Carlos Pascual 在莱文沃斯堡陆军指挥和参谋学院的毕业典礼上作了一次演讲。Pascual 激励毕业生努力使美国在全球化世界中的领导地位的远景成为现实。
Caldwell 中将，谢谢你今天邀请我来到这里，也谢谢你的领导才能和刚才对我的介绍。请容许我向 Arter 中将、Johndrow 参谋军士长、Cardon 准将，以及最重要的，陆军指挥和参谋学院的诸位毕业生及家属致以诚挚的谢意。
感谢你们让我今天参加你们的典礼，并且向本届毕业班来自美国和其他各国的 960 位学子发表致词。
我来到这里是因为我相信这是一所致力于创造和平的学院。当然你们的根本使命还是保卫我们的国家：真正说来是保卫你们所有人来自的 60 多个国家，然而在我们所处的世界，保护国家利益同融入全球共同体是密不可分的。
70 多年前，温斯顿•邱吉尔这样劝告美国：
“如果一个国家不能够面对世界所面临的问题，不能够深切体味世界所经历的痛苦，不能够为这样伟大的事业所激励，那么这个国家就无法在各个方面真正成为文明世界的领袖。如果这些在过去已经被证实，勿庸置疑，将来也同样会是真理。美国人民无法逃避对于世界的责任。”
如果说 70 年前这段话是对的，那么现在更加正确无疑。我给你们读一段巴拉克•奥巴马的《无畏的希望》中的话，写这本书的时候他的总统志向还只是一个遥远的梦想。
“当杜鲁门、艾奇逊、凯南和马歇尔坐在一起设计二战后的秩序体系时，他们参考的框架是曾经在 19 和 20 世纪初占主导地位的大国间的竞争…美国最大的威胁来自纳粹德国或者苏俄这样的扩张主义国家…而这样的世界已经不复存在了。”
“[今天]不断增加的威胁…主要来自全球经济版图中还没有承认国际‘规则’的空白地带…绝大多数人贫穷、无法接受教育并且与全球信息网络脱离的地方；统治当局害怕全球化会弱化他们对该地区的统治力…世界各地越发紧密的互相联系为那些想毁灭这种世界的人赋予了力量。”
我提出这些观点并不是为了造成各位对全球化的恐惧，而是为了灌输对全球化力量的重视，对如何参与全球化的了解，以及对于我们独力改变世界的能力局限性的一种卑微感。
在我们身处的这个世界，资本、技术、思想和人都没有国界。正是这一种超越国界、利用国际技能、进入各国市场的能力帮助中国和印度数亿人摆脱贫穷，同时也为美国创造了空前的财富，甚至促进了全球推动和平的能力。许多人忘记了这样一个事实：自从冷战结束后，通过联合国这类组织而达成的合作已经将各国的冲突数量降低了一半。
不过，全球化也有着我们未能掌握的黑暗一面，而作为一个国家，作为一个全球共同体，我们尚未成功。所以，我们的世界才会这样：
- 美国的房地产危机转变成为经济危机，进而发展成为全球经济衰退，美国失业率超过 9%，中国下岗 2000 万职工，像马里、乍得和秘鲁山区这样的地方，最穷的穷人已经被推到了生死边缘。
- 工业革命曾为数十亿人带来过汽车、电视和冰箱，但同时也确立了使用化石燃料的模式，而我们都知道正是这一模式使得大气中的碳浓度威胁了生命。
- 核技术为无碳发电的未来创造了空间，但是不受控制的核扩散也使得北韩和伊朗等国家成为世界和平稳定的威胁。
在这样一个超越国界的世界，任何一个国家都无法独力获得成功，同样，任何一个国家也无法脱离全球问题。
这就是为什么奥巴马总统表示，美国的安全同全球安全不可分离的原因。我们的未来交织在一起。
不过，我们的挑战，也是你们的挑战，在于了解如何实现这些关全球环境的长远目标。我给你们提供一些意见：
首先，国际挑战的规模比我们已知的任何挑战都要大：
- 我们现在正面临危机。你们都很清楚，尤其是某些危机，比如阿富汗/巴基斯坦、伊拉克、伊朗北韩、中东；
- 对全球稳定的地理政治挑战：有成效地应对中国和印度的崛起；强硬好勇的俄罗斯；在拉美地区，一股改变的动力有时使美国退到次要地位；
- 存在性或全球性挑战：经济危机、气候变化、恐怖主义、核扩散，以及国家内部和国家间的冲突。
这份日程表上有哪些挑战能够延后？我们可以把哪些搁置一边？几乎没有。所以，我们的国家以及在座的每个人都要了解这样一个重要的知识：
这个世界的领导地位意味着同其他国家建立合作，为了和平繁荣的世界共同分担这个重担。这需要培养对我们国家的尊重，而这又意味着树立我们维护法制的光辉典范，这样我们才能利用这些合作和关系促进我们的国家利益。如果这一点对于美国是正确的，那么对于今天在座各位代表的各个国家同样也是正确的。
这些不是唯心的幻想。目前，建立和保持有效合作与世界尊重的能力已经成为了新的美国现实主义。
我还要给你们提供一个意见。我们面临的问题是互相联系的，它们之间的联系决定了我们的未来，但同时，如果我们不能了解这些决定我们现实的互相关联的力量，我们就无法找到解决的办法。
经济危机不仅仅是裁员，它还影响每个国家的碳排放标价，这是一项至关重要的举措，它能够鼓励节约和创新，从而阻止现在已成为洪水、干旱、疾病和迁移原因的环境变化。
气候变化正在加剧对稀有资源的竞争，尤其是土地和水源，这些都可能导致未来的冲突。我们可以确定的是，如果不解决土地和水源的根本稀缺，就永远无法解决达尔福尔这类的冲突。
至于那些好奇我们为什么要关注这些遥远冲突的人，请不要忘记，我们在美国领土上经历过的最大冲突正是来自世界上最贫穷的国家之一，阿富汗。
我们要从中学到什么？
如果要了解未来威胁来自何方，我们就不能按照面前静止的事实去评估现在的世界，而要衡量全球力量的相互作用。
在我们对未来作好准备和寻找目前问题的解决办法同时，我们必须了解目前威胁的军事规模与安全环境的其他社会、经济、文化和宗教因素有何关联。不过我要提醒一点：我们的军队并不是用来解决所有这些问题的，而是作为促进民政当局投资和建设这些功能的道德和推动作用。
可以这样简单测试我们是不是走向正确的方向，也可以测试我们是否对自己诚实，那就是关注当地现实。比如，询问实现阿富汗南部社会安定团结需要怎样做，再比如保持这样的安定团结需要怎样做，对于在座的各位，我想你们都能看到这样的现实：
- 如果不建立当地配套力量，无论是军队、警察、政府官员、企业，我们无法维持成功。
- 建立这样的力量意味着将我们的人力投入到他们的人之中，这就是为什么我们派遣 4000 名军人培训和指导阿富汗警察和军队的原因
- 不过，我知道对于我们政府的民政投入能力你们会非常失望，也许已经失望了——不是因为不希望在那里投入，而是因为我们没有足够的人力。看看这个鲜明的对比：4000 名派遣到阿富汗的军事教官，已相等于被派到全球各地6500名外交人员的三分之二。
作为一个国家，我们已经开始着手一些重要的改革。奥巴马总统要求在 2010 财年增加 11% 的海外事务预算。这只是一个温和的开始。还需要在座各位对国家安全的支持，从美国的心脏地带实现这一点，并且继续发展这一能力。
在我们的心中，我相信我们必须谦逊但并不悲观。我们正处于一个空前的时刻。
我曾经游历过世界各地，在任何一个地方我都没有看到对美国领导地位的抵制。相反，我看到了对基于合作和分担投资的领导方式的改变渴望。这符合我们的利益。
在美国，一轮又一轮的民调显示，美国人希望国际合作与协作。作为一个国家，我们直觉意识到了同其他国家合作以及分担非常时刻重担的重要性。
坚守法治是实现可持续合作关系的核心方法。坚守法治是发挥我们的优势而不是缺点，这正是我们在国内变得强大的原因，而我们在国际上也应乐于看到对法治的遵从。
是的，我们会遇到困难，全球环境也意味着全球竞争。有人要伤害我们及世界上其他好人。我们在伦敦、马德里、孟买、巴基斯坦和中东许多城市各地已经看过了恐怖分子制造的惨剧。
但是这不能阻止我们转变关于这个跨国界世界的观点，使我们的能力现代化，培养我们协同合作的能力。我们的优势在于我们的人民，我们的创造力、诚实、正义、辛勤工作投入，以及我们愿意与全球共同努力的道德信念，那就是为了我们的家庭和下一代。我们的希望在于你们这样的人，这才是我们信心的来源。
陆军指挥和参谋学院 09-1 班，祝贺你们。祝你们，也祝你们的家人成功。我们的国家，今天在座各位所代表的国家，感谢你们。
American Leadership in a Global Century
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/american-leadership-in-a-global-century/
Carlos Pascual June 12, 2009 @CarlosEPascual
Lieutenant General Caldwell, thank you for inviting me here today, for your leadership, and for your kind introduction. Let me extend my thanks as well to Lieutenant General Arter, Command Sergeant Major Johndrow, Brigadier General Cardon, and most importantly to the families and graduates of the Command and General Staff College.
Thank you for allowing me to join you today and to pay tribute to this graduating class – all 960 of you – from the United States and abroad.
I wanted to come here because I believe this is an institution dedicated to building peace. Of course your fundamental mission is to protect our nation: indeed to protect the more than 60 nations from which all of you hail, but we live in a world where protecting our national interests cannot be separated from engaging in our global community.
Seven decades ago, Winston Churchill exhorted the United States this way:
“One cannot rise to be in many ways the leading community in the civilized world without being involved in its problems, without being convulsed by its agonies and inspired by its causes. If this has been proved in the past, as it has been, it will become indisputable in the future. The people of the United States cannot escape world responsibility.”
And if that was true seven decades ago, it is even truer today. Let me read to you from Barack Obama’s Audacity of Hope – written when his presidential aspirations were still a distant vision.
“When Truman , Acheson, Kennan, and Marshall sat down to design the architecture of the post-World War II order, their frame of reference was the competition between the great powers that had dominated the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries….America’s greatest threats came from expansionist states like Nazi Germany or Soviet Russia….That world no longer exists.
“[Today] the growing threat…comes primarily from those parts of the world on the margins of the global economy where the international “rules of the road” have not taken hold ….lands in which an overwhelming majority of the population is poor, uneducated, and cut off from the global information grid; places where the rulers fear globalization will loosen their hold on power….The very interconnectivity that increasingly binds the world together has empowered those who would tear that world down.”
I raise these perspectives not to engender a fear of globalization, but to instill a respect for its power, an understanding of how to engage it, and a sense of humility about the limits of our capacity to act alone in shaping it.
We live in a world where capital, technology, ideas and people know no boundaries. It is this very capacity to transcend borders, to tap world capabilities, and to have access to world markets that has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty in China and India. It has created unprecedented wealth here in the United States. It has even contributed to a global capacity to advance peace. Forgotten by many is this reality: that cooperation through bodies like the United Nations has cut in half the number of conflicts within states since the end of the Cold War.
But globalization has its dark side when we fail to govern it, and here we have yet to succeed – as a nation, or as a global community. Hence, we have:
- A world where a housing crisis in the U.S. turned into a financial crisis and then a global recession with unemployment over 9 percent in the U.S., with 20 million displaced in China, with the poorest of the poor pushed to the margins of survival in places like Mali, Chad, or the mountains of Peru.
- A world where the industrial revolution has brought cars, televisions and refrigerators to billions, but it has entrenched a pattern of fossil fuel use that is causing carbon concentrations in our atmosphere that threatens life as we know it.
- A world where nuclear technology has created capacity for a carbon-free future in producing electricity, but the uncontrolled proliferation of this technology has made countries, such as North Korea and Iran a menace to world peace and stability.
In this world that transcends borders, no one nation can succeed along, yet no nation can isolate itself from global problems.
This is why President Obama says American security is inseparable from global security. Our futures are intertwined.
But our challenge, your challenge, is to understand how to make operational these perspectives on our global environment. Let me leave you with a few observations:
First, the scale of international challenges is greater than any we have ever known:
- We face today crises. You know them well – in some cases too well: Afghanistan/Pakistan, Iraq, Iran, North Korea, the Middle East;
- Geopolitical challenges to global stability: managing productively the rise of China and India; an aggressively assertive Russia; and throughout Latin America, a dynamic of change where the United States has become at times a secondary player; and
- Existential or global challenges: the financial crisis, climate change, terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and conflict within and between states.
What on this agenda can we put off? What can we place aside? Very little. Thus, an important lesson for our country and for everyone one of us: leadership in this world means to build partnerships with other nations to share this burden for the sake of a peaceful and prosperous world. It requires building respect for our nation – and that means setting a shining example in our adherence to the rule of law – so that we can leverage these partnerships and relationships to succeed in advancing our national interests. If this is true for the United States, it is equally true for every nation represented here today.
These are not idealistic fantasies. Today, the ability to develop and sustain effective partnerships and the respect of the world has become the new American realism.
I leave you with this observation as well. The problems that we face are interconnected – their interaction defines our future – but at the same time we cannot find solutions unless we understand the interlinked forces that are defining our reality.
The economic crisis is not only shedding jobs, it affects the capacity of every nation to put a price on carbon, a measure seen as critical to encouraging conservation and innovation, and thus deterring the environmental changes that even now are a cause of floods, draughts, disease and migration.
Climate change is exacerbating competition for scarce resources – especially land and water – that could drive future conflicts. One thing we know for sure is that without addressing the underlying scarcities of land and water there are no permanent solutions to conflict in places like Darfur.
And for those who wonder why we should care about distant conflict, let us not forget that the most significant strife we have ever had on American territory was orchestrated from one of the poorest countries in the world – Afghanistan.
What do we learn from this?
Let’s not assess the world based on the static realities before us – but seek instead to gauge the interactive effects of global forces if we are to understand where future threats may emerge.
As we prepare for the future and search for solutions to today’s problems, we must understand how the military dimensions of today’s threats intersect with the other social, economic, cultural and religious factors driving the security environment. But I also caution this: it is not for our militaries to solve all of these problems, but to be a conscience and driver to our civilian authorities to invest and build these capabilities.
As a basic test of whether we are headed in the right direction – to test whether we are honest with ourselves – focus on local realities. Ask what it will take to deliver security and prosperity in a community in Southern Afghanistan, for example, and then ask what will make it sustainable – and here I suspect you’ll find these realities:
- We can’t sustain success without building the capacity of local counterparts – whether they be military, police, government officials, entrepreneurs.
- Building that capacity means an investment of our people in their people – that is why we are sending 4,000 troops to train and mentor Afghan police and military
- But I know you will be sorely disappointed, and perhaps have already been, in our nation’s capacity to invest from the civilian side of our government – not because the will is not there, but because we don’t have the people. Look at this stark contrast: the 4,000 military trainers we are sending to Afghanistan constitute two-thirds of 6,500 foreign service officers across the world.
As a nation, we have begun to make some critical changes. President Obama requested an 11 percent increase in his FY 2010 Foreign Affairs budget. It is a modest beginning. It will take the support of those of you with a stake in the nation’s security, and from America’s heartland, to achieve this and to continue to grow this capacity.
In our hearts, I believe we must be humble, but not bleak. We have a unique moment.
I have traveled the world – nowhere have I seen a rejection of American leadership. Instead, there is a thirst for a change in the style of leadership based on partnerships and shared investments. That is in our interest.
In the United States, poll after poll shows that the American people want international partnerships and cooperation. Intuitively, we as a nation understand the wisdom of working with others and sharing the burden of extraordinary times.
A core means to achieving sustainable partnerships is adherence to the rule of law. That plays to our strength – not our weakness – it is what makes us strong at home and we should welcome this internationally as well.
Yes, we will encounter problems – a global environment also means global competition. There are those who mean to hurt us and good people throughout the world. We have seen tragic acts of terror in London, Madrid, Mumbai and many cities in Pakistan and throughout the Middle East.
But we cannot be deterred in transforming our perspectives on this transnational world, modernizing our capabilities, and building our capacity to act together. Our strength is in our people – our creativity, honesty, decency, commitment to hard work, and a moral belief that we are in these global endeavors together – for the sake of our families and the generations that come behind us. Our hope is in people like you, and that is a source of confidence.
Command and Staff College Class of 09-1, congratulations. Good speed to you, and to your families. You have the gratitude of our nation, and every nation represented here today.
