你应该对中国有多害怕

你应该对中国有多害怕

https://quincyinst.org/2023/08/07/heres-how-scared-of-china-you-should-be/

史蒂芬·沃尔特  2023年8月7日

当前有关美国大战略的争论中的一个关键问题是美国应优先考虑与中国的竞争。 美国应该投入多少资源（金钱、人力、时间、注意力等）来解决这个问题？ 中国是美国所面临的最大的地缘政治挑战，还是一个泥足巨人？ 对抗中国是否应该优先于所有其他问题（乌克兰、气候变化、移民、伊朗等），还是这只是众多问题中的一个，不一定是最重要的？

对于埃尔布里奇·科尔比（Elbridge Colby）等一些观察家来说，对抗中国是当务之急，美国领导人决不能让自己因乌克兰或任何其他外交政策问题而分心。 我偶尔的合著者约翰·米尔斯海默（John Mearsheimer）和我的哈佛大学同事格雷厄姆·艾利森（Graham Allison）似乎同样担心中国的挑战，特别是他们认为战争风险不断上升。

外交关系委员会最近成立的一个特别工作组认为，亚洲的军事趋势正在向有利于中国的方向转变，并呼吁加倍努力加强威慑，特别是在台湾海峡。 哈尔·布兰兹（Hal Brands）和迈克尔·贝克利（Michael Beckley）认为，中国的实力已接近顶峰，北京几乎无法阻止其最终衰落，但他们认为这一潜在的机会之窗值得警惕，而不是让人放心。 相比之下，我的昆西研究所同事迈克尔·斯温（Michael Swaine）和康奈尔大学学者杰西卡·陈·韦斯（Jessica Chen Weiss）认为我们夸大了中国构成的危险，并担心两国将陷入自我实现的猜疑螺旋，无论谁结束，都会让双方的处境变得更糟。 在上面。

这些不同的评估只是当今关于中国未来轨迹的观点的一小部分。 我不知道谁是对的——你也不知道——但我坦白承认，其中一些观察家对中国的了解比我多得多。 当然，我有自己的预感，但最让我感到沮丧的是，严肃的中国观察家群体还没有达成更多共识。 因此，作为一项公共服务（也许是为了给他们一点启发），以下是我对中国的五个主要问题。 这些问题的答案会告诉您很多关于您应该有多担心的信息。

第一个问题：中国经济的未来是光明的、黑暗的还是介于两者之间？

国际政治的力量最终取决于经济。 你可以随心所欲地谈论“软实力”、个人领导人的天才、“民族性格”的重要性、机会的作用等等，但底线是一个国家保卫自己和塑造其国家的能力。 更广阔的环境最终取决于其经济实力。 一个大国需要大量的人口，但也需要大量的财富和多元化、成熟的经济。 硬经济实力使一个国家能够制造大量先进武器并训练一流的军队，提供其他国家想要购买并可以丰富本国公民生活的商品和服务，并产生可用于建设的盈余。 在世界各地都有影响力。 被他人认可为有能力、在经济上取得成功也是赢得他们尊重、让他们听取你的建议并增强一个人的政治模式吸引力的好方法。

Here's How Scared of China You Should Be

https://quincyinst.org/2023/08/07/heres-how-scared-of-china-you-should-be/

Stephen Walt  August 7, 2023

A critical issue in current debates on U.S. grand strategy is the priority the country should place on competing with China. How many resources (money, people, time, attention, etc.) should the United States devote to this problem? Is China the greatest geopolitical challenge the United States has ever faced, or a colossus with feet of clay? Should countering China take precedence over all other problems (Ukraine, climate change, migration, Iran, etc.), or is it just one issue among many and not necessarily the most important?

For some observers—such as Elbridge Colby—countering China is the highest priority, and U.S. leaders must not allow themselves to be distracted by Ukraine or any other foreign-policy issues. My occasional co-author John Mearsheimer and my Harvard colleague Graham Allison seem equally concerned about the China challenge, and especially by what they see as a rising risk of war.

A recent Council on Foreign Relations task force argued that military trends in Asia were shifting in China’s favor and called for redoubled efforts to reinforce deterrence, especially in the Taiwan Strait. Hal Brands and Michael Beckley think China’s power is nearing its peak and there’s little Beijing can do to arrest its eventual decline, but they see this potential window of opportunity as a cause for alarm rather than reassurance. By contrast, my Quincy Institute colleague Michael Swaine and Cornell University scholar Jessica Chen Weiss think we are exaggerating the danger China poses and worry that the two states will fall into a self-fulfilling spiral of suspicion that will leave both worse off no matter who ends up on top.

These varied assessments are but a small sample of the opinions you can find about China’s future trajectory these days. I don’t know who’s right—and neither do you—and I freely admit that some of these observers know a lot more about China than I do. I have my hunches, of course, but I’m mostly frustrated that the community of serious China watchers hasn’t achieved more of a consensus. As a public service, therefore (and maybe to inspire them a little), here are my top five big questions about China. The answers to these questions would tell you a lot about how worried you should be.

No. 1: Is China’s economic future bright, dark, or somewhere in between?

Power in international politics ultimately rests upon economics. You can talk all you want about “soft power,” the genius of individual leaders, the importance of “national character,” the role of chance, and much more, but the bottom line is that a country's ability to defend itself and shape its broader environment ultimately depends on its economic strength. You need a large population to be a great power, but you also need substantial wealth and a diverse and sophisticated economy.

Hard economic power is what enables a state to build lots of sophisticated weapons and train a first-class military, provide goods and services that others want to buy and that can enrich its own citizens’ lives, and generate surpluses that can be used to build influence around the world. Being recognized by others as competent and economically successful is also a good way to earn their respect, get them to listen to your advice, and enhance the appeal of one’s political model.