By WASHINGTON — There are different ways of showing presidential courage. One is getting on a train to visit Kyiv in the middle of the war there. Another is picking up the phone and calling Xi Jinping at a time of sharply deteriorating U.S.-China relations.
There are different ways of showing presidential courage. One is getting on a train to visit Kyiv in the middle of the war there. Another is picking up the phone and calling Xi Jinping at a time of sharply deteriorating U.S.-China relations.
Reaching out to the Chinese leader wouldn’t win President Biden popularity points at home, and it would give Republicans a talking point they would undoubtedly exploit. But it’s the right thing to do regardless of the politics. And it embodies the mature global stewardship that should be part of Biden’s brand as a leader.
I know the objections. Xi will treat Biden’s outreach as a concession and a sign of U.S. weakness. The United States won’t get meaningful benefits. Xi’s ruthlessly self-interested regime will pursue its goals even more aggressively. And Europeans will think that they have a license to dicker with China, too.
展现总统勇气的方式有很多种。 一个是在基辅战争期间乘火车去访问基辅。 另一个是在美中关系急剧恶化之际拿起电话给习近平打电话。
与中国领导人接触不会赢得拜登总统在国内的声望，而且会给共和党人一个他们无疑会利用的话题。 但不管政治如何，这都是正确的做法。 它体现了成熟的全球管理，这应该成为拜登作为领导者品牌的一部分。
我知道反对意见。 习近平会将拜登的外展视为让步和美国软弱的迹象。 美国不会得到有意义的好处。 习冷酷无情的自利政权将更加积极地追求其目标。 欧洲人会认为他们也有资格与中国讨价还价。
Confrontation might indeed lie ahead. But Biden was right last year to try to put a “floor” under this deteriorating relationship. At the Bali summit in November, Xi and Biden both seemed ready to reduce tensions and improve strategic stability.
“I’m looking to manage this competition responsibly,” Biden said afterward. Xi similarly said: “As the leaders of these two great powers, China and the United States, we must play the role setting the direction of the rudder.”
那么，拜登为什么要暗示他现在想与习近平接触呢？ 简单的答案是，华盛顿和北京之间的关系接近现代的最低点，这是因为两国首都的强硬派似乎认为对抗是不可避免的。对抗可能真的就在前方。 但拜登去年试图为这种不断恶化的关系设置一个“地板”是正确的。 在 11 月的巴厘岛峰会上，习近平和拜登似乎都准备缓和紧张局势并提高战略稳定性。
“我希望负责任地管理这场比赛，”拜登赛后表示。 习近平同样说：“作为中美两个大国的领导人，我们要发挥方向舵的作用。”
But the relationship has imploded since, because of bad Chinese policy, a bad U.S. response and just plain bad luck. The balloon overflight was an example of all three, and although it had little military or strategic importance, the fiasco collapsed the post-Bali diplomatic opening that would have sent Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing — and might have set the ground for a Biden-Xi summit.
Xi wanted the Blinken visit; that became clear with China’s semi-apology after its surveillance balloon was discovered drifting across the United States. Blinken canceled the trip, but he hoped to rehabilitate relations (and rebook his flight) in a meeting in Munich last month with Foreign Minister Wang Yi. But that, too, soured, partly because the United States decided to leak to its allies intelligence that China was considering sending weapons to Russia.
但自那以后，由于糟糕的中国政策、糟糕的美国回应以及纯粹的厄运，两国关系已经破裂。 气球飞越是这三者中的一个例子，虽然它没有什么军事或战略重要性，但这场惨败破坏了后巴厘岛的外交开放，这将使国务卿安东尼布林肯前往北京 - 并可能为拜登奠定基础 -习峰会。习希望布林肯访问； 在发现其监视气球飘过美国后，中国的半道歉就说明了这一点。 布林肯取消了这次旅行，但他希望在上个月与外交部长王毅在慕尼黑会面时恢复关系（并重新预订航班）。 但这也很糟糕，部分原因是美国决定向其盟友泄露中国正在考虑向俄罗斯运送武器的情报。
With public warnings to China and Blinken’s private attempt to re-engage, U.S. diplomacy was moving in two directions at once, and not surprisingly, it went nowhere. Meanwhile, with growing GOP attacks on China, and “low confidence” but headline-making intelligence suggesting that covid-19 might have resulted from a lab leak, Washington has been experiencing a “perfect typhoon” that could swamp efforts at dialogue.
So the desired floor under the relationship has now all but collapsed. The current focus of tension involves the U.S. intelligence reporting that China might supply Russia with ammunition to sustain its flagging war in Ukraine. U.S. officials believe that some leaders beneath Xi are wary of this doubling-down on Russia, seeing a stable relationship with the United States and its European allies as a better bet for China than backing a losing, escalation-prone Vladimir Putin. Officials tell me that China hasn’t sent the weapons yet; if it does, Biden will have to take sharp countermeasures.
随着对中国的公开警告和布林肯私下试图重新接触，美国外交同时朝着两个方向发展，毫不奇怪，它毫无进展。 与此同时，随着共和党对中国的攻击越来越多，以及“信心不足”但成为头条新闻的情报表明 covid-19 可能是实验室泄漏造成的，华盛顿一直在经历一场可能淹没对话努力的“完美台风”。
因此，这种关系所期望的底线现在几乎崩溃了。 当前的紧张焦点涉及美国情报部门的报告，称中国可能向俄罗斯提供弹药，以维持其在乌克兰的萎靡不振的战争。 美国官员认为，习近平手下的一些领导人对这种对俄罗斯加倍下注持谨慎态度，认为与美国及其欧洲盟友保持稳定关系比支持失败、容易升级的弗拉基米尔普京对中国来说是更好的选择。 官员告诉我，中国还没有发送武器； 如果是这样，拜登将不得不采取严厉的反制措施。
David Ignatius Biden's best tool for halting a slide in US-China relations? His phone.
https://greensboro.com/david-ignatius-bidens-best-tool-for-halting-a-slide-in-us-china-relations-his-phone/article_0be4d3e6-b93e-11ed-8f67-6ff334b23b98.html
Reaching out to the Chinese leader wouldn’t win President Biden popularity points at home, and it would give Republicans a talking point they would undoubtedly exploit. But it’s the right thing to do regardless of the politics. And it embodies the mature global stewardship that should be part of Biden’s brand as a leader.
I know the objections. Xi will treat Biden’s outreach as a concession and a sign of U.S. weakness. The United States won’t get meaningful benefits. Xi’s ruthlessly self-interested regime will pursue its goals even more aggressively. And Europeans will think that they have a license to dicker with China, too.
So why should Biden signal that he wants to engage Xi now? The simple answer is that the relationship between Washington and Beijing is near its lowest point in modern times, prodded by hard-liners in both capitals who seem to believe confrontation is inevitable.
Confrontation might indeed lie ahead. But Biden was right last year to try to put a “floor” under this deteriorating relationship. At the Bali summit in November, Xi and Biden both seemed ready to reduce tensions and improve strategic stability.
“I’m looking to manage this competition responsibly,” Biden said afterward. Xi similarly said: “As the leaders of these two great powers, China and the United States, we must play the role setting the direction of the rudder.”
华盛顿——展现总统勇气的方式多种多样。 一个是在基辅战争期间乘火车去访问基辅。 另一个是在美中关系急剧恶化之际拿起电话给习近平打电话。
与中国领导人接触不会赢得拜登总统在国内的声望，而且会给共和党人一个他们无疑会利用的话题。 但不管政治如何，这都是正确的做法。 它体现了成熟的全球管理，这应该成为拜登作为领导者品牌的一部分。
我知道反对意见。 习近平会将拜登的外展视为让步和美国软弱的迹象。 美国不会得到有意义的好处。 习冷酷无情的自利政权将更加积极地追求其目标。 欧洲人会认为他们也有资格与中国讨价还价。
那么，拜登为什么要暗示他现在想与习近平接触呢？ 简单的答案是，华盛顿和北京之间的关系接近现代的最低点，这是因为两国首都的强硬派似乎认为对抗是不可避免的。
对抗可能真的就在前方。 但拜登去年试图为这种不断恶化的关系设置一个“地板”是正确的。 在 11 月的巴厘岛峰会上，习近平和拜登似乎都准备缓和紧张局势并提高战略稳定性。
“我希望负责任地管理这场比赛，”拜登赛后表示。 习近平同样说：“作为中美两个大国的领导人，我们要发挥方向舵的作用。”
But the relationship has imploded since, because of bad Chinese policy, a bad U.S. response and just plain bad luck. The balloon overflight was an example of all three, and although it had little military or strategic importance, the fiasco collapsed the post-Bali diplomatic opening that would have sent Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing—and might have set the ground for a Biden-Xi summit.
With public warnings to China and Blinken’s private attempt to re-engage, U.S. diplomacy was moving in two directions at once, and not surprisingly, it went nowhere. Meanwhile, with growing GOP attacks on China, and “low confidence” but headline-making intelligence suggesting that COVID-19 might have resulted from a lab leak, Washington has been experiencing a “perfect typhoon” that could swamp efforts at dialogue.
So the desired floor under the relationship has now all but collapsed. The current focus of tension involves the U.S. intelligence reporting that China might supply Russia with ammunition to sustain its flagging war in Ukraine. U.S. officials believe that some leaders beneath Xi are wary of this doubling-down on Russia, seeing a stable relationship with the U.S. and its European allies as a better bet for China than backing a losing, escalation-prone Vladimir Putin. Officials tell me that China hasn’t sent the weapons yet; if it does, Biden will have to take sharp countermeasures.
That’s why Biden should make that call to Beijing now — because we are on the lip of a significant further deterioration in U.S.-China relations. The audience would be China, and also the countries of the global south such as India, South Africa and Brazil that worry about increasing instability in a world where the United States seems obsessed with great-power conflict but unable to cap rising tensions.
It’s true that the Chinese calibrate U.S. strength. But appearing weak shouldn’t be such a worry for a United States whose military power dwarfs that of its rivals.
Consider the array of U.S.-led power emerging in the Indo-Pacific: U.S. Marines are deploying forward to provide better leverage against any Chinese attack against Taiwan. A rearming Japan is deploying American-made Tomahawk cruise missiles. The Philippines is providing the U.S.with military bases close to Taiwan. Later this month, Biden will formally launch AUKUS, the major new Asian military alliance with Australia and Britain. These strong deterrence moves don’t preclude diplomacy, they enable it.
Biden should close his phone call by inviting Xi for a face-to-face meeting. Such summits amid global tension are high-risk, high-reward. Some of President Ronald Reagan’s advisers thought he was nuts to meet with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1986. But the meeting was a positive inflection point.
Will Republicans howl about any new opening with China? For sure. Would a Biden-Xi meeting produce any meaningful results? No one can say.
Is it worth a try? Absolutely.
华盛顿——展现总统勇气的方式多种多样。 一个是在基辅战争期间乘火车去访问基辅。 另一个是在美中关系急剧恶化之际拿起电话给习近平打电话。
与中国领导人接触不会赢得拜登总统在国内的声望，而且会给共和党人一个他们无疑会利用的话题。 但不管政治如何，这都是正确的做法。 它体现了成熟的全球管理，这应该成为拜登作为领导者品牌的一部分。
我知道反对意见。 习近平会将拜登的外展视为让步和美国软弱的迹象。 美国不会得到有意义的好处。 习冷酷无情的自利政权将更加积极地追求其目标。 欧洲人会认为他们也有资格与中国讨价还价。
那么，拜登为什么要暗示他现在想与习近平接触呢？ 简单的答案是，华盛顿和北京之间的关系接近现代的最低点，这是因为两国首都的强硬派似乎认为对抗是不可避免的。
对抗可能真的就在前方。 但拜登去年试图为这种不断恶化的关系设置一个“地板”是正确的。 在 11 月的巴厘岛峰会上，习近平和拜登似乎都准备缓和紧张局势并提高战略稳定性。
“我希望负责任地管理这场比赛，”拜登赛后表示。 习近平同样说：“作为中美两个大国的领导人，我们要发挥方向舵的作用。”
