不回头 美国和欧洲正在进入新的贸易时代

“我们不会回头”：美国和欧洲正在进入新的贸易时代

 

作者：亚当·贝苏迪 06/03/2023

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/03/us-europe-china-trade-00099954

这一巨大转变意味着气候和科技等问题将与贸易更加紧密地交织在一起。

美国商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多、美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯、美国贸易代表凯瑟琳·戴、欧盟内部市场专员蒂埃里·布雷顿等人于 2023 年 5 月 31 日在瑞典吕勒奥举行会议。

美国和欧盟之间的贸易关系过去取决于一些问题，例如美国人是否可以使用戈贡佐拉等欧洲名称来标记他们的奶酪，或者欧洲人是否应该购买用氯清洗的美国鸡肉。

现在的焦点更加关乎生存——这可能会让贸易争端更难解决。

人们记忆中的第一次大流行迫使人们重新思考全球供应链。 目前，大量投资正投入到应对气候变化的努力中。 人工智能和下一代 6G 通信网络等新技术可能会颠覆经济和政府的运作方式。

这一切的背后是：对来自中国的竞争日益焦虑，以及欧盟和美国越来越关注支撑国内产业而不是鼓励全球进口。

“这是一个不同的世界：气候、非市场经济政策和做法、供应链脆弱性是首要考虑的问题，”今年退休的美国与欧洲贸易问题长期首席谈判代表丹尼尔·穆拉尼(Daniel Mullaney)说。

美中关系几乎没有解冻的迹象

作者：史蒂文·奥弗利、费利姆·凯恩和道格·帕尔默

本周美国和欧盟官员在瑞典举行的会议上展现了这一戏剧性的转变，这意味着气候和科技等问题将与贸易更加紧密地交织在一起，随着双方都在用过时的规则手册进行竞争，使得合作变得更具挑战性。

“过去 10 年的演变是由许多不同因素推动的，我们不会回头，”穆拉尼说。 “这不是上届政府下台的问题，现在每个人都可以回到以前的状态并松一口气。 甚至在上届政府之前，情况就已经发生了变化，包括在欧洲。”

拜登政府期间启动的一个新论坛正试图弥合这一差距。 在瑞典举行会议的美国-欧盟贸易和技术理事会正在采取比之前更加外向的方针，旨在增加美国和欧盟之间的贸易，美国和欧盟的 27 个成员国作为一个整体进行贸易谈判。 其中包括更多讨论双方如何在对未来经济增长至关重要的技术和产业的标准和法规方面进行合作。

一群高级官员周三结束了在吕勒奥举行的第四次 TTC 会议。吕勒奥是北极圈上方的一座小型工业城市，是欧洲“绿色”炼钢中心，也是美国科技巨头 Meta 数据服务器的所在地。

不到十年前，双方奉行完全不同的战略。 跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系是前总统巴拉克·奥巴马领导下启动的传统自由贸易谈判，将美国和欧盟的商业利益置于首要地位和中心。 这些谈判最终以失败告终，因为欧洲领导人面临着巨大的政治压力——草根运动推动了欧洲领导人对与美国更紧密的经济一体化日益感到担忧。

拜登正在利用底特律推销他对全球经济的愿景。 它还展示了其中的陷阱。
在前总统唐纳德·特朗普的领导下，美国提高钢铁和铝进口关税后，两国展开针锋相对的关税战，贸易关系跌至低点。 作为报复，欧盟对波本威士忌和哈雷戴维森摩托车等美国标志性出口产品征收关税。 特朗普还威胁要对欧洲汽车进口征收高关税。 双方最终就一小部分关税削减达成一致。

自自由贸易谈判破裂和特朗普时代的关税狂潮以来，解决传统贸易摩擦的政治意愿已不复存在。 长期存在的贸易问题包括欧盟对转基因作物的限制以及美国限制欧洲公司竞标政府项目的“购买美国货”要求。

总部位于布鲁塞尔的智库欧洲国际政治经济中心主任霍苏克·李-牧山表示：“对于其中许多刺激性问题，我们只是找到了一种忍受它们的方法。”

拜登政府没有回到传统的关税谈判，而是采取了“以工人为中心”的贸易政策。 它没有推动贸易伙伴采用更适合美国科技公司的数字法规或向更多美国投资开放市场，而是重点关注提高外国劳动力和环境标准，为美国工人创造公平的竞争环境。 由于担心政治影响，这一切的发生并没有提供更多进入美国利润丰厚的消费市场的机会。

与此同时，本应成为新时代制定全球商业新规则的神经中枢的世界贸易组织却失去了影响力。 许多人指责欧盟和美国这两个最重要的成员未能保持这个总部位于日内瓦的组织的相关性。 这个笨拙、基于共识的组织在本世纪的大部分时间里一直在努力制定一个框架来应对全球经济的新挑战，包括可持续发展和解决中国的行为问题。

“当中国加入世贸组织时，全世界都非常高兴，因为大多数人认为中国会改变，但在某种程度上，是中国改变了世贸组织，”前欧盟驻美国大使雨果·帕门(Hugo Paemen)表示。

本周在瑞典，参加最近一次 TTC 会议的国务卿安东尼·布林肯强调，最近在几百公里外发现了欧洲最大的稀土金属矿床。 | 谢尔盖·格里特/美联社照片

由于没有有效的全球或双边贸易论坛来解决争端，双方目前正在应对与新气候政策相关的日益加剧的贸易紧张局势。 其汽车公司基本上被排除在美国针对电动汽车的主要税收抵免之外，欧盟对此感到愤怒。 国会有意制定法律，排除外国生产的汽车、电池和矿物，除非它们来自自由贸易伙伴。 尚未与美国达成自由贸易协定的欧盟目前正在谈判一项协议，如果汽车使用在欧盟提取或加工的所谓关键矿物，那么欧洲公司将至少部分受益于税收抵免。 用于制造电池。

本周在瑞典，参加最近一次 TTC 会议的国务卿安东尼·布林肯强调，最近在几百公里外发现了欧洲最大的稀土金属矿床。

“这表明瑞典作为一个矿业国家有着光明的未来——对于绿色转型来说，这再次变得越来越重要，”他说。

同样，美国公司也对欧盟的碳边界调整机制表示担忧。 该措施允许欧盟对来自欧洲国家没有可比碳定价的国家的进口产品征收费用，从而拉平这一领域。

对于 TTC 是否会拿出具体成果来解决这些问题或阻止未来出现任何分歧，人们仍然高度怀疑。

“你必须用你现有的食材来烹饪，现在就是 TTC。 他们正在努力充分利用它。 [但]数量并不多，”现任彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员的前欧盟贸易委员塞西莉亚·马尔姆斯特罗姆说道。

跨大西洋政策制定者未来面临的挑战是如何使过去的贸易模式适应世界的新问题和全球化的新观念。

“我们仍然会举行拳击比赛，”李-牧山说。 “但至少我们可以同意，我们将停止互相攻击。”

道格·帕尔默为本报告做出了贡献。

 

'We're not going back': The U.S. and Europe are entering a new trade era

By ADAM BEHSUDI  06/03/2023 

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/03/us-europe-china-trade-00099954 

The dramatic shift means that issues like climate and tech will grow more intertwined with trade.

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, European Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton and others are seen at a meeting in Lulea, Sweden, May 31, 2023. 

The trade relationship between the U.S. and the EU used to hinge on issues such as whether Americans could label their cheese using European names like Gorgonzola — or whether Europeans should buy U.S. chicken washed in chlorine.

The focus now is more existential—and could make trade disputes more difficult to resolve.

The first pandemic in living memory has forced a rethink of global supply chains. Massive investments are now pouring into climate change efforts. New technologies like artificial intelligence and next generation 6G communication networks threaten to upend how economies and governments function.

Running beneath it all: growing anxiety over competition from China and an increasing focus in both the EU and U.S. on propping up domestic industries instead of encouraging global imports.

“This is a different world: Climate, non-market economy policies and practices, supply chain vulnerabilities are top of mind,” said Daniel Mullaney, who retired this year as the United States’ long-time top negotiator on trade issues with Europe.

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The dramatic shift, which was on display at meetings between U.S. and EU officials in Sweden this week, means that issues like climate and tech will grow more intertwined with trade, making cooperation more challenging as each side competes with an outdated rulebook.

“The evolution over the last 10 years was driven by a lot of different factors, and we’re not going back,” Mullaney said. “It’s not a question of the last administration is out and now everyone can go back to the way things were before and heave a sigh of relief. Things were already changing, including in Europe, even before the last administration.”

A new forum started during the Biden administration is attempting to bridge the gap. The U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council, the body that met in Sweden, is taking a more outward-looking approach than previous efforts aimed at increasing commerce between the U.S. and EU, whose 27 member nations negotiate trade as a single bloc. That includes more discussion on how the two sides can cooperate on the standards and regulations of technologies and industries that will be central to future economic growth.

A group of high-level officials wrapped up their fourth TTC meeting on Wednesday in Luleå, a small industrial city above the Arctic Circle that is a hub for “green” steelmaking in Europe and home to U.S. tech giant Meta’s data servers.

Less than a decade ago, the two sides were pursuing an entirely different strategy. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, a traditional free trade negotiation started under former President Barack Obama, put U.S. and EU commercial interests front and center. Those talks eventually died as European leaders came under intense political pressure–driven by a grassroots movement that viewed closer economic integration with the U.S. with growing alarm.

 

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Under former President Donald Trump, trade relations hit a low point as the two sides entered into a tit-for-tat tariff fight after the U.S. raised tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum. The EU retaliated by slapping duties on iconic American exports like bourbon and Harley Davidson motorcycles. Trump also threatened to hit imports of European automobiles with high tariffs. The two sides eventually agreed on a small package of tariff cuts.

Since the collapse of free trade talks and the tariff frenzy of the Trump era, there’s no longer the political will to address traditional trade frictions. Long-standing trade issues range from EU restrictions on genetically modified crops to U.S. “Buy American” requirements that limit European companies from bidding on government projects.

“On many of these irritants, we just found a way to live with them,” said Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, director of the European Center for International Political Economy, a Brussels-based think tank.

Rather than return to the traditional give-and-take of tariff negotiations, the Biden administration has embraced a “worker-centered” trade policy. Instead of pushing trading partners to adopt digital regulations more amenable to U.S. tech companies or open their markets to more U.S. investment, it’s heavily focused on raising foreign labor and environmental standards to level the playing field for U.S. workers. That’s all happening without offering the reward of greater access to America’s lucrative consumer market for fear of political repercussions.

Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization, which should be the nerve center for establishing new global rules for commerce in a new era, has lost its clout. Many blame both the EU and the U.S. as two of its most prominent members for failing to keep the Geneva-based organization relevant. The unwieldy, consensus-based organization has struggled for most of this century to come up with a framework for new challenges in the global economy, including sustainability and addressing China’s behavior.

“The world was very happy when China came to the WTO because most people thought China was going to change, but it’s China that changed the WTO up to a certain point,” said Hugo Paemen, a former EU ambassador to the U.S.

In Sweden this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was attending the most recent TTC meeting, highlighted that Europe’s largest deposit of rare earth metals was recently discovered a few hundred kilometers away. | Sergei Grits/AP Photo

 

Without an effective global or bilateral trade forum to litigate disputes, the two sides are now dealing with rising trade tensions related to new climate policies. The EU was angered after its auto companies were essentially cut out of a major U.S. tax credit for electric vehicles. Congress purposefully crafted the law to exclude foreign-produced vehicles, batteries and minerals unless they are from a free-trade partner. The EU, which lacks a free trade deal with the U.S., is now negotiating a deal that would allow European companies to benefit at least partially off the tax credit if the automobile uses so-called critical minerals extracted or processed in the EU that could be used to make batteries.

In Sweden this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was attending the most recent TTC meeting, highlighted that Europe’s largest deposit of rare earth metals was recently discovered a few hundred kilometers away.

“It shows that Sweden has a bright future as a mining nation – increasingly important, again, for the green transition,” he said.

Similarly, U.S. companies have expressed concern over the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The measure allows the bloc to impose a fee on imports of products that come from countries without comparable carbon pricing found in European countries, thus leveling the field.

Skepticism remains high over whether the TTC will deliver concrete results to address these issues or head off any future disagreements.

“You have to cook with the ingredients that you have, which right now is TTC. And they’re trying to make the best out of it. [But] it’s not a lot,” said former European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström, who is now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The challenge for transatlantic policymakers going forward is how to make the trade model of the past fit with the world’s new problems and new perception of globalization.

“We’re still going to have boxing matches,” said Lee-Makiyama. “But at least we can agree we’re going to stop kicking each other under the belt.”

Doug Palmer contributed to this report.