崛起的中国如何重塑全球政治

崛起的中国如何重塑全球政治

https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/how-a-rising-china-has-remade-global-politics/

编辑 2023年7月17日 2023年7月19日

2021 年 6 月 28 日，中国国家主席习近平带领其他高级官员在中国共产党成立 100 周年前夕的一场盛大演出中宣誓入党誓言（美联社照片：Ng Hanguan）。

与任何其他单一发展一样，中国在过去二十年的崛起重塑了全球政治格局。 自2001年12月加入世界贸易组织以来，中国迅速将其经济从一个低成本的“世界工厂”转变为全球先进技术的领导者。 一路走来，它改变了全球供应链，也改变了国际外交，利用其成功成为亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲新兴经济体的主要贸易和发展伙伴。

但北京作为全球大国的崛起也造成了紧张局势。 早期对中国融入全球经济将导致国内自由化和国外温和化的预期已被证明过于乐观，特别是自习近平主席于 2012 年上台以来。相反，习近平监督了国内对异见的镇压，以支撑 扩大中国共产党对中国社会各个方面的控制。 必要的经济改革已被搁置一旁，而强制技术转让和对在华经营的外国公司的其他限制等不公平贸易做法导致了与美国的贸易战，并受到欧洲越来越多的批评。

与此同时，中国的“悄然崛起”已被更直言不讳地表达大国抱负和更加自信的国际姿态所取代，特别是在中国南海的领土争端方面。 再加上北京的军事现代化计划，亚洲和美国都注意到中国的经济实力将产生地缘政治影响。 COVID-19大流行最初为北京扩大影响力提供了机会，但随后人们对中国作为负责任的利益相关者的信誉以及推动其经济成功故事的供应链的未来提出了质疑。

由于习近平第三次连任中共中央总书记和国家主席，打破了中国改革开放期间创下的两届任期的先例，所有这些趋势现在可能会积聚势头。 但随着习近平将权力集中到自己手中，他也对中国的成功和失败承担了更大的责任。 随着挑战越来越多，很难保证中国的崛起不会因为北京与华盛顿竞争的外部压力或自身的错误和非受迫性错误而失去动力。 去年中国各地的抗议活动导致习近平放弃了严厉的“零新冠”政策，这提醒人们，尽管他和中共掌握了权力，但他们最终仍然要对中国人民负责。

WPR 详细报道了中国的崛起，并继续研究有关接下来会发生什么的关键问题。 面对人口和环境挑战以及与美国的竞争，中国能否维持其经济奇迹？ 在“一带一路”倡议似乎已经走到尽头的情况下，中国将在国际发展中发挥什么作用？ 中国是在寻求重塑基于规则的国际体系以更好地反映其利益，还是北京的目标是破坏和取代它？ 以下是 WPR 报道的一些要点。

我们最新的报道：全球秩序对于美国和中国来说可能已经足够大

中美竞争将塑造21世纪国际政治的进程。 因此，从美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯和中国国家主席习近平最近的会晤中可以收集到的有关双边关系状况的任何见解都值得评估。 收集到的见解令人鼓舞。

习近平领导下的中国

许多西方观察家认为，中国融入全球经济将导致国内自由化和国际温和化。 相反，在习近平的领导下，中国将经济崛起的成果装进自己的口袋，同时镇压前任领导人领导下出现的一些国内异议。 他现在已第三次担任党主席、国家主席，打破了中国改革开放以来两届任期的先例。 但随着国内外挑战不断堆积，他可能会发现当前的形势更加难以应对。

习近平史无前例的第三个国家主席任期对中国国内外的政治优先事项意味着什么，《习近平谢幕》。

中国最近的反封锁抗议活动与 1989 年在天安门广场达到顶峰的抗议活动有何不同和相似之处，中国短暂的零新冠抗议活动可能会产生持久影响
最近针对零新冠措施的抗议活动如何将北京的大流行信息暴露为宣传，在中国的新冠抗议活动中揭穿了习近平的胜利主义谎言
为什么习近平的权力巩固对中国乃至世界来说都是一个问题，《习近平对权力的掌控现在是中国最大的国内挑战》

中美关系与竞争

奥巴马政府结束后，随着对中国崛起的乐观情绪开始消退，美国外交政策界很快就需要对北京采取强硬态度达成了两党共识。 但在呼吁两国经济更广泛“脱钩”的背景下，前总统唐纳德·特朗普发起的贸易战并未取得决定性成果。 自上任以来，拜登政府试图在开放接触渠道的同时保持对北京的压力，但这些努力未能切实改善关系。 最近，拜登团队加大了对北京的压力，特别是在决定21世纪全球权力动态的技术竞争方面。

为什么美国必须重新考虑在东南亚与中国竞争的方式，因为美国正在东南亚输给中国
美国及其七国集团伙伴计划如何对抗中国和俄罗斯，《七国集团现在有对抗中国和俄罗斯的计划》

中美关系再次缓和，改善中美关系的前景如何

为什么华盛顿对中国的选择都不理想，美国对中国没有好的选择
外交政策与“一带一路”倡议
中国对发展中国家的援助和投资有着悠久的历史。 但其全球基础设施投资的“一带一路”倡议不仅进入了亚洲和非洲，还进入了欧洲。 北京越来越多地利用其经济伙伴关系产生的影响力来推进其政治利益，有时通过抵制和其他胁迫策略来欺凌与之有冲突的政府。 再加上北京咄咄逼人的“战狼”外交，现在正在引发反弹，损害中国的全球形象和影响力。

中国如何成为海湾国家可再生能源的重要合作伙伴，海湾国家将可再生能源的希望寄托在中国身上

中亚为何成为中国接触的战略地区，中国的魅力攻势凸显中亚地位的提升

中国如何重塑其作为国际发展伙伴的角色，中国正在寻求再次改变全球发展
为什么对中国在拉美影响力的担忧被夸大了，《美国夸大了中国在拉美的影响力》

中国的军事现代化——以及台湾

中国军队曾经是一支人员密集、装备落后的陆军，如今已成为一支能够在陆地、海上、空中、太空以及网络领域作战的军队。 其尖端设备越来越多地由中国国防工业提供，而中国国防工业本身已成为全球参与者。 这引起了邻国和竞争对手的担忧，特别是在涉及入侵台湾以武力统一台湾与大陆的前景时。

习近平第三任期内中国军事现代化的前景，《习近平：建设21世纪军队是中国崛起的关键》
为什么改善与台湾关系的时间不站在中国一边，等待蔡英文下台解决不了中国的“台湾问题”
为什么对中国入侵台湾的担忧被夸大了，中国从入侵台湾中没有任何好处
为什么中国恐吓台湾的企图适得其反，中国的武力威胁不会让台湾改变路线
探索更多 WPR 中国报道。

编者注：本文最初发表于 2019 年 5 月，并定期更新。

How a Rising China Has Remade Global Politics

https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/how-a-rising-china-has-remade-global-politics/

The Editors  Jul 17, 2023July 19, 2023

Chinese President Xi Jinping leads other top officials pledging their vows to the party during a gala show ahead of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing, June 28, 2021 (AP photo by Ng Han Guan).

As much as any other single development, China’s rise over the past two decades has remade the landscape of global politics. Beginning with its entry into the World Trade Organization in December 2001, China rapidly transformed its economy from a low-cost “factory to the world” to a global leader in advanced technologies. Along the way, it has transformed global supply chains, but also international diplomacy, leveraging its success to become the primary trading and development partner for emerging economies across Asia, Africa and Latin America.

But Beijing’s emergence as a global power has also created tensions. Early expectations that China’s integration into the global economy would lead to liberalization at home and moderation abroad have proven overly optimistic, especially since President Xi Jinping rose to power in 2012. Instead, Xi has overseen a domestic crackdown on dissent, in order to shore up and expand the Chinese Communist Party’s control over every aspect of Chinese society. Needed economic reforms have been put on the backburner, while unfair trade practices, such as forced technology transfers and other restrictions for foreign corporations operating in China, have resulted in a trade war with the U.S. and increasing criticism from Europe.

Meanwhile, China’s “quiet rise” has given way to more vocal expressions of great power aspirations and a more assertive international posture, particularly with regard to China’s territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Combined with Beijing’s military modernization program, that has put Asia, as well as the United States, on notice that China’s economic power will have geopolitical implications. The COVID-19 pandemic initially opened up opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence, but subsequently called into question both China’s credibility as a responsible stakeholder and the future of the supply chains that have fueled its economic success story.

All of these trends are now likely to gather momentum now that Xi has been reappointed to a third term as Communist Party chairman and Chinese president, breaking the two-term precedent set during China’s reform and opening period. But as he concentrates power into his own hands, Xi also assumes greater responsibility for China’s successes—and its failures. With challenges piling up, there is no guarantee that China’s rise won’t lose steam, due to outside pressure from Beijing’s competition with Washington or mistakes and unforced errors of its own. And last year’s protests across China, which led to the abandonment of Xi’s draconian “zero COVID” policies, served as a reminder that despite his and the CCP’s grip on power, they are still ultimately accountable to the Chinese people.

WPR has covered China’s rise in detail and continues to examine key questions about what will happen next. Can China sustain its economic miracle in the face of demographic and environmental challenges—and competition with the U.S.? What role will China play in international development now that its Belt and Road Initiative seems to have run its course? Is China seeking to reshape the rules-based international system to better reflect its interests, or is Beijing’s goal to undermine and replace it? Below are some of the highlights of WPR’s coverage.

Our Most Recent Coverage:

The Global Order Might Be Big Enough for the U.S. and China

The U.S.-China rivalry will shape the course of international politics in the 21st century. Hence, any insights that can be gleaned on the state of bilateral relations from the recent meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese President Xi Jinping are worth evaluating. And the insights to be gleaned are encouraging.

China Under Xi Jinping

Many observers in the West assumed that integrating China into the global economy would lead to domestic liberalization and international moderation. Instead, under Xi, China has pocketed the gains of its economic rise, while cracking down on what little domestic dissent had emerged under previous leaders. He’s now been appointed to a third term as party chairman and president, breaking the two-term precedent set since China’s reform and opening period. But with challenges piling up at home and abroad, he might find the current landscape harder to navigate.

• What Xi’s unprecedented third term as president means for China’s political priorities at home and abroad, in Xi Takes a Highly Choreographed Curtain Call
• How the recent anti-lockdown protests in China were both different than and similar to the protests of 1989 that culminated in Tiananmen Square, in China’s Short-Lived Zero-COVID Protests Could Have a Lasting Impact
• How the recent protests against zero-COVID measures exposed Beijing’s pandemic messaging as propaganda, in China’s COVID Protests Put the Lie to Xi’s Triumphalism
• Why Xi’s consolidation of power is a problem for China—and the world, in Xi’s Grip on Power Is Now China’s Biggest Domestic Challenge

U.S.-China Relations and Competition

As optimism about China’s rise began to fade at the end of the Obama administration, the U.S. foreign policy community quickly embraced a bipartisan consensus on the need to get tough on Beijing. But former President Donald Trump’s trade war, amid calls for a broader “decoupling” of the two countries’ economies, did not deliver decisive results. Since taking office, the Biden administration has tried to maintain pressure on Beijing while opening channels of engagement, but those efforts have failed to meaningfully improve relations. More recently, the Biden team has increased the pressure on Beijing, particularly when it comes to competition over the technologies that will determine global power dynamics in the 21st century.

• Why the U.S. has to rethink its approach to competing with China in Southeast Asia, in The U.S. Is Losing Ground to China in Southeast Asia
• How the U.S. and its G-7 partners plan to counter China and Russia, in The G-7 Now Has a Plan for Countering China and Russia
• What the prospects are for improving U.S.-China relations, in The U.S. and China Take Another Stab at Thawing Relations
• Why Washington’s options for how to approach China are all suboptimal, in The U.S. Has No Good Options for How to Approach China

Foreign Policy & the Belt and Road Initiative

China has a long history of aid and investment in the developing world. But its Belt and Road Initiative of global infrastructure investment made inroads not only in Asia and Africa, but also Europe. Beijing is increasingly using the leverage its economic partnerships generate to advance its political interests, at times by using boycotts and other coercive tactics to bully governments that cross it. That, combined with Beijing’s aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy, is now creating a backlash that is undermining China’s global image—and influence.

• How China has become a key partner for the Gulf states on renewable energy, in The Gulf States Are Pinning Their Renewable Energy Hopes on China
• Why Central Asia has become a strategic region for Chinese engagement, in China’s Charm Offensive Highlights Central Asia’s Rising Profile
• How China is reshaping its role as an international development partner, in China Is Looking to Transform Global Development—Again
• Why fears of China’s influence in Latin America are overblown, in The U.S. Is Overstating China’s Influence in Latin America

China’s Military Modernization—and Taiwan

Once primarily a personnel-heavy and ill-equipped land army, the Chinese military has overhauled itself into a force capable of fighting on land and sea, in the air and space, as well as in the cyber domain. And its cutting-edge equipment is increasingly supplied by a Chinese defense industry that has itself become a global player. That has raised concerns among neighbors and rivals, particularly when it comes to the prospect of an invasion of Taiwan to unify the island with the mainland by force.

• What’s ahead for China’s military modernization during Xi’s third term, in For Xi, Building a 21st-Century Military Is Key to China’s Rise
• Why time isn’t on China’s side when it comes to improving ties with Taiwan, in Waiting for Tsai’s Departure Won’t Solve China’s ‘Taiwan Problem’
• Why fears of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan are overblown, in China Has Nothing to Gain From Invading Taiwan
• Why China’s attempts to intimidate Taiwan are backfiring, in China’s Saber-Rattling Won’t Make Taiwan Shift Course

Explore more of WPR’s China coverage.

Editor’s note: This article was originally published in May 2019 and is regularly updated.