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中东:美国再见,欢迎中国?

(2023-06-08 06:26:50) 下一个

中东:美国再见,欢迎中国?

马尔万·比沙拉 马尔万·比沙拉  2023年6月7日

沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼于 2022 年 12 月 8 日在利雅得欢迎中国国家主席习近平(路透)

为了挽救美国在中东日益减弱的影响力,美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯本周开始对沙特阿拉伯进行为期三天的访问,但推进与沙特阿拉伯和海湾国家的“战略合作”很可能是一场艰苦的战斗。

去年 7 月,拜登总统在沙特阿拉伯出席海湾合作委员会峰会时发表誓言称,美国“不会走开,留下真空由中国、俄罗斯或伊朗来填补”,但这正是正在发生的事情。

 

尽管美国反对,但在过去的一年里,它的地区盟友变得混合起来:他们改善了与北京和德黑兰的关系,并与莫斯科保持了牢固的关系。

尽管拜登政府公开淡化了最近在中国斡旋下沙特阿拉伯与伊朗签署恢复外交关系协议的重要性,但它似乎对中国在石油资源丰富的海湾地区和大中东地区日益增长的影响力感到疯狂。

在过去的二十年里,美国提高了石油和天然气产量,几乎实现了能源独立,它可能不再那么需要海湾石油,但它坚持在该地区负责,以便它能够在发生冲突时切断中国重要能源供应,并为其盟友确保这些供应。

布林肯上个月警告说,“中国代表了我们今天面临的最重要的地缘政治挑战:这个国家有意图,而且越来越有能力挑战我们对自由、开放、安全和繁荣的国际秩序的愿景。”

但该地区的执政者更倾向于北京,而不是华盛顿。

俄罗斯在中东及其他地区的影响力也让美国感到紧张。

厌倦了他们的模棱两可,甚至与俄罗斯串通一气,拜登政府不停在加大对某些中东国家的压力,表明其耐心正在耗尽,美国一直在警告该地区的国家,不要帮助俄罗斯逃避制裁,并要求他们选择站队——否则将面临美国和 G7 国家的愤怒。

但无济于事。

迄今为止,沙特阿拉伯拒绝了美国大幅增加石油产量以降低其市场价格并抵消西方对俄罗斯制裁影响的要求,它与莫斯科保持着良好的关系,并在支持乌克兰方面犹豫不决,据报道,沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼“对华盛顿竖中指”的行为使他在该地区非常受欢迎。

去年,为了回应拜登威胁要惩罚利雅得所谓的蛮横行为,沙特继续接待中国国家主席习近平进行双边会谈,并召开了中国-海湾合作委员会和中国-阿拉伯国家峰会,随后,沙特阿拉伯在中国斡旋下实现了与伊朗的关系正常化,此举正值西方正在加强对德黑兰制裁之时,沙特阿拉伯明显冷落美国,继续修复与叙利亚的关系。

但是,这种对美关系的新态度不仅在利雅得很明显,而且也是一种区域现象,美国的另一个盟友阿联酋也与中国建立了更紧密的关系,改善了与法国的战略关系,并致力于与伊朗、俄罗斯和印度接触,有时,这以牺牲与美国的关系为代价。

整个地区一直在多元化其全球参与,这在其商业关系中非常明显,从 2000 年到 2021 年,中东与中国之间的贸易额从 152 亿美元增长到 2843 亿美元; 同期,与美国的贸易仅从 634 亿美元小幅增长至 984 亿美元。

六个中东国家——包括沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和埃及——最近要求加入中国领导的金砖国家集团,该集团还包括俄罗斯、印度、巴西和南非,尽管西方对俄罗斯实施了不断扩大的制裁制度,但情况仍然如此。

当然,美国在过去三十年一直是中东地区的主导战略力量,今天依然如此,但这在未来三个十年内还会如此吗?

在一个专制政权和普通民众根本无法达成共识的地区,对美国说“不”是一种非常流行的立场,因为大多数人认为它是一个虚伪的帝国主义力量,对人权和民主只是口头上的服务。

这在美国对巴勒斯坦的外交政策中尤为明显,它坚定而无条件地支持巴勒斯坦的殖民者和占领者——以色列。

美国国务卿布林肯在访问利雅得时可能会向沙特阿拉伯施加压力,要求沙特阿拉伯与特拉维夫实现关系正常化,希望降低其要价,据报道,其中包括核民用计划和主要安全保证。

阿联酋、巴林、摩洛哥和苏丹已经以牺牲巴勒斯坦人为代价与以色列实现了关系正常化,以换取美国的让步,例如向阿布扎比出售美国制造的 F-35战斗机,美国承认摩洛哥对西撒哈拉的主权要求, 以及解除美国对喀土穆的制裁,所有这些都是为了让以色列政府不必做出任何“让步”,不必结束对巴勒斯坦长达数十年的占领。

但是,非常贴近普通阿拉伯人内心的巴勒斯坦问题,并不是让阿拉伯公众相信美国是一个应该保持距离的两面派大国的唯一问题。

得益于卫星电视和社交媒体平台,该地区人民亲眼目睹了美国在伊拉克的罪行和美国在阿富汗的屈辱,并不认为它是文明的守护者,更不会认为它是不可战胜的力量,自 9·11 袭击以来,美国在过去 20 年中干预中东的资产负债表坚决不利于它。

总部设在多哈的阿拉伯研究与政策研究中心在 2022 年对 14 个阿拉伯国家进行了一项民意调查,结果显示,78% 的受访者认为该地区最大的威胁和不稳定来源是美国,相比之下,只有 57% 受访者认为伊朗和俄罗斯是威胁和不稳定来源,这两个国家在该地区都有自己的肮脏工作——从叙利亚到伊拉克和也门,这不足为奇。

美国前官员史蒂文·西蒙在其题为《大妄想:美国在中东野心的兴衰》一书中,估计美国已经在战争上浪费了大约 5万亿-7 万亿美元,这导致数百万阿拉伯人和穆斯林死亡,他们的社区遭到破坏,此外,这些冲突已造成数千名美军士兵死亡,数万人受伤,并导致约3万名美国退伍军人自杀。

并非巧合的是,越来越多的中东人(和美国人)同意,该地区与美国脱钩以及美国至少在一定程度上脱离该地区既是可取的,也是不可避免的。

这样的事态发展也将对双方产生严重的长期影响,而且这将取决于美国是否以及如何选择改变其外交政策。

但那将是另外的讨论了。

马尔万·比沙拉 马尔万·比沙拉 半岛电视台高级政治分析师。马尔万•比沙拉是一名作家,关注全球政治,被认为是美国外交政策、中东和国际战略事务权威作家,他曾任巴黎美国大学国际关系学教授。

The Middle East: Goodbye America, hello China?

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/6/6/the-middle-east-goodbye-america-hello-china

The US is losing ground in the region and it has only itself to blame.

Marwan Bishara Marwan Bishara  6 Jun 2023 

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman welcomes Chinese President Xi Jinping in Riyadh on December 8, 2022 [File: Saudi Press Agency via Reuters]

In an attempt to salvage his country’s waning influence in the Middle East, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is embarking on a three-day visit to Saudi Arabia this week. But advancing “strategic cooperation” with his Saudi and Gulf counterparts may well prove an uphill battle.

In July last year, President Joe Biden attended the Gulf Cooperation Council summit in the kingdom and vowed that the United States “will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia, or Iran”. But that is precisely what has been happening.

Despite US objections, the past year has seen its regional allies go hybrid: they have improved relations with Beijing and Tehran and maintained strong ties with Moscow.

Although the Biden administration has publicly downplayed the importance of the recent Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iranian agreement to re-establish diplomatic relations, it seems frantic about the growing Chinese influence in the oil-rich Gulf region and the greater Middle East.

Over the past two decades, the US has ramped up oil and gas production, becoming virtually energy independent. It may no longer need Gulf oil as much, but it insists on being in charge in the region so it is able to cut China off of vital energy supplies in the event of a conflict, and secure them for its allies.

As Blinken warned last month, “China represents the most consequential geopolitical challenge we face today: a country with the intent and, increasingly, the capability to challenge our vision for a free, open, secure, and prosperous international order.”

But Beijing’s autocracy may actually be an easier and better fit for the region’s autocrats than Washington’s democracy.

Russia’s sway in the Middle East and beyond has also made the US nervous.

Fed up with their ambiguity, even complicity with Russia, the Biden administration has been ramping up pressure on certain Middle Eastern states, making clear that its patience is running out. It has been warning countries in the region against helping Russia evade sanctions and demanding they pick sides – or else face the wrath of the US and G7 nations.

But to no avail.

Saudi Arabia has thus far refused the US request to substantially increase oil production to lower its market price and offset the effect of Western sanctions on Russia. It has maintained good relations with Moscow and dragged its feet on supporting Ukraine. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s “middle finger to Washington” has reportedly made him extremely popular in the region.

AD

Last year, in response to Biden’s threats to punish Riyadh for its presumed insolence, the kingdom went on to host the Chinese president, Xi Jinping for bilateral talks and the China-GCC and China-Arab summits. Saudi Arabia then normalised relations with Iran under Chinese auspices, just as the West was tightening sanctions against Tehran, and in a clear snub to the US, went on to repair ties with Syria.

But this new attitude towards relations with the US is not only evident in Riyadh; it is a regional phenomenon. The United Arab Emirates, another US ally, has also cultivated closer ties with China, improved strategic relations with France, and worked on engaging Iran, Russia and India. This, at times, has been at the expense of its relations with the US.

The region as a whole has been diversifying its global engagement. This is quite apparent in its commercial relations. Between 2000 and 2021, trade between the Middle East and China has grown from $15.2bn to $284.3bn; in the same period, trade with the US has increased only modestly from $63.4bn to $98.4bn.

Six Middle Eastern countries – among them Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt – have recently requested to join the Chinese-led BRICS group, which also includes Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa. This is despite the West’s ever-widening sanctions regime imposed on Russia.

Of course, America has been the dominant strategic power in the Middle East the past three decades and remains so today. But will it be in the next three decades?

In a region where autocratic regimes and the general public do not agree on much if anything at all, saying no to America is a very popular stance because the majority believes it is a hypocritical imperial power that pays only lip service to human rights and democracy.

This is particularly apparent in US foreign policy on Palestine, which staunchly and unconditionally supports the Palestinians’ coloniser and occupier – Israel.

On his visit to Riyadh, Secretary Blinken will likely put pressure on Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Tel Aviv, hoping to lower its asking price, which reportedly includes a nuclear civilian programme and major security assurances.

The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan have already normalised relations with Israel at the expense of the Palestinians in return for American concessions, such as the sale of US-made F-35s to Abu Dhabi, US recognition of Moroccan claims over Western Sahara, and the lifting of US sanctions on Khartoum. All so that the Israeli government does not have to make any “concessions” of its own and end its decades-long occupation of Palestine.

But the Palestinian cause, which is quite close to the heart of ordinary Arabs, is not the only issue that has convinced the Arab public that America is a duplicitous power that should be kept at a distance.

Thanks to satellite television and social media platforms, people of the region saw with their own eyes US crimes in Iraq and its humiliation in Afghanistan, and do not think of it as a guardian of civilisation, let alone an invincible power. The balance sheet of US interventions in the Middle East over the past 20 years since the 9/11 attacks is firmly not in its favour.

No wonder that in a 2022 poll conducted by the Doha-based Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in 14 Arab countries, 78 percent of respondents believed that the biggest source of threat and instability in the region was the US. By contrast, only 57 percent thought of Iran and Russia in these terms, both of which have had their own share of dirty work in the region – from Syria to Iraq and Yemen.

In his aptly titled book, Grand Delusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East, former US official Steven Simon estimates the US has wasted some $5-7 trillion on wars that have resulted in the death of millions of Arabs and Muslims, and the devastation of their communities. In addition, these conflicts have killed thousands of US soldiers, injured tens of thousands and led to some 30,000 suicides of US veterans.

It is no coincidence then, that more Middle Easterners (and Americans) agree that the region’s decoupling from America and at least some American disengagement from the region is as desirable as it is inevitable.

Such a turn of events would also be terribly consequential with messy long-term implications for both sides and it would be determined by whether and how America chooses to change its foreign policy.

But that’s another discussion for another day.

Marwan BisharaMarwan Bishara Senior political analyst at Al Jazeera.

Marwan Bishara is an author who writes extensively on global politics and is widely regarded as a leading authority on US foreign policy, the Middle East and international strategic affairs. He was previously a professor of International Relations at the American University of Paris.

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