复习2013 年村长神作：对四大科技股的展望基本验证

看好GOOGL，AMZN， 小心对待FB，  不踩APPL。 佩服！

虽然有些话说得比较圆，  类似算命先生，行话叫两头堵。问兄弟，桃园三结义，独出一支梅！问父母，父在母先亡。问配偶，寡居不能有伴！

问APPL： 等下降的势头停住以后，就可以持有哦了

不由得需要温习一个笑话： 

如何能够活到一百岁？  坚持喝我公司出品的牛奶，一千二百个月即可。

 

发信人: wavelets02 (波士顿), 信区: AAPL
标  题: industry trend
发信站: *** (Tue Jan 15 17:50:09 2013, 美东)

mobile is nothing new anymore, when there are three big player competing
without considering any cost, it is no meat.
Apple will still do well if they could hold up market share and keep
expanding the alliance like facebook etc. it is a try of hardware+os to ally
with services like fb+twitter to fight against OS+services ally with
hardware vendors.
it is just like shifting and combinations, and for a while, I think google
has better power in this kinda game setup (they have too big footprint in
internet services and did successfully in android)

It will be the golden age for google, people start to realize how important
user data is, and how important the traffic is.. google already established
it, and very hard to beat. See how mature the youtube is, and how much
traffic google.com and youtube already generating.. even without talking
about technology power google saved, there is no other company could compete
google at this moment.

in the next few years, value will be squeeze out from the data, and this
trend will make the google value more. very easily, the google will goes
toward 1000.

Job's bio basically disclosed enough secret of why apple was successful,
google  is smart, and they will not give apple that much advantage anymore..
even samsung is learning fast and compete with apple fearlessly.

facebook has potential, but its  technology is not fully proven, and there
is no real threat to google yet. see how google push for login in chrome
browser and bind the user login to android and google plus, google already
forming some kinda good defense and even offense toward facebook.

the wildcard is amazon, it has some niche, and every move amazon made is
kinda not failing so far and it is almost the only company that beat google
in some aspect (cloud) even google did it first.

I would keep consider google as the no.1 pick for current technology sector
big name, amazon is worth to try, fb is dangerous but will grow together
with google's value with the appreciation of data.. apple is a old name
until they could hold the market share long time and accumulate enough data
and related technology.but apple will be able and be worth to hold after
downtrend done.