John Mearsheimer 21世纪的大国政治

21世纪的大国政治

2022 年 11 月 8 日在匈牙利布达佩斯录制

从希腊和罗马时代，到英国和法国，再到今天的美国，帝国的兴衰有起有落。有些帝国持续了几个世纪，有些帝国只持续了几十年。 总有新的势力想要称霸。 对许多人来说，军事实力与经济福祉密切相关。 但一旦收银机开始清空，整体下滑也就不远了。 显然，21世纪的全球主导地位是美国和中国之间的较量。 俄罗斯虽然危险，但相对较弱，其在乌克兰的无能就可见一斑。 国家情报委员会是美国顶级政府机构，负责发布预测全球趋势的报告。 毫不奇怪，它将北京视为华盛顿的“潜在竞争对手”，“可能会拥有最大的经济体，并在 2030 年之前几年超过美国”。

录制于国立公共服务大学。

Great Power Politics in the 21st Century

Program #MEAJ002. Recorded in Budapest, Hungary on November 8, 2022.

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Empires rise and fall from Greek and Roman times down to the British and the French to the present-day U.S. Some lasted for centuries others mere decades. There are always new powers that want to rule the roost. For many, military power is closely linked to economic well-being. But once the cash register starts emptying overall decline is not far behind. It’s clear that in the 21st-century global dominance is a contest between the U.S. and China. Russia is dangerous but is relatively weak, witness its ineptitude in Ukraine. The National Intelligence Council is a top-level U.S. government agency that produces reports projecting global trends. Not surprisingly, it identifies Beijing as a “potential rival” to Washington that “will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the U.S. a few years before 2030.”

Recorded at the National University of Public Service.