风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
美国总统大选可能取决于2024年的经济前景，而这在一定程度上取决于中东战火如何演变”
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2023/12/29/joseph-stiglitz-the-us-presidential-election-may-hinge-on-the-2024-economic-outlook-which- 部分取决于中东大火如何演变_6386180_23.html
约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨，哥伦比亚大学经济学教授
2001 年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者表示，以色列和哈马斯之间的战争之后，特朗普获胜和新的石油危机的可能性会给全球经济带来更大的风险。
2023 年 12 月 29 日下午 5:01
如果有一件事件主宰 2024 年，那几乎肯定是美国总统大选。 除非出现意外，我们很可能会看到乔·拜登与唐纳德·特朗普的重赛，而结果却充满不确定性。 一年后，关键摇摆州的民意调查显示特朗普处于优势。
这次选举不仅对美国很重要，而且对世界也很重要。 结果可能取决于 2024 年的经济前景，而经济前景又部分取决于中东最新的大火如何演变。 我最好的猜测（也是最糟糕的噩梦）是，以色列将继续无视国际社会对加沙停火的请求，数十年来，那里有 230 万巴勒斯坦人陷入贫困。 我在 20 世纪 90 年代末作为世界银行首席经济学家访问期间所看到的情况足以令人心碎，自从 16 年前以色列和埃及针对哈马斯接管该飞地实施全面封锁以来，情况变得更糟。
无论哈马斯在 10 月 7 日犯下何种暴行，阿拉伯街头都不会容忍加沙的暴行。 鉴于此，我们很难避免1973年的重演，当时欧佩克的阿拉伯成员国对在赎罪日战争中支持以色列的国家实施了石油禁运。 这一报复措施不会真正让中东石油生产商付出代价，因为价格上涨将弥补供应的减少。 难怪世界银行和其他机构已经警告油价可能上涨至每桶 150 美元或更高。 这将引发另一轮供应驱动型通胀，就像大流行后通胀得到控制一样。
悲剧
在这种情况下，拜登将不可避免地被指责为物价上涨的罪魁祸首，并被指责对中东管理不善。 特朗普政府的《亚伯拉罕协议》和以色列对事实上的一国解决方案的倾斜重新点燃了冲突，这并不重要。 无论公平与否，地区动荡可能会让局势向对特朗普有利的方向倾斜。 高度两极分化的选民和大量虚假信息可能会再次让世界背上一个无能的骗子，他一心要消除美国的民主制度，并讨好俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京和匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班等独裁领导人。
如果特朗普回归，人们所能期待的最好结果可能是政治僵局，但前提是国会至少部分仍处于民主党控制之下。 然而，在全球范围内，随着特朗普冲动地让美国退出他不喜欢的协议和机构，国际协议和国际法治理念将很快成为强弩之末。
仔细研究数据表明，疫情后的通货膨胀主要不是由总需求过度引起的，而是由与疫情相关的供给短缺和需求变化引起的，2022年2月的俄乌冲突加剧了这种情况。
我们这些为这一立场辩护的人认为，通胀将得到控制，然后开始下降，尽管没有人能准确预测何时。事实确实如此。不幸的是，各国央行错误地将通胀的根源认定为需求过剩，并尽其所能抑制需求。这意味着快速而猛烈地提高利率。
尽管如此，美国是幸运的，因为这两个错误会相互抵消。财政政策有望比预期更加强劲，目前预计《通胀削减法案》将推动比预期多三倍的支出，但美联储过度收紧货币政策抵消了这一影响，实现了软着陆。
展望未来，美国的能源独立意味着高油价的主要作用是将收入从消费者手中再分配给石油生产商。诚然，这种累退性的结果可以通过精心设计的暴利税来扭转。
世界其他地方就没有那么幸运了。在欧洲，较弱的财政政策未能抵消紧缩的货币政策，能源价格上涨将是毁灭性的。在整个全球南方，许多国家债务过多，在全球经济放缓的情况下，这些债务可能会变得不可持续，特别是再加上高利率以及更高的石油和食品价格的话。
在加沙冲突爆发之前，我预计美国会软着陆，但世界其他地区会更艰难。现在，我预计到处都是困难，特朗普重返白宫的可能性增加。世界可能正在进入自上世纪30年代以来最危险的时期。
（作者系诺贝尔经济学奖得主，哥伦比亚大学教授，国际公司税改革独立委员会联合主席）
Joseph Stiglitz: 'The US presidential election may hinge on the 2024 economic outlook, which partly depends on how the conflagration in the Middle East evolves'
The likelihood of a Trump victory and a new oil shock, following the war between Israel and Hamas, creates greater risks for the global economy, according to the winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics.
Published on December 29, 2023, at 5:01 pm (Paris), updated on December 29, 2023, at 8:36 pm Time to 3 min. Lire en français
If one event dominates 2024, it will almost certainly be the US presidential election. Barring something unexpected, we are likely to see a rematch of Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump, with the outcome being perilously uncertain. One year out, polls in key swing states give Trump the advantage.
The election will matter not just for the United States but for the world. The outcome may hinge on the 2024 economic outlook, which in turn will partly depend on how the latest conflagration in the Middle East evolves. My best guess (and worst nightmare) is that Israel will continue to ignore international pleas for a ceasefire in Gaza, where 2.3 million Palestinians have been destitute for decades. What I saw during a visit in the late 1990s as the World Bank’s chief economist was heart-wrenching enough, and the situation has only gotten worse since Israel and Egypt imposed a full blockade 16 years ago in response to Hamas’s takeover of the enclave.
Regardless of the atrocities carried out by Hamas on October 7, the Arab street will not tolerate the brutality being visited on Gaza. Given this, it is hard to see how we can avoid a repeat of 1973, when OPEC’s Arab members organized an oil embargo against countries that had stood by Israel in the Yom Kippur War. This retaliatory measure would not really cost Middle Eastern oil producers, because the increase in prices would make up for the reduction in supplies. No wonder the World Bank and others have already been warning that oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel or higher. That would trigger another bout of supply-driven inflation, just as the post-pandemic inflation is being brought under control.
Tragedy
In this scenario, Biden will inevitably be blamed for the higher prices and accused of mismanaging the Middle East. It will hardly matter that the conflict was reignited by the Trump administration’s Abraham Accords and Israel’s lurch toward a de facto one-state solution. Justly or not, regional turmoil could tip the scale in Trump’s favor. A highly polarized electorate and mountains of disinformation could once again saddle the world with an incompetent liar who is bent on eliminating US democratic institutions and cozying up to authoritarian leaders like Russian President Vladimir Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
The best that one can hope for if Trump returns may be political gridlock, but only if Congress remains at least partly under Democratic control. Globally, however, international agreements and the very idea of international rule of law will quickly become spent forces, as Trump impulsively withdraws the US from accords and institutions not to his liking.
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