黑石2018年十大预测 Blackstone's ten surprises for 2018

黑石发布2018年十大预测！去年的准确度让人虎躯一震

2018-01-04 08:39:24 来源：金融界基金

http://fund.jrj.com.cn/2018/01/04083923894456.shtml

黑石集团（Blackstone Group）顾问服务部副董事长、华尔街知名预言家Byron R. Wien 继续发布新年十大意外事件预言，认为原油在2018年大涨，美元走强……Byron R. Wien 在每年年初给出十大意外事件的做法，已经坚持了33年；Byron R. Wien认为，这些事件发生的可能性超过50%。

Byron R. Wien 对2017年的十大预言：
一、标普500指数达到2500点。
二、美国GDP 增速超过3%。
三、特朗普将在所有问题上摈弃极端的处理方式和立场。
四、美元对日元汇率巨震。
五、通胀达到3%。
六、10年期美债收益率达到4%。
七、欧洲民粹主义抬头，马克龙竞选失败。
八、欧盟解散，欧元被弃。
九、中美贸易关系回暖。
十、中东局势趋于平静。

　　ZeroHedge 评论称，Byron R. Wien对2017年的十大预言基本扑街，最多只有两条变成现实；但这丝毫不影响投资者，继续关注Byron R. Wien对2018年十大“意外惊喜”点评。

2018年十大预测
一、朝鲜停止核试验，但不会放弃现有核武器。
二、民粹主义、部落主义和无政府状态将蔓延到世界各地。在英国，Jeremy Corbyn将成为下一任首相；西班牙加泰罗尼亚仍然将动荡不安；英国脱欧让洲将更加团结，经济更快增长。
三、美元终于复活。美国经济实际增长率将超过3%，再加上特朗普的刺激政策，投资者将重燃对美元计价资产的兴趣，到时欧元兑美元将下跌至1.10，日元兑美元下跌至120。美国跨过企业回流海外资金也将提振美元。
四、美国经济比2017年更加强劲。将导致标普500指数回调10%，将下降至2300点，但由于企业盈利持续向好，经济增长向4%加速，指数将于年底重回3000以上。
五、WTI原油价格上涨到每桶80美元以上。主要受益于全球经济持续复苏和来自发展中市场出乎意料的需求，再加上生产乏力，库存减少，OPEC减产等利好因素刺激。
六、通胀成为一个令人担心的问题。全球经济持续增长将给大众商品价格带来上涨压力，工业化国家劳动力市场紧张将刺激工资上涨。在美国，平均时薪增速将接近4%，CPI将达到3%以上。
七、随着通胀上升，利率开始走高。2018年，美联储将四次上调短期利率，十年期美国国债收益率上升至4%，但由于担心对金融市场造成影响，美联储只能温和地收缩资产负债表。高收益息差将扩大，对股市造成困扰。
八、尽管特朗普不断抨击北美自由贸易协定和伊朗核协议，但它们都将被保留。因为，如果北美自由贸易协定被结束，将导致美国大量岗位流失，对于伊朗核协议，美国的盟友普遍表示支持。随着中国在世界各地影响力的崛起，特朗普将开始意识到，没有签署TPP是一个错误，他将推进更多与亚洲的双边贸易。
九、共和党将在11月中期选举中失去对参议院和众议院的控制权。选民对特朗普总统未能兑现竞选期间做出的诸多承诺感到失望，同时特朗普无尽的推特也将激发越来越多的负面反应。中期选举将转变为一场决定特朗普总统一职能否保留的全民公投。
十、中国将把重点放在信贷问题上，限制商业借贷，经济减速。
此外，Byron R. Wien表示还有另外5大事件，也有成为十大意外事件的潜质。
一、欧洲企业公司盈利能力被投资者重视，远东和新兴市场增长相对于美国市场更快，机构全球投资组合更加包含范围更广。
二、人工智能将获得明显动力，法律和金融专业人员、快餐店和医疗保健行业从业人员的工作将被自动化；
三、网络攻击将更严重，会在一定程度上损害消费者信心。企业、金融机构的安全系统需要有大的升级。
四、欧洲和美国的监管部门开始关注互联网商业模式的创造性破坏，迫于零售商和传统媒体的压力，他们将对亚马逊、Facebook和谷歌开展反竞争行为调查；
五、比特币风险不断扩大，导致监管当局开始采取行动限制交易等。　　

Byron Wien Announces Ten Surprises for 2018

JAN 02, 2018

https://www.blackstone.com/media/press-releases/byron-wien-announces-ten-surprises-for-2018 

New York, January 2, 2018 – Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone, today issued his list of Ten Surprises for 2018. This is the 33rdyear Byron has given his views on a number of economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year. Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.

Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Byron joined Blackstone in September 2009 as a senior advisor to both the firm and its clients in analyzing economic, political, market and social trends.

Byron’s Ten Surprises for 2018 are as follows:

Also-rans:

Every year there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten because either I do not think they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are “probable.”

1. China finally decides that a nuclear capability in the hands of an unpredictable leader on its border is not tolerable even though North Korea is a communist buffer between itself and democratic South Korea. China cuts off all fuel and food shipments to North Korea, which agrees to suspend its nuclear development program but not give up its current weapons arsenal.


2. Populism, tribalism and anarchy spread around the world. In the United Kingdom Jeremy Corbyn becomes the next Prime Minister. In spite of repressive action by the Spanish government, Catalonia remains turbulent. Despite the adverse economic consequences of the Brexit vote, the unintended positive consequence is that it brings continental Europe closer together with more economic cooperation and faster growth.


3. The dollar finally comes to life. Real growth exceeds 3% in the United States, which, coupled with the implementation of some components of the Trump pro-business agenda, renews investor interest in owning dollar-denominated assets, and the euro drops to 1.10 and the yen to 120 against the dollar.  Repatriation of foreign profits held abroad by U.S. companies helps.  


4. The U.S. economy has a better year than 2017, but speculation reaches an extreme and ultimately the S&P 500 has a 10% correction. The index drops toward 2300, partly because of higher interest rates, but ends the year above 3000 since earnings continue to expand and economic growth heads toward 4%. 


5. The price of West Texas Intermediate Crude moves above $80. The price rises because of continued world growth and unexpected demand from developing markets, together with disappointing hydraulic fracking production, diminished inventories, OPEC discipline and only modest production increases from Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq and Iran.


6. Inflation becomes an issue of concern. Continued world GDP growth puts pressure on commodity prices. Tight labor markets in the industrialized countries create wage increases. In the United States, average hourly earnings gains approach 4% and the Consumer Price Index pushes above 3%.


7. With higher inflation, interest rates begin to rise. The Federal Reserve increases short-term rates four times in 2018 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moves toward 4%, but the Fed shrinks its balance sheet only modestly because of the potential impact on the financial markets. High yield spreads widen, causing concern in the equity market.


8. Both NAFTA and the Iran agreement endure in spite of Trump railing against them. Too many American jobs would be lost if NAFTA ended, and our allies universally support continuing the Iran agreement. Trump begins to think that not signing on to the Trans-Pacific Partnership was a mistake as he sees the rise of China’s influence around the world.  He presses for more bilateral trade deals in Asia.


9. The Republicans lose control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the November election. Voters feel disappointed that many promises made during Trump’s presidential campaign were not implemented in legislation and there is a growing negative reaction to his endless Tweets. The mid-term election turns out to be a referendum on the Trump Presidency.


10. Xi Jinping, having broadened his authority at the 19th Party Congress in October, focuses on China’s credit problems and decides to limit business borrowing even if it means slowing the economy down and creating fewer jobs. Real GDP growth drops to 5.5%, with only minor implications for world growth. Xi proclaims this move will ensure the sustainability of China’s growth over the long term.


11. Investors recognize that the earnings of companies in Europe, the Far East and the emerging markets are growing faster than those in the United States while the price earnings ratios in those regions are lower than those in America. Global investments become more broadly represented in institutional portfolios.


12. The Mueller investigation of the 2016 presidential election fails to implicate any members of the Trump family in collusion with Russian operatives.


13. Artificial intelligence gains visible momentum. Service sector jobs are automated, particularly clerks in legal and finance professions, as well as workers in fast food outlets and healthcare. Economists begin to question the unemployment data because the rate drops below 4% while so many people still appear to be out of work and seeking government assistance.


14. Cyberattacks become more prevalent and begin to affect consumer confidence. A major money center bank suspends deposits or withdrawals for three days because its system is penetrated. Numerous retail organizations report that customer personal information has been obtained by hackers. Those invading corporate information systems appear to be smarter and more innovative than the internal employees protecting the computer data, suggesting that the systems themselves need to be upgraded.


15. The regulatory authorities in Europe and the United States finally get concerned about the creative destruction of Internet-related businesses.  As a result of pressure from retailers and traditional media companies, they begin an investigation of anti-competitive practices at Amazon, Facebook and Google.  The public begins to think these companies have too much power.


16. The risks in Bitcoin are so great that regulatory authorities restrict trading.  Among their concerns are: no regulatory oversight; no safety and soundness measures; no recourse in the event of mistaken or miscalculated transactions; high cyber risk; no deposit insurance. (Risk source: Morgan Stanley.)

About Blackstone
Blackstone is one of the world’s leading investment firms. We seek to create positive economic impact and long-term value for our investors, the companies we invest in, and the communities in which we work. We do this by using extraordinary people and flexible capital to help companies solve problems. Our asset management businesses, with over $385 billion in assets under management, include investment vehicles focused on private equity, real estate, public debt and equity, non-investment grade credit, real assets and secondary funds, all on a global basis. Further information is available at www.blackstone.com. Follow Blackstone on Twitter @Blackstone.

The views expressed in this commentary are the personal views of Byron Wien, Vice Chairman in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Blackstone itself. The views expressed reflect the current views of Mr. Wien as of the date hereof and neither Mr. Wien nor Blackstone undertakes to advise you of any changes in the views expressed herein.

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