hope will create maximum economic strength and fight foreign enemies.
Once these people are in place, the same appointment approach will likely be used to purge the government of those accused of being part of the “deep state,” who are not aligned with and loyal to the mission. This will extend to all parts of the government system including those that were previously thought to be less politically/ideologically controlled, such as the military, the Department of Justice, the FBI, the SEC, the Federal Reserve, the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of the Interior, and “Schedule F” government employees (a job classification that President-elect Trump wants to reintroduce to reclassify certain government jobs to remove civil service protections). Most all appointed positions that the president (in conjunction with the Republican-controlled Senate, House, and the Department of Justice) can control will be controlled, to have people aligned with President Trump and his new domestic order in place. In the process of doing this, most everyone in and out of government will be viewed as either an ally or an enemy, and all powers at the disposal of Donald Trump and allies will be used to beat the enemies who are standing in the way of their reforms. I think they will almost certainly have a big impact on changing the domestic and world orders. What will they look like?
The Changing Domestic Order
It is now clear that Donald Trump and those he is choosing will reform government and the country like a corporate raider engaging in a hostile takeover of an inefficient company, making huge reforms to it by changing the people, slashing costs, and infusing it with new technologies. Think of Gordon Gekko and the perspective he conveyed in his “greed is good” speech, while recognizing that this is coming from the president of the United States, who is going to take that approach to the central government and the entire country. As mentioned, the most recent analogous historical cases were the hard-rightist states in the 1930s. To be clear, I am not saying that Trump and those in his government are fascist or will behave as fascist leaders did in many respects; what I am saying is that, in order to understand those who are now taking control with nationalistic, protectionist, top-down, government-led economic and social policies, and who have little tolerance for internal opposition and are embroiled in international great powers conflicts, it is worth understanding how those states with analogous policies in the 1930s behaved.
The economic renovation of the country will, in all likelihood, come via industrial policies that are designed to improve productivity and efficiency without much worry given to the people or issues— such as taking care of the environment, addressing climate change, remediating poverty, or encouraging diversity, equity, and inclusion—that could stand in the way of these things happening. Certain key areas (including the areas that I think are most important, which are education and debt management) will likely be neglected (and would have also been neglected by the Democrats). For as long as the Trump-Musk partnership lasts, they will be the main designers and implementers of this new domestic order.
These policies may well be great for Wall Street and some tech and most businesses that are plagued by regulations and worried about increased taxes. While these entities have been previously restrained in many ways from doing deals, they will be much freer from government constraints. These changes will be great for financial deal makers, banks, and asset managers because they will have more freedom and more money and credit, because capital controls will be eased and the Fed will be pressured to make money easier. These policies will be great for pro-Trump tech companies because they will be allowed to grow and operate in largely unrestrained ways. These policies will also be good for lawyers, who will be busy too. I am already seeing big changes in these people’s plans to do much more under the Trump Administration than they could have done under a Democratic government. Also, AI won’t be as regulated, and tariffs will be used to simultaneously raise tax money and protect domestic producers. If the Fed continues in its path to cut interest rates (which I don’t think it should do), that will also shift a lot of cash that is saved in money market funds and other deposits into other markets, which will be stimulative to markets and the economy.
Also, the realization that the United States is in an economic war and a geopolitical war, and could find itself in a military war, with China as well as with others like Russia, Iran, and North Korea, will have big effects on domestic security and domestic policies. For example, ensuring that the U.S. will have acceptable amounts of all key technologies will lead to policies for these technologies to be made in the U.S. (e.g., 20% of the most advanced chips will have to be produced in the U.S. by 2030) or made in allied countries, which will require the central government to have strong and insist on well-implemented energy and regulatory policies that enable these changes to be made.
The Changing International World Order
The international world order will change from a) the existing tattered remains of the post-World War II system that was created by the U.S. and its allies, in which there are/were generally agreed-upon global standards of behavior, rules, and governing organizations like the UN, WTO, International Court of Justice, IMF, World Bank, etc. to b) a more fragmented world order, in which the United States will pursue an “America First” policy with clear categorizations of allies, enemies, and nonaligned countries, as there will be greater amounts of economic and geopolitical war and a greater-than-ever chance of military war in the next 10 years. In other words, we are now coming to the end of an era led by the United States, in which countries tried to work out together how to be with each other through multinational organizations with guiding principles and rules, and into a more self-interested, law-of-the-jungle-type order with the United States being one of the two biggest players and China the other— and the fight being largely the classic one of capitalism versus communism (in their contemporary versions).
So, concepts of morality and ethics that were shaped by American views of what is moral and ethical will be much less relevant, as the United States will no longer be the world leader in proposing and enforcing these principles. Allies and enemies will be chosen more on the basis of tactical considerations like what the deals will be. The question of which side countries are on will be most important. China will be treated as the primary enemy because it is both the most powerful and the most ideologically opposed, while Russia, North Korea, and Iran are also enemies. In fact, China is widely considered the United States’ single greatest threat, even a greater threat than the domestic threats. As for other countries, I won’t now digress into an explanation of where they stand, but I will say that they all are now categorized as allies and enemies to varying degrees, and this will be a guide for dealing with them. I will, however, say that detailed plans are now being worked out for dealing with each major country and each major subject area. All countries will be given great pressures and possibilities to change their domestic orders to be aligned with, rather than opposed to, the Trump-U.S. leadership and order, and if they don’t get on our side, they will encounter negative consequences. This conflict between the two great powers will create opportunities, most importantly business opportunities, for neutral nonaligned countries.
This change in this world-order dynamic will also have big implications for the developing world (or the “Global South” as it’s now called), and therefore the whole world, because it contains roughly 85% of the world’s population and will likely go its own way, because the U.S. will no longer lead a common world order based on certain ideals and other countries won’t necessarily want to follow the U.S. The U.S. and China will be competing for allies, with China generally believed to be in a much better position to win over nonaligned countries because China is more important economically and does a better job exerting its soft power. Given these changes in the world order, nonaligned countries that 1) are financially strong—i.e., have good income statements and balance sheets, 2) have internal order and capital markets that facilitate people and the country to be productive, and 3) are not in an international war will benefit.
More Specifically, to Elaborate, There Will Be…
…More government influence to achieve the government’s objectives, even if that comes at the expense of our free-market, profit-seeking system, with debates between the conservatives who favor this top-down direction and those who favor the free market more. Along these lines, we should expect more government influence on private markets to achieve the government’s objectives. This is needed to achieve the grand plan to reshape the economy and prepare for war. So, we should keep in mind that cost efficiency and national security achieved by the government working with national-champion companies is the primary objective, not profit-making alone, because profit making won’t achieve those goals. We should pay attention to policy shifts that will drive what areas of the economy will benefit most (e.g., the energy and minerals sectors that support the AI technology sector). While there will be free-market winners, there are obvious cases where the best companies in the United States are not good enough to give the United States what is needed (e.g., in advanced semiconductors), so key relationships with aligned foreign producers (e.g., TSMC in Taiwan) to produce in the U.S. are needed to minimize all dependencies on foreign adversaries. Besides the need to domestically produce essential technologies, there is the need to domestically produce steel, autos, and many other essential items. That will mean more onshoring and friendshoring. There is also a recognized sabotage risk of being cut off in a number of ways that will have to be dealt with.
…A massive deregulatory push in support of cost-efficient production.
…Immigration and deportation actions, with the initial emphasis being on closing the border and deporting undocumented immigrants with criminal records.
…Trade and tariff reform.
…Challenges in assembling and working with U.S. allies. Japan is our most important ally in the geopolitical conflict with China, so what is now happening there politically is important. Other allies are the U.K. and Australia, but they are not great powers. Europe is weak, has its hands full with its own problems, and doesn’t have a dog in this fight, while it has Russia on its doorstep and can’t fight it without the U.S.’s NATO support. Most other countries don’t want to get into the fight, as what is being fought for by the United States isn’t as important to them as it is to the United States, and they have more economic dependencies on China than on the U.S. The nonaligned Global South rising powers—which, along with China and Russia, are members of BRICS—are countries to pay attention to.
…The high economic costs of being the dominant world power—i.e., of having the most important technologies, a strong military, and being able to provide soft power—will be greater than the profit-making approach can provide, so how that economic reality will be handled will need to be worked out.
…The need to lower taxes to keep the electorate happy and to keep money in the hands of those who are most productive. Trump and his advisors believe that a lower corporate tax rate than currently exists (around 20%) will raise total taxation and raise productivity. That perspective is good for the markets.
…Significant reforms of the healthcare system.
There is a very limited time—the first 100 days and then the first two years—to get these difficult-to-do things done, so there will have to be vicious prioritization. We don’t yet know what will be prioritized and how successful the new administration will be when the force of its aspirations meets the relatively immovable object of the entrenched system. It certainly will be an interesting and important time, so let’s stay in touch.
The views expressed in this article are mine and not necessarily Bridgewater’s.
