Ray Dalio 美国政治分歧内战可能性40%

雷·达利奥表示，美国内战的风险高达 40%——并认为泰勒·斯威夫特可能是一位好总统

https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-taylor-swift-civil-war-presidential-election-inequality-politics-2024-5

Theron Mohamed 2024 年 5 月 17 日

雷·达利奥认为，美国政治分歧升级为内战的可能性高达 40%。

这位对冲基金亿万富翁曾多次警告美国债务以及内外冲突。达利奥半开玩笑地支持泰勒·斯威夫特担任总统，称她有能力团结人民。

雷·达利奥警告说，美国内战的可能性高达 40%——并表示如果泰勒·斯威夫特竞选总统，他可能会支持她。

“我们现在正处于边缘，”他在最近的一次采访中告诉《金融时报》，这提出了“更加动荡的时代”的可能性。

达利欧是全球最大对冲基金桥水基金的亿万富翁创始人，也是《应对不断变化的世界秩序的原则：国家成功和失败的原因》一书的作者。

他认为内战的可能性为 35% 至 40%，并补充说内战不一定是一场枪战。

达利欧是桥水基金三位联席首席投资者的官方导师，多年来一直在对美国的政治两极分化和经济动荡发出警告。

这位金融历史学家一再强调，极端的政府债务水平、巨大的贫富差距、不断加剧的内部分歧和激烈的外部冲突可能为战争、革命和新世界秩序铺平道路。

2020 年末，他警告说，美国“正在经历一种内战”，因为大量人出于政治和税收等原因迁徙各州。

雷·达利奥表示，他持有黄金是为了对冲债务和通胀危机

他哀叹，2021 年初，美国处于“糟糕的财政状况和严重的分裂状态”。

在 10 月以色列与哈马斯冲突爆发后，他宣布美国和中国爆发世界大战的风险已从 35% 飙升至约 50%。

不再有仇恨

达利奥告诉英国《金融时报》，在参加了一场斯威夫特演唱会后，他相信这位流行歌星可能是解决美国分裂问题的办法。

“我看到她如何把各种各样的人——以及许多国籍的人——聚集在一起，”他说。“我这么说部分是开玩笑，但如果她竞选总统并听取优秀顾问的意见，我会考虑支持她。”

达利奥在 3 月发布了一张斯威夫特“时代之旅”演唱会的自拍照，表明自己是斯威夫特粉丝。

他在后续帖子中澄清说，他只是开玩笑说支持她。但他认真地表示，“她比任何一位总统候选人都能更好地团结人民。”

即使达利欧只是在开玩笑地谈论 T-Swift 担任总统，但他清楚地认识到，在世界处于紧张状态、人们似乎比以往任何时候都更加疏远的时候，需要一位团结的领导人。

Elite investor Ray Dalio says risk of US civil war is up to 40% — and thinks Taylor Swift could be a good president

https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-taylor-swift-civil-war-presidential-election-inequality-politics-2024-5

Theron Mohamed  May 17, 2024

Ray Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates. Reuters / Ruben Sprich

• Ray Dalio sees up to a 40% chance that political division in the US escalates into civil war.
• The hedge fund billionaire has repeatedly warned about US debt and internal and external conflicts.
• Dalio half-jokingly endorsed Taylor Swift for president, citing her ability to unite people.

Ray Dalio warned the probability of a US civil war is as high as 40% — and said he might back Taylor Swift if she ran for president.

"We are now on the brink," he told the Financial Times in a recent interview, raising the prospect of "much more turbulent times."

Dalio is the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, and the author of "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail."

He pegged the chances of a civil war at 35% to 40%, adding that it may not necessarily be a shooting war.

Dalio, the official mentor to Bridgewater's three co-chief investors, has been sounding the alarm on political polarization and economic upheaval in the US for years.

The financial historian has repeatedly underscored that extreme levels of government debt, massive wealth inequality, rising internal divisions, and raging external conflicts can pave the way for war, revolution, and a new world order.

In late 2020, he cautioned the US was "seeing a form of civil war" as masses of people moved states for reasons ranging from politics to taxes.

Ray Dalio says he's owning gold to hedge debt, inflation crisis

He bemoaned that America was in a "terrible financial state and terribly divided" in early 2021.

After the Israel-Hamas conflict ignited in October, he declared the risk of a world war involving the US and China had surged from 35% to about 50%.

No more bad blood

Dalio told the FT that after attending a Swift concert, he believed the pop star might be the solution to American division.

"I saw how she brought people of all sorts — and many nationalities — together," he said. "I say this partly as a joke, but if she ran for president and would listen to great advisers, I'd consider supporting her."

Dalio revealed himself to be a Swiftie when he posted a selfie from one of the singer's "Eras Tour" concerts in March.

He clarified in a follow-up post that he was joking about endorsing her. But he was serious that "she can bring people together a lot better than either of the presidential candidates."

Even if Dalio was just having fun with his talk of a T-Swift presidency, he clearly recognizes the need for a unifying leader at a time when the world is on edge and people seem further apart than ever.